Predicting Sell Side Analysts Relative Earnings Forecast Accuracy When It Matters Most PDF Download
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| Author | : Niklas Blümke |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Predicting Sell-Side Analysts' Relative Earnings Forecast Accuracy When It Matters Most Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We introduce a novel framework to predict the relative accuracy of sell-side analysts' annual earnings forecasts out-of-sample. Prior studies only evaluate forecasts shortly before the corresponding earnings release. In contrast, our study is the first to provide long-term predictions which are of particular value for both investors and academics. Overall, we show that analysts classified as superior outperform their inferior counterparts by 8.4 percent, on average. The prediction performance is even more pronounced for longer-term forecasts and for firms with high dispersion of analysts' forecasts, that is, when the identification of superior forecasts matters most. Moreover, we challenge the conclusion of existing literature that characteristics reflecting an analyst's skill set are not helpful to obtain better predictions. In particular, when evaluating forecasts which draw on similar information sets, we find that a model based on analyst characteristics outperforms a model focusing simply on the forecast horizon, for example.
| Author | : Sebastian Gell |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 144 |
| Release | : 2012-03-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3834939374 |
Download Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
| Author | : Tanja Klettke |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business |
| Total Pages | : 120 |
| Release | : 2014-04-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3658056347 |
Download New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
| Author | : Xuan Wang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 90 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : Electronic dissertations |
| ISBN | : 9781085656627 |
Download The Informational Role of Sell-side Analysts' Forecast Horizon Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This dissertation explores the informational role of sell-side analysts' change in forecasting horizon. I find that portfolios formed by buying stocks with large increase in analyst horizon and shorting stocks with large decrease in analyst horizon generate superior future return. Horizon change has information incremental to analyst earnings forecast and recommendation revisions, as well as firm fundamentals. Large increase in horizon mainly drives the result. I find that analysts who contribute to strong horizon increase are associated with higher forecast accuracy. This increase is likely associated with the career concerns of inexperienced analysts. The return predictability associated with analyst forecast horizon change exists in the information environment of high liquidity and low volatility, at the times when analyst forecasts are the most accurate. Moreover, analyst forecast horizon is partially related to analysts' profitability prediction and firm risk assessment, although the horizon change, the component predictable by firm fundamentals notwithstanding, is still able to predict return in the short-run. Overall, the findings reported in this dissertation support the view that sell-side analysts are important rational-information providers in the financial industry.
| Author | : Patricia C. O'Brien |
| Publisher | : Forgotten Books |
| Total Pages | : 74 |
| Release | : 2018-02-26 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780666405524 |
Download Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations (Classic Reprint) Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Excerpt from Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations Analysts' forecasts of earnings are increasingly used in accounting and finance research as expectations data, to proxy for the unobservable market expectation of a future 'realization. 'since a diverse set of forecasts is available at any time for a given firm's earnings. Composites are used to distill the information from the diverse set into a single expectation. This paper considers the relative merits of several composite forecasts as expectations data. One of the primary results is that the most current forecast available outperforms more commonly used aggregations such as the mean or the median. Mthis result is consistent-with forecasters incorporating information from others' previous predictions into their own. It also suggests that the forecast date, which previous research has largely ignored, is a characteristic relevant for distinguishing better forecasts. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
| Author | : Patricia C. O'Brien |
| Publisher | : Forgotten Books |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2017-12-07 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780332528458 |
Download Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Current databases of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings include predictions from thousands of individuals employed at hundreds of financial service institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether it is possible to distinguish forecasters with superior ability on the basis of ex Egg; forecast accuracy from panel data. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
| Author | : Niklas Blümke |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Three Essays on the Earnings Forecast Accuracy of Sell-side Analysts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Michael B. Mikhail |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We investigate if earnings forecast accuracy matters to security analysts by examining its association with analyst turnover. Controlling for firm- and time-period effects, forecast horizon, and industry forecasting experience, we find that an analyst is more likely to turn over if his forecast accuracy is lower than his peers. We find no association between an analyst's probability of turnover and his absolute forecast accuracy. We also investigate another observable measure of the analyst's performance, the profitability of his stock recommendations. There is no statistical relation between the absolute or relative profitability of an analyst's stock recommendations and his probability of turnover. We interpret our findings as indicating that forecast accuracy is important to analysts.
| Author | : Patricia C O'Brien |
| Publisher | : Legare Street Press |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2023-07-18 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781020791277 |
Download Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book provides a detailed analysis of the accuracy of forecasts made by individual analysts across nine different industries. It explores the factors that contribute to forecast accuracy and provides insights into how these factors can be used to improve forecasting performance. The author, Patricia C. O'Brien, is a well-respected economist and her research has significant implications for businesses and investors who rely on forecasts in their decision-making processes. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
| Author | : Richard H. Thaler |
| Publisher | : Russell Sage Foundation |
| Total Pages | : 628 |
| Release | : 1993-08-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780871548443 |
Download Advances in Behavioral Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Modern financial markets offer the real world's best approximation to the idealized price auction market envisioned in economic theory. Nevertheless, as the increasingly exquisite and detailed financial data demonstrate, financial markets often fail to behave as they should if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors that populate financial theories. These markets anomalies have spawned a new approach to finance, one which as editor Richard Thaler puts it, "entertains the possibility that some agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Advances in Behavioral Finance collects together twenty-one recent articles that illustrate the power of this approach. These papers demonstrate how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. To take several examples, Werner De Bondt and Thaler find an explanation for superior price performance of firms with poor recent earnings histories in the tendencies of investors to overreact to recent information. Richard Roll traces the negative effects of corporate takeovers on the stock prices of the acquiring firms to the overconfidence of managers, who fail to recognize the contributions of chance to their past successes. Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny show how the difficulty of establishing a reliable reputation for correctly assessing the value of long term capital projects can lead investment analysis, and hence corporate managers, to focus myopically on short term returns. As a testing ground for assessing the empirical accuracy of behavioral theories, the successful studies in this landmark collection reach beyond the world of finance to suggest, very powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. Advances in Behavioral Finance is a solid beachhead for behavioral work in the financial arena and a clear promise of wider application for behavioral economics in the future.
