Predicting And Managing Climate Driven Range Shifts In Plants PDF Download

Climate-driven environmental changes influence the spatial spread, persistence, and community dynamics of plant populations. Ecological theory has focused on determining which populations will persist and spread in response to these changes and how they will do so. I build on this theory by investigating how climate change affects the mechanisms that influence the spread of invasions, how structured plant populations keep pace with climate change, and if communities of native plants can recover after a biological invasion in the face of climate change. First, I develop a spatial population model to investigate how climate change affects the spread of ecosystem engineers, which are organisms that change the availability of resources in their environment. I apply this model to salt marsh grasses, which engineer their environment by increasing marsh elevation via sediment accumulation. I find that climate-driven sea-level rise reverses the conditions that promote the spread of these ecosystem engineers. Next, I develop a spatial model of a stage-structured plant population, which shifts in response to climate change. I use this model to determine if older trees left behind when the habitat shifts play any ecological role in the population. I find that these zombie forests are critical to the persistence of the population, dispersing seeds into the core population as it moves. Finally, I investigate how a series of extreme climate events, including drought, fire, and extreme precipitation, affect the ability of native plant communities to recover after removal of an invasive species. Analyzing seven years of field data, I find that the recovery of native plant communities after invader removal is resilient to major climate perturbations. Together, these studies identify conditions and mechanisms that limit the spread of plant invasions and promote the persistence of vulnerable plant populations in the face of climate change.