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Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium

Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium
Author: Miles S. Kimball
Publisher:
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2018
Genre: Financial risk management
ISBN:

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This paper develops an overlapping generations model of optimal rebalancing where agents differ in age and risk tolerance. Equilibrium rebalancing is driven by a leverage effect that influences levered and unlevered agents in opposite directions, an aggregate risk tolerance effect that depends on the distribution of wealth, and an intertemporal hedging effect. After a negative macroeconomic shock, relatively risk tolerant investors sell risky assets while more risk averse investors buy them. Owing to interactions of leverage and changing wealth, however, all agents have higher exposure to aggregate risk after a negative macroeconomic shock and lower exposure after a positive shock.


Beliefs, Portfolio Constraints, Speculation and Asset Pricing

Beliefs, Portfolio Constraints, Speculation and Asset Pricing
Author: Nam Dau
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper studies the interaction of borrowing and short-sale constraints and their ultimate effects on asset pricing properties in a simultaneous presence of the constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous risk aversions and heterogeneous beliefs in the aggregate cash flow growth. The constraints negate the binding of each other, and hence they virtually never bind at once. Instead, there exist clear regions with alternative binding modes of the constraints with different constraints more likely to bind in different states of economy. The borrowing constraint is more active in bad times and the short-sale constraint is so in good times. The constraints bind intermittently--alternately at times--in transitory states of economy where their relative strength is balanced. Qualitatively matching empirically documented patterns of asset prices, I find that the constraints moderate their price effects but amplify their negative volatility effects, thereby can help curb the market volatility. However, a motive for speculation, featured by a speculative premium, arises due to any constraints, and thus can exist in any states of economy, not only in good times.


Strategic Asset Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2002-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019160691X

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Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.


Essays on International Comovements of Financial Markets

Essays on International Comovements of Financial Markets
Author: Yusuke Tateno
Publisher:
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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International portfolio diversification is beneficial only if asset returns are not significantly correlated across countries. Therefore, it is essential for investors who want to make an appropriate portfolio selection to understand the nature of asset return correlations. This thesis consists of three essays on international comovements of financial markets. The first essay analyzes the effects of heterogeneous beliefs and learning on international comovements of equity returns and portfolio rebalancing mechanism. This essay develops a continuous-time general equilibrium model in a two-asset and two-good economy with two representative agents, who differ in perceived rates of output growth and accuracy of beliefs. The equilibrium correlations of equity returns across counties and optimal portfolios are expressed in terms of the differences in beliefs. The main findings are: (1) the differences in perceived rates of output growth generate equity home or foreign bias, resulting in lower crosscountry equity return correlations; and (2) the volatilities of optimal portfolios and capital flows increase with the differences in perceived output growth and with the differences in accuracy of beliefs. The second essay studies the effects of trade costs in goods market on international comovements of equity markets and those on equity home bias. This essay develops a continuous-time general equilibrium model in a two-country, two-asset, and two-good setting where international trade of goods is costly. I solve for the optimal portfolios and the equilibrium correlations of cross-country equity returns and analyze how they change depending on the size of trade costs, the coeiffcient of risk aversion, and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. It is found that the cross-country equity return correlations decrease with the size of trade costs. This result is robust to different sizes of trade costs and asymmetry related to potential growth and consumer preferences. It is also found that the size of the trade costs and other parameter values determine whether trade costs would generate equity home bias or foreign bias. The third essay is devoted to an empirical analysis of the effects of financial integration on international comovements of financial markets. The essay provides a characterization of synchronization among 24 countries over the period 1980-2003. A country-pair panel instrumental variables framework is employed to explain time-varying bilateral correlations among national stock returns, by utilizing the dataset on trade costs in Fitzgerald (2008). It is found that finnancial integration driven by reduction of trade costs leads to a higher degree of synchromization across stock markets.


General Equilibrium Under Convex Portfolio Constraints and Heterogeneous Risk Preferences

General Equilibrium Under Convex Portfolio Constraints and Heterogeneous Risk Preferences
Author: Tyler Abbot
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper characterizes the equilibrium in a continuous time financial market populated by heterogeneous agents who differ in their rate of relative risk aversion and face convex portfolio constraints. The model is studied in an application to margin constraints and found to match real world observations about financial variables and leverage cycles. It is shown how margin constraints increase the market price of risk and decrease the interest rate by forcing more risk averse agents to hold more risky assets, producing a higher equity risk premium. In addition, heterogeneity and margin constraints are shown to produce both pro- and counter-cyclical leverage cycles. Beyond two types, it is shown how constraints can cascade and how leverage can exhibit highly non-linear dynamics. Finally, empirical results are given, documenting a novel stylized fact which is predicted by the model, namely that the leverage cycle is both pro- and counter-cyclical.