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Prediction of Stock Market Index Movements with Machine Learning

Prediction of Stock Market Index Movements with Machine Learning
Author: Nazif AYYILDIZ
Publisher: Özgür Publications
Total Pages: 121
Release: 2023-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 975447821X
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The book titled "Prediction of Stock Market Index Movements with Machine Learning" focuses on the performance of machine learning methods in forecasting the future movements of stock market indexes and identifying the most advantageous methods that can be used across different stock exchanges. In this context, applications have been conducted on both developed and emerging market stock exchanges. The stock market indexes of developed countries such as NYSE 100, NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX 30, FTSE MIB, TSX; and the stock market indexes of emerging countries such as SSE, BOVESPA, RTS, NIFTY 50, IDX, IPC, and BIST 100 were selected. The movement directions of these stock market indexes were predicted using decision trees, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, logistic regression, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks methods. Daily dataset from 01.01.2012 to 31.12.2021, along with technical indicators, were used as input data for analysis. According to the results obtained, it was determined that artificial neural networks were the most effective method during the examined period. Alongside artificial neural networks, logistic regression and support vector machines methods were found to predict the movement direction of all indexes with an accuracy of over 70%. Additionally, it was noted that while artificial neural networks were identified as the best method, they did not necessarily achieve the highest accuracy for all indexes. In this context, it was established that the performance of the examined methods varied among countries and indexes but did not differ based on the development levels of the countries. As a conclusion, artificial neural networks, logistic regression, and support vector machines methods are recommended as the most advantageous approaches for predicting stock market index movements.

Deep Learning Tools for Predicting Stock Market Movements

Deep Learning Tools for Predicting Stock Market Movements
Author: Renuka Sharma
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2024-05-14
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1394214308
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DEEP LEARNING TOOLS for PREDICTING STOCK MARKET MOVEMENTS The book provides a comprehensive overview of current research and developments in the field of deep learning models for stock market forecasting in the developed and developing worlds. The book delves into the realm of deep learning and embraces the challenges, opportunities, and transformation of stock market analysis. Deep learning helps foresee market trends with increased accuracy. With advancements in deep learning, new opportunities in styles, tools, and techniques evolve and embrace data-driven insights with theories and practical applications. Learn about designing, training, and applying predictive models with rigorous attention to detail. This book offers critical thinking skills and the cultivation of discerning approaches to market analysis. The book: details the development of an ensemble model for stock market prediction, combining long short-term memory and autoregressive integrated moving average; explains the rapid expansion of quantum computing technologies in financial systems; provides an overview of deep learning techniques for forecasting stock market trends and examines their effectiveness across different time frames and market conditions; explores applications and implications of various models for causality, volatility, and co-integration in stock markets, offering insights to investors and policymakers. Audience The book has a wide audience of researchers in financial technology, financial software engineering, artificial intelligence, professional market investors, investment institutions, and asset management companies.

Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning

Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning
Author: Prince Vipulbhai Patel
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:
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Stock market trading has gained popularity in today's world with the advancement in technology and social media. With the help of today's technology we can aim to predict the stock market for the future value of stocks. To make informed predictions, time series analysis is used by most stock brokers around the world. This paper explains and analyzes the prediction of a stock by using machine learning. In this paper, I propose a machine learning approach that will be trained from the available stock data by using acquired knowledge for a prediction with accuracy. In this context, the study will use a machine learning technique called Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short term memory (LSTM) to predict stock prices.

How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market

How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market
Author: Lokesh Badolia
Publisher: Educreation Publishing
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2016-10-27
Genre: Self-Help
ISBN:
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This book is well-researched by the author, in which he has shared the experience and knowledge of some very much experienced and renowned entities from stock market. We want that everybody should have the knowledge regarding the different aspects of stock market, which would encourage people to invest and earn without any fear. This book is just a step forward toward the knowledge of market.

Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network

Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network
Author: Joish Bosco
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 76
Release: 2018-09-18
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3668800456
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Project Report from the year 2018 in the subject Computer Science - Technical Computer Science, , course: Computer Science, language: English, abstract: Modeling and Forecasting of the financial market have been an attractive topic to scholars and researchers from various academic fields. The financial market is an abstract concept where financial commodities such as stocks, bonds, and precious metals transactions happen between buyers and sellers. In the present scenario of the financial market world, especially in the stock market, forecasting the trend or the price of stocks using machine learning techniques and artificial neural networks are the most attractive issue to be investigated. As Giles explained, financial forecasting is an instance of signal processing problem which is difficult because of high noise, small sample size, non-stationary, and non-linearity. The noisy characteristics mean the incomplete information gap between past stock trading price and volume with a future price. The stock market is sensitive with the political and macroeconomic environment. However, these two kinds of information are too complex and unstable to gather. The above information that cannot be included in features are considered as noise. The sample size of financial data is determined by real-world transaction records. On one hand, a larger sample size refers a longer period of transaction records; on the other hand, large sample size increases the uncertainty of financial environment during the 2 sample period. In this project, we use stock data instead of daily data in order to reduce the probability of uncertain noise, and relatively increase the sample size within a certain period of time. By non-stationarity, one means that the distribution of stock data is various during time changing. Non-linearity implies that feature correlation of different individual stocks is various. Efficient Market Hypothesis was developed by Burton G. Malkiel in 1991.

