Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Probabilistic Day Ahead Forecasting Using An Analog Ensemble Approach For Wind Farm Grid Services PDF full book. Access full book title Probabilistic Day Ahead Forecasting Using An Analog Ensemble Approach For Wind Farm Grid Services.
| Author | : Andrew Kumler |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 17 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Wind forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : André Gensler |
| Publisher | : kassel university press GmbH |
| Total Pages | : 216 |
| Release | : 2019-01-16 |
| Genre | : Weights and measures |
| ISBN | : 3737606366 |
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
| Author | : Manajit Sengupta |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 64 |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : Probability forecasts (Meteorology) |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Stéphane Vannitsem |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 364 |
| Release | : 2018-05-17 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 012812248X |
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
| Author | : Jan Kleissl |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 503 |
| Release | : 2013-06-25 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 012397772X |
Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 28 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient features of wind speed: alternating atmospheric regimes, temporal and spatial correlation, diurnal and seasonal non-stationarity, conditional heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussianity. The RST method identifies forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed meteorological observations in the vicinity of the wind farm are used as off-site predictors. The RST technique was applied to 2-hour ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed at the Stateline wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. In July 2003, for instance, the RST forecasts had root-mean-square error (RMSE) 28.6% less than the persistence forecasts. For each month in the test period, the RST forecasts had lower RMSE than forecasts using state-of-the-art vector time series techniques. The RST method provides probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive cumulative distribution functions, and those were well calibrated and sharp. The RST prediction intervals were substantially shorter on average than prediction intervals derived from univariate time series techniques. These results suggest that quality meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts of wind resources. It is anticipated that the RST technique can be successfully applied at wind energy sites all over the world.
| Author | : Georges Kariniotakis |
| Publisher | : Woodhead Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 388 |
| Release | : 2017-09-29 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 0081005059 |
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
| Author | : Reza Arghandeh |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 450 |
| Release | : 2024-07-01 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 0443219516 |
Big Data Application in Power Systems, Second Edition presents a thorough update of the previous volume, providing readers with step-by-step guidance in big data analytics utilization for power system diagnostics, operation, and control. Bringing back a team of global experts and drawing on fresh, emerging perspectives, this book provides cutting-edge advice for meeting today’s challenges in this rapidly accelerating area of power engineering. Divided into three parts, this book begins by breaking down the big picture for electric utilities, before zooming in to examine theoretical problems and solutions in detail. Finally, the third section provides case studies and applications, demonstrating solution troubleshooting and design from a variety of perspectives and for a range of technologies. Readers will develop new strategies and techniques for leveraging data towards real-world outcomes. Including five brand new chapters on emerging technological solutions, Big Data Application in Power Systems, Second Edition remains an essential resource for the reader aiming to utilize the potential of big data in the power systems of the future. Provides a total refresh to include the most up-to-date research, developments, and challenges Focuses on practical techniques, including rapidly modernizing monitoring systems, measurement data availability, big data handling and machine learning approaches for processing high dimensional, heterogeneous, and spatiotemporal data Engages with cross-disciplinary lessons, drawing on the impact of intersectional technology including statistics, computer science, and bioinformatics Includes five brand new chapters on hot topics, ranging from uncertainty decision-making to features, selection methods, and the opportunities provided by social network data
| Author | : Ian T. Jolliffe |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 257 |
| Release | : 2003-08-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0470864419 |
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
| Author | : Michael L. Stein |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 263 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1461214947 |
A summary of past work and a description of new approaches to thinking about kriging, commonly used in the prediction of a random field based on observations at some set of locations in mining, hydrology, atmospheric sciences, and geography.
