Predicting The Unpredictable PDF Download

Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Predicting The Unpredictable PDF full book. Access full book title Predicting The Unpredictable.

Rock Breaks Scissors

Rock Breaks Scissors
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
Total Pages: 266
Release: 2014-06-03
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0316228087

Download Rock Breaks Scissors Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.


Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable
Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2016-11-08
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0691173303

Download Predicting the Unpredictable Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.


The Physics of Wall Street

The Physics of Wall Street
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Total Pages: 309
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0547317271

Download The Physics of Wall Street Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the "solution" to--not the source of--our current economic woes.


The Physics of Finance

The Physics of Finance
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: Short Books
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: Forecasting
ISBN: 9781780721392

Download The Physics of Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

A book which reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance.


Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable
Author: Elizabeth A. Kay
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1978
Genre: Lithography, American
ISBN:

Download Predicting the Unpredictable Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle


Software Estimation Without Guessing

Software Estimation Without Guessing
Author: George Dinwiddie
Publisher: Pragmatic Bookshelf
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2019-12-19
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1680507419

Download Software Estimation Without Guessing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Estimating software development often produces more angst than value, but it doesn't have to. Identify the needs behind estimate requests and determine how to meet those needs simply and easily. Choose estimation techniques based on current needs and available information, gaining benefit while reducing cost and effort. Detect bad assumptions that might sink your project if you don't adjust your plans. Discover what to do when an estimate is wrong, how to recover, and how to use that knowledge for future planning. Learn to communicate about estimates in a healthy and productive way, maximizing advantage to the organization and minimizing damage to the people. In a world where most developers hate estimation and most managers fear disappointment with the results, there is hope for both. It requires giving up some widely held misconceptions. Let go of the notion that "an estimate is an estimate" and estimate for the particular need you, and your organization, have. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and reestimate frequently if it's important. When reality differs from your estimate, don't lament; mine that disappointment for the gold that can be the longer-term jackpot. Estimate in comparison to past experience, by modeling the work mathematically, or a hybrid of both. Learn strategies for effective decomposition of work and aspects of the work that likely affect your estimates. Hedge your bets by comparing the results of different approaches. Find out what to do when an estimate proves wrong. And they will. They're estimates, after all. You'll discover that you can use estimates to warn you of danger so you can take appropriate action in time. Learn some crucial techniques to understand and communicate with those who need to understand. Address both the technical and sociological aspects of estimation, and you'll help your organization achieve its desired goals with less drama and more benefit. What You Need: No software needed, just your past experience and concern for the outcomes.


Megadisasters

Megadisasters
Author: Florin Diacu
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691133506

Download Megadisasters Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The history and science behind efforts to predict major disasters, from tsunamis to stock market crashes Can we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and devastated the city of New Orleans. The recent global financial crisis has cost corporations and ordinary people around the world billions of dollars. Megadisasters is a book that asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction. Each chapter of this exciting and eye-opening book explores a particular type of cataclysmic event and the research surrounding it, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, rapid climate change, collisions with asteroids or comets, pandemics, and financial crashes. Florin Diacu tells the harrowing true stories of people impacted by these terrible events, and of the scientists racing against time to predict when the next big disaster will strike. He describes the mathematical models that are so critical to understanding the laws of nature and foretelling potentially lethal phenomena, the history of modeling and its prospects for success in the future, and the enormous challenges to scientific prediction posed by the chaos phenomenon, which is the high instability that underlies many processes around us. Yielding new insights into the perils that can touch every one of us, Megadisasters shows how the science of predicting disasters holds the promise of a safer and brighter tomorrow.


Predicting Personality

Predicting Personality
Author: Drew D'Agostino
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 249
Release: 2019-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119630967

Download Predicting Personality Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The ultimate playbook for using artificial intelligence to communicate effectively, build teams, and win customers Not long ago, we imagined a hyper-connected world full of trust and openness—a world where effortless communication would bring about a new understanding between people everywhere. Judging from our current environment, this vision of the future may have been overly optimistic. With infinite channels and countless voices flooding them with messages, most people have become highly skeptical and guarded by necessity. As a result, communication is much harder than ever before. Despite the unprecedented connectivity enabled by modern technology, we are far less likely to trust and to invest the time needed to build strong relationships. How can we use technology to reverse this trend? A groundbreaking new branch of artificial intelligence—Personality AI—may be the answer. Combining traditional machine learning, data analytics, and behavioral psychology, Personality AI helps professional communicators tear down walls, establish trust with their audiences, and utilize data to build meaningful relationships, strengthen empathy, and win more customers. Predicting Personality is a practical, real-world playbook for any individual or business whose success hinges on the ability to communicate effectively and build teams. Authors Drew D’Agostino and Greg Skloot—CEO and President, respectively, of Crystal, the app that tells you anyone's personality—show you how businesses can leverage Personality AI and machine learning to grow faster and communicate more effectively than was previously possible. This reader-friendly guide teaches you what Personality AI is, how it works, and demonstrates its practical applications in both life and business. This book: ● Explains how to understand personality types in various contexts, including sales, recruiting, coaching ● Provides guidelines for using personality data to learn and execute ● Explores ethics and compliance considerations surrounding the use of Personality AI ● Offers valuable insights from a leader in the business applications of Personality AI Predicting Personality: Using AI to Understand People and Win More Business is a must-have guide for C-suite executives, sales and marketing professionals, coaches, recruiters, and business owners.


Mastering the Unpredictable

Mastering the Unpredictable
Author: Keith D. Swenson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre: Knowledge management
ISBN: 9780929652122

Download Mastering the Unpredictable Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. Here are examples of what recognized experts have have recently written on the topic: Advancing to support more knowledge work is the goal of many organizations, thus there is a new groundswell of activity around unstructured processes. - Jim Sinur, VP of Research, Gartner I think a sea change is coming in the process world. -Connie Moore, Research Vice President, Forrester The sea of change Moore refers to is about technology that is able to support knowledge workers. The work of a knowledge worker is by its nature unpredictable and can not be handled by more formalized process definition techniques. For executives and managers of knowledge workers, "Mastering the Unpredictable" will: Explain the need and why previous technological approaches don't meet the need Explain the current technology gap, and the new technology that can close the gap Lay out the options that can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their organizations Equip them to best take advantage of this evolving trend"


Timefulness

Timefulness
Author: Marcia Bjornerud
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 220
Release: 2020-02-11
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 069120263X

Download Timefulness Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Explains why an awareness of Earth's temporal rhythms is critical to planetary survival and offers suggestions for how to create a more time-literate society.