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Principles and Prediction

Principles and Prediction
Author: Mushira Eid
Publisher: John Benjamins Publishing
Total Pages: 403
Release: 1993-03-25
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 9027276978
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The volume is divided into four sections: typology, syntax, discourse and phonology. Two of the typology papers study the structure and organization of category systems (Joseph Greenberg, Linda Schwartz); the third discusses language typology and universals from the perspective of language acquisition (Fred Eckman). The eight papers in the syntax section are of three types. Edith Moravcsik and James Tai discuss 'general' issues of linguistic theory/domain. Four papers (Mushira Eid, Michael Kac, Nancy Hedberg, Larry Hutchinson) address specific analyses and their implications from language-particular and theoretical perspectives. The papers by Deborah Dahl and Thomas Rindflesch relate theoretical concepts and analyses to natural language processing. In the section on discourse, the contributions by Anita Barry and Amy Sheldon deal with interpersonal conflict; George Yule discusses the selection between direct and indirect speech forms. Helga Delisle and Cynthia Clamons consider ways in which choices among, or variation in, some grammatical and semantic categories may be explainable on pragmatic and discourse grounds. The phonology papers are focused on two major themes: underspecification and borrowing. Four of the articles address the issue of underspecification in phonological representations (Daniel Dinnsen, Joseph Stemberger, Janet Bing, Gregory Iverson). In the other two papers questions of borrowing are discussed, in Nancy Stenson's contribution from a synchronic perspective, and in Gunter Schaarsmidt's paper from a historical one. The volume is completed by a subject index and a language index.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117
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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Time Predictions

Time Predictions
Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2018-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319749536
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This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

Prediction of Protein Structure and the Principles of Protein Conformation

Prediction of Protein Structure and the Principles of Protein Conformation
Author: G.D. Fasman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 796
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1461315719
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The prediction of the conformation of proteins has developed from an intellectual exercise into a serious practical endeavor that has great promise to yield new stable enzymes, products of pharmacological significance, and catalysts of great potential. With the application of predic tion gaining momentum in various fields, such as enzymology and immunology, it was deemed time that a volume be published to make available a thorough evaluation of present methods, for researchers in this field to expound fully the virtues of various algorithms, to open the field to a wider audience, and to offer the scientific public an opportunity to examine carefully its successes and failures. In this manner the practitioners of the art could better evaluate the tools and the output so that their expectations and applications could be more realistic. The editor has assembled chapters by many of the main contributors to this area and simultaneously placed their programs at three national resources so that they are readily available to those who wish to apply them to their personal interests. These algorithms, written by their originators, when utilized on pes or larger computers, can instantaneously take a primary amino acid sequence and produce a two-or three-dimensional artistic image that gives satisfaction to one's esthetic sensibilities and food for thought concerning the structure and function of proteins. It is in this spirit that this volume was envisaged.

Principles of Prediction

Principles of Prediction
Author: Anushka Jasraj
Publisher: Context
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre: Man-woman relationships
ISBN: 9789389648713
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Principles of Forecasting

Principles of Forecasting
Author: J.S. Armstrong
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 840
Release: 2001-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0306476304
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Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Author: Andrew Robertson
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 585
Release: 2018-10-19
Genre: Science
ISBN: 012811715X
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The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

First-Principles Prediction of Structures and Properties in Crystals

First-Principles Prediction of Structures and Properties in Crystals
Author: Dominik Kurzydlowsk
Publisher: MDPI
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2019-10-25
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3039216708
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The term “first-principles calculations” is a synonym for the numerical determination of the electronic structure of atoms, molecules, clusters, or materials from ‘first principles’, i.e., without any approximations to the underlying quantum-mechanical equations. Although numerous approximate approaches have been developed for small molecular systems since the late 1920s, it was not until the advent of the density functional theory (DFT) in the 1960s that accurate “first-principles” calculations could be conducted for crystalline materials. The rapid development of this method over the past two decades allowed it to evolve from an explanatory to a truly predictive tool. Yet, challenges remain: complex chemical compositions, variable external conditions (such as pressure), defects, or properties that rely on collective excitations—all represent computational and/or methodological bottlenecks. This Special Issue comprises a collection of papers that use DFT to tackle some of these challenges and thus highlight what can (and cannot yet) be achieved using first-principles calculations of crystals.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
Total Pages: 331
Release: 2015-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 080413670X
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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.