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Post Earnings Announcement Drift, a Price Signal?

Post Earnings Announcement Drift, a Price Signal?
Author: Julien Messias
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the robustness of post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) on a price signal perspective, unlike the traditional literature that focuses on fundamental signal. The studied period is 2003-2015, for four main US indices. The results suggest that some economic agents are too slow to integrate the information, although they still have a major market impact. We find a strong empirical evidence of the preeminence of this bias for Momentum stocks rather than blue-chips or non-Momentum small-caps. Even by challenging the strategy, the conclusion remains strong with abnormal returns linked to such market inefficiency, with better returns for positive signals than negative ones. We choose Nasdaq Composite as the backbone of our development as it is the closest index to Uncia's field of expertise. For indices known as Momentum, we find strong predictability of the systematic net exposure, the latter being a consequence of the long and short positions implied by the earnings signals.


Underreaction Or Overreaction

Underreaction Or Overreaction
Author: Abdulaziz M. Alwathainani
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We test whether the well-documented post-earnings-announcement drift is a manifestation of an investor underreaction or overreaction to extremely good or bad earnings news. Using the market reaction to extreme earnings surprises (i.e., SUE) in quarter Qt as a reference point, we show that firms reporting a SUE in subsequent quarter Qt 1 that confirms their initial quarter Qt SUE ranking in the same highest or lowest SUE quintiles generate an incremental price run that moves in the same direction as that of the initial SUE. However, the price impact of the confirming SUE signal is weaker than that of its initial SUE. Our findings are robust to the Fama-French three-factor daily regression extended by the momentum factor and a number of other robustness tests. Our finding is not consistent with the prevalent view that investors underreact to earnings news. To the contrary, the results suggest an initial investor overreaction to extreme SUE signals.


Explanations

Explanations
Author: Michael M. Grayson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study addresses the issue of post-earnings-announcement drift. According to the present theory of how capital markets behave, the drift cannot occur if either the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) or the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is valid. The drift is a drift away from the CAPM price, which means that CAPM cannot be how the market mechanically determines prices. The drift has been known since at least 1968, which means that an allegedly efficient market knows of the drift, yet does not take the drift into account in setting prices and thereby drive the drift out of existence. The existence of the drift means that the market cannot be completely efficient even within a time frame of three months.This article uses economic modeling to analyze the drift and the results of a field study to explain why it occurs. This article also explains (1) why the size of the drift varies by size of the company, (2) that the market is not efficient, (3) why stock prices tend to rise after a stock split, and (4) some of the incentives for managements to smooth earnings.


Post-Earnings Announcement Drift

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift
Author: Tomas Tomcany
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2010-11
Genre:
ISBN: 9783843367813

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It is a well documented finding in finance theory that share prices drift in the direction of firms' unexpected earnings changes, a phenomenom known as post-earnings announcement drift, or earnings momentum. In this book, I study the stock prices' reaction to firms' quarterly earnings announcements. The book shows that the timeframe in which the drift occurs is related to the size of a firm and is limited in time after the earnings announcement. I further analyze the effect of the number of analysts covering a firm on the magnitude and persistance of post-earnings announcement drift. I document that recent analyst coverage predicts large drifts after the earnings announcements. I suggest several possible explanations, but the evidence seems most consistent with recent analyst coverage providing information about investor (or analyst) expectations regarding firm's future earnings. This book should be useful to professionals in Financial Economics, especially to those interested in Behavioral Finance in stock markets, but also to equity analysts, traders or investors interested in the stocks' response to earnings news.


Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing

Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing
Author: James Ming Chen
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 293
Release: 2017-10-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319634658

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This book rehabilitates beta as a definition of systemic risk by using particle physics to evaluate discrete components of financial risk. Much of the frustration with beta stems from the failure to disaggregate its discrete components; conventional beta is often treated as if it were "atomic" in the original Greek sense: uncut and indivisible. By analogy to the Standard Model of particle physics theory's three generations of matter and the three-way interaction of quarks, Chen divides beta as the fundamental unit of systemic financial risk into three matching pairs of "baryonic" components. The resulting econophysics of beta explains no fewer than three of the most significant anomalies and puzzles in mathematical finance. Moreover, the model's three-way analysis of systemic risk connects the mechanics of mathematical finance with phenomena usually attributed to behavioral influences on capital markets. Adding consideration of volatility and correlation, and of the distinct cash flow and discount rate components of systematic risk, harmonizes mathematical finance with labor markets, human capital, and macroeconomics.


Investor Trading and the Post Earnings Announcement Drift

Investor Trading and the Post Earnings Announcement Drift
Author: Benjamin C. Ayers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine whether the two distinct post-earnings-announcement drifts associated with seasonal random walk-based and analyst-based earnings surprises are attributable to the trading activities of distinct sets of investors. We predict and find that small (large) traders continue to trade in the direction of seasonal random walk-based (analyst-based) earnings surprises after earnings announcements. We also find that when small (large) traders react more thoroughly to seasonal random walk- (analyst-) based earnings surprises at the earnings announcements, the respective drift attenuates. Further evidence suggests that delayed small trades associated with random walk-based surprises are consistent with small traders' failure to understand time-series properties of earnings, whereas delayed large trades associated with analyst-based surprises are more consistent with a longer price discovery process. We also find that the analyst-based drift has declined in recent years.


The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies

The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies
Author: Leonard Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2011-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118127765

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Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.


Analysis of Post-earnings Announcement Market Reactions

Analysis of Post-earnings Announcement Market Reactions
Author: Nils Carlson
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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The stock market, according to the efficient market hypothesis, is informationally efficient in that prices instantly reflect all available public information. Prior financial literature on the study of the relationship between earnings announcements and their effect on the stock market reveals that there is a significant "drift" of a firm's cumulative abnormal return that occurs in the direction of its earnings surprise. This phenomenon is in contrast to how the efficient market hypothesis would expect the market to react to this new information. The prior studies on this topic were conducted in the 1980s - before the existence of both high-speed access to news via cell phone alerts and the increasing ability to trade quickly on new information via online brokers. This study attempts to test this "post-earnings announcement drift" on the current market to see if this phenomenon is still relevant in today's market and to see if it can be exploited. This study finds that there is still a post-earnings announcement drift that persists for the twenty-one days following earnings announcements. The cumulative abnormal returns continue to drift upwards for "good news" firms and continue to drift downwards for "bad news" firms for twenty-one days and may continue in the same direction after this period. This study also finds that a trading strategy that involves forming long portfolios of firms that beat earnings by the greatest magnitude (most positive earnings surprise) and also have the largest abnormal return on the day of the announcement and forming a short portfolio of firms that miss estimates by the greatest magnitude (most negative earnings surprise) and have the most negative abnormal return on the day of the announcement had an average annualized return of 20.343% over the ten year period starting in 2004 while the S & P 500 had an average annualized return of 9.1% over the same period.


Anchoring, the 52-Week High and Post Earnings Announcement Drift

Anchoring, the 52-Week High and Post Earnings Announcement Drift
Author: Thomas J. George
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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The existence of post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) depends strongly on whether stocks' prices are near (far from) their 52-week highs when positive (negative) earnings surprises arrive. We find that the coincidence of these two effects is what generates significant PEAD. Daily returns around current and future earnings announcements follow a similar pattern -- announcement returns are more muted for extreme positive (negative) surprises, the closer (farther) are prices to the 52-week high. In addition, subsequent announcement returns are greater for these firms, consistent with a correction of previous underreaction. This suggests that an important contributing factor to PEAD is investors anchoring their beliefs about fundamental value on the 52-week high, which restrains price reactions to earnings news.