Predicting Presidential Elections And Other Things Second Edition PDF Download
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| Author | : Ray Fair |
| Publisher | : Stanford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 234 |
| Release | : 2011-12-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0804778027 |
Download Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
| Author | : Ray C. Fair |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 168 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : |
Download Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Allan J. Lichtman |
| Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield |
| Total Pages | : 246 |
| Release | : 2024-07-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Download Predicting the Next President Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
| Author | : Randall J. Jones |
| Publisher | : Longman Publishing Group |
| Total Pages | : 188 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : |
Download Who Will be in the White House? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.
| Author | : Allan Lichtman |
| Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers |
| Total Pages | : 219 |
| Release | : 2008-02-15 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1461644577 |
Download The Keys to the White House Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
| Author | : Rein Taagepera |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press on Demand |
| Total Pages | : 337 |
| Release | : 2007-08-23 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0199287740 |
Download Predicting Party Sizes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Predicting Party Sizes connects party systems and government duration to electoral systems. This book provides an overview of electoral systems, worldwide, and supplies evidence for models that tie simple electoral systems to the number and sizes of parties and government duration.
| Author | : James E. Campbell |
| Publisher | : Texas A&M University Press |
| Total Pages | : 337 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1603444475 |
Download The American Campaign, Second Edition Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's "theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell's cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists' ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides:a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;a historical summary of many of America's important presidential elections;a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
| Author | : Robert S. Erikson |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 221 |
| Release | : 2012-08-24 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0226922162 |
Download The Timeline of Presidential Elections Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
| Author | : Steven J. Rosenstone |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 720 |
| Release | : 1979 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Forecasting Presidential Elections Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Alexander S. Belenky |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 165 |
| Release | : 2016-11-15 |
| Genre | : Law |
| ISBN | : 3319446967 |
Download Who Will Be the Next President? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book addresses the peculiarities of the current presidential election system not yet addressed in other publications. It argues that any rules for electing a President that may have a chance to replace the current ones should provide an equal representation of states as equal members of the Union, and of the nation as a whole. This book analyzes the National Popular Vote plan and shows that this plan may violate the Supreme Court decisions on the equality of votes cast in statewide popular elections held to choose state electors. That is, the National Popular Vote plan may violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The book proposes a new election system in which the will of the states and the will of the nation as a whole are determined by direct popular elections for President and Vice President in the 50 states and in D.C. This system a) would elect President a candidate who is the choice of both the nation as a whole and of the states as equal members of the Union, b) would let the current system elect a President only if the nation as a whole and the states as equal members of the Union fail to agree on a common candidate, and c) would encourage the candidates to campaign nationwide. The second edition has been updated to include a proposal on how to make established non-major party presidential candidates and independent candidates welcome participants in national televised presidential debates with the major-party candidates.
