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| Author | : Abdur R. Chowdhury |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Abdur R. Chowdhury |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Abdur Chowdhury |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies. A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade. This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model. Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the effect is relatively small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.
| Author | : Abdur R. Chowdhury |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9789516868557 |
This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies. A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade. This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model. Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the effect is relatively small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings. Published in: Comparative Economic Studies vol. 46 no. 4 (2004) pp. 487-514, ISSN 0888-7233 (Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?).
| Author | : Abdur R. Chowdhury |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : Saving and investment |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mr.Paul Cashin |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 1998-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 145197504X |
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
| Author | : Norbert Funke |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.
| Author | : Paul Anthony Cashin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current account, depending on whether the resulting income effects are greater or less than the resulting substitution effects. The substitution effects involve both intertemporally substituting consumption and intratemporally substituting consumption between importables and nontradables. The relative strength of these substitution effects is estimated using data for five OECD countries during 1970/95; both are found to exert large and significant effects on the current account balance.
| Author | : Jonathan D. Ostry |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 26 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on the values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. Empirical estimates of these two parameters are obtained using data from a sample of 13 developing countries, and then used to draw implications for the response of private saving to transitory terms of trade shocks.
| Author | : Paul Cashin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : Balance of payments |
| ISBN | : 9780732509354 |