Learning and Soft Computing

Learning and Soft Computing
Author: Vojislav Kecman
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 556
Release: 2001
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9780262112550
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This textbook provides a thorough introduction to the field of learning from experimental data and soft computing. Support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks (NN) are the mathematical structures, or models, that underlie learning, while fuzzy logic systems (FLS) enable us to embed structured human knowledge into workable algorithms. The book assumes that it is not only useful, but necessary, to treat SVM, NN, and FLS as parts of a connected whole. Throughout, the theory and algorithms are illustrated by practical examples, as well as by problem sets and simulated experiments. This approach enables the reader to develop SVM, NN, and FLS in addition to understanding them. The book also presents three case studies: on NN-based control, financial time series analysis, and computer graphics. A solutions manual and all of the MATLAB programs needed for the simulated experiments are available.

Stock Market Price Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques

Stock Market Price Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques
Author: Mahfuz Islam Khan Jabed
Publisher: Ocleno
Total Pages: 172
Release: 2024-02-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Predicting stock market prices is a challenging task in the financial sector, where the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits the impossibility of accurate prediction due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of stock price behaviour. However, introducing Machine Learning algorithms has shown the feasibility of stock market price forecasting. This study employs advanced Machine Learning models that can predict stock price movements with the right level of accuracy if the correct parameter tuning and appropriate predictor models are developed. In this research work, the LSTM model, which is a type of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), time series forecasting Facebook Prophet algorithm and Random Forest Regressor model have been implemented on 10 Dhaka Stock Market (DSEbd) listed companies and six international giants for predicting the stock and forecasting the future price. The dataset of domestic companies is extracted from the graphical representation of the DSEbd website, and the international companies' dataset is imported from Yahoo Finance. In this experiment, Facebook Prophet demonstrates a long period of forecasting with reasonable accuracy, capturing daily, weekly, and yearly seasonality, including holiday effects for market trend analysis. Remarkably, the LSTM model exhibits significant accuracy, yielding the best results with evaluation metrics, including RMSE (0.35), MAPE (0.50%), and MAE (0.30). The experimental results underscore the efficiency of LSTM for future stock forecasting, observed over 15 days of upcoming market prices. A comparison of the results shows that the LSTM model efficiently forecasts the next day's closing price.

Forecasting Stock Index Movement

Forecasting Stock Index Movement
Author: Manish Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:
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There exists vast research articles which predict the stock market as well pricing of stock index financial instruments but most of the proposed models focus on the accurate forecasting of the levels (i.e. value) of the underlying stock index. There is a lack of studies examining the predictability of the direction/sign of stock index movement. Given the notion that a prediction with little forecast error does not necessarily translate into capital gain, this study is an attempt to predict the direction of Samp;P CNX NIFTY Market Index of the National Stock Exchange, one of the fastest growing financial exchanges in developing Asian countries. Random forest and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are very specific type of machine learning method, and are promising tools for the prediction of financial time series. The tested classification models, which predict direction, include linear discriminant analysis, logit, artificial neural network, random forest and SVM. Empirical experimentation suggests that the SVM outperforms the other classification methods in terms of predicting the direction of the stock market movement and random forest method outperforms neural network, discriminant analysis and logit model used in this study.

Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning
Author: Amir Ebrahimi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre: Computer science
ISBN:
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Over the last century, the stock market has had several notable growths and declines. Prediction and analysis of financial markets, such as Stock Market prediction, have always been challenging for investors worldwide due to the non-linear nature of financial markets. With the help of Data Science, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning, prediction in Stock Market has become feasible and more reliable. This research aims to find the most accurate models for Stock Market prediction by utilizing machine learning and deep learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest Regression. Several technical analysis indicators are utilized in the models as features to improve the accuracy of the models. In addition, several transactional signals are generated and used as input features into each prediction model. Our models' training and testing performance are evaluated using Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) to find the average error for each model. The evaluations indicate how the models are efficient for predicting the stock price.