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Population Aging and Economic Growth in the United States and Japan

Population Aging and Economic Growth in the United States and Japan
Author: Mikiko M. Oliver
Publisher:
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2015
Genre: Age distribution (Demography)
ISBN: 9781339034645

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Over the last several decades, the age distribution of populations has shifted considerably in the United States (US) and Japan, with more people reaching advanced ages than ever before. This change is creating new challenges for policy-makers in terms of its potential detrimental to economic growth. To devise a comprehensive policy for sustainable economic growth, it is important to examine how population composition affects economic change. The objective of this research is to determine how population aging is related to economic change in the US and Japan by applying econometric methods for the time period of 1975 to 2011. The study analyzes the relationship between age and the economy in the US and Japan by applying regression analysis to single-country data, while the majority of previous studies by applying regression have examined the relationship using cross-country data. The results of this study contribute several findings. The major findings are: 1) in the US, the population ages 35 to 44 has the highest positive association with real GDP per capita among the working-age groups analyzed, while in Japan, the population ages 55 to 59 has the highest positive association with real GDP per capita out of the age groups analyzed; 2) in both the US and Japan, an increase in the population aged 75 and over is associated with an increase in economic growth; and 3) in both the US and Japan, the population age groups of 65 to 69 and 70 to 74 are predictors of the real stock index.


The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan

The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan
Author: Michael D. Hurd
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0226361020

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Due to falling fertility rates, the aging of the baby-boom cohort, and increases in life expectancy, the percentage of the population that is elderly is expected to increase rapidly in the United States and Japan over the next two decades. These fourteen essays show that, despite differences in culture and social and government structure, population aging will have many similar macro and micro effects on the economic status and behavior of the elderly in both countries. The most obvious effects will be on social programs such as public pension systems and the provision for medical needs of the elderly. But, the contributors demonstrate, aging will also affect markets for labor, capital, housing, and health care services. It will affect firms through their participation in the demand side of the labor market and through their provisions for pensions. And aging will influence saving rates, the rate of return on assets, the balance of payments, and, most likely, economic growth. This volume will interest scholars and policy makers concerned with the economics of aging.


The Political Economy of Population Aging

The Political Economy of Population Aging
Author: Kimiko Terai
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2021-09-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811655367

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This book integrates the economics of aging and insight based on political economy and explores generational conflict in the context of governmental spending. This problem is general, as the Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted: lockdowns protect the elderly, but hurt the young. Policies to address global warming impose taxes on the elderly, but would bring benefits largely in the future. This book addresses intergenerational problems by placing its focus on budget allocation, taxation, and regulation. By using Japanese and US data, the authors conduct statistical analysis of whether regions with aging populations may adopt policies that generate benefits during a short period of time instead of policies that could benefit current young generations for an extended period of time. If the policy preferences of voters depend on their age, and if policy adoption by a government reflects public opinion, the change in demographic composition in a region may affect governmental policies. In an aged society, the elderly are pivotal voters. Budgets may be reallocated from policies favored by younger generations, such as education, to policies the elderly prefer, such as welfare programs. This generates an intergenerational externality problem: voters with short life expectancy do not take into consideration long-term benefits. Moreover, the current tax bases may be replaced by other tax bases that do not harm the elderly. The results reported in the book largely support these hypotheses. Evidence also shows that the gender and racial composition and institutional factors, including the extent of fiscal decentralization, are important in anticipating effects of population aging in other countries.


Economics of Population Aging

Economics of Population Aging
Author: James H. Schulz
Publisher: Praeger
Total Pages: 390
Release: 1991
Genre: Law
ISBN:

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This book examines claims that aging populations will create serious economic problems for various nations. It examines the question in large part through the eyes of researchers and legislators in three target countries: Australia, Japan, and the United States. These countries were chosen because of similar states of economic development and because all were experiencing a rapid aging of their populations. A comprehensive overview is provided of the economic issues related to aging populations. Several aspects are explored in more depth. To date, it is the most complete and thorough study of economic issues associated with population aging. After a brief review of the phenomenon of demographic aging, the authors give a summary of the major economic programs offered to the aged. Extensive research is used to evaluate the concept of dependency ratios and to predict the impact on younger and older persons of future economic and demographic growth. This discussion then provides the basis for a review of evolving retirement policies in the three countries. Special attention is given to the way pension plans have been designed, especially early and mandatory retirement policies. An assessment of the adequacy of retirement income follows. The final three chapters are devoted to policy options for the future, given trends in demographic aging. Social scientists and economists will be most interested in this study.


Trends and Factors in Japan's Long-Term Care Insurance System

Trends and Factors in Japan's Long-Term Care Insurance System
Author: Pedro Olivares-Tirado
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2013-11-19
Genre: Family & Relationships
ISBN: 9400778759

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Ageing population poses a set of complex policy and dilemmas for social security systems, intensifying the concerns about rising expenditures in health care and long-term care for elderly. In this context, ageing societies has many valuable lessons to learn by studying Japan's experience dealing with its hyper-aged society and particularly from its strategies to ensure the financial sustainability of the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system. Based on an exhaustive literature review, and the results from six original researches on long-term care expenditures in Japan (LTCE) conducted during a doctoral program, the book provides a comprehensive view in analyzing trends and factors associated with increasing expenditures in the Long-Term Care Insurance system in Japan. The book address relevant topics such as; the main socio-demographic changes experienced by the Japanese society during the last three decades, predictors of the LTCE, measuring efficiency in nursing homes, the impact of the LTCI 2005-reform to contain expenditures, cost-effectiveness of the in-home and community based services and institutional LTCE in the last year of life. The book end with a discussion on futures challenges and strategies oriented to contribute with the sustainability of LTCI system in Japan.


Population Aging and the Generational Economy

Population Aging and the Generational Economy
Author: Ronald Demos Lee
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 617
Release: 2011-01-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0857930583

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'While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.' – H.I. Liebling, Choice 'Ron Lee and Andrew Mason's Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.' – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US 'The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson's framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.' – Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US 'Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!' – David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.' – Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe. The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike. This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.


Aging in the United States and Japan

Aging in the United States and Japan
Author: Yukio Noguchi
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2008-04-15
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0226590216

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Japanese and American economists assess the present economic status of the elderly in the United States and Japan, and consider the impact of an aging population on the economies of the two countries. With essays on labor force participation and retirement, housing equity and the economic status of the elderly, budget implications of an aging population, and financing social security and health care in the 1990s, this volume covers a broad spectrum of issues related to the economics of aging. Among the book's findings are that workers are retiring at an increasingly earlier age in both countries and that, as the populations age, baby boomers in the United States will face diminishing financial resources as the ratio of retirees to workers sharply increases. The result of a joint venture between the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Japan Center for Economic Research, this book complements Housing Markets in the United States and Japan (1994) by integrating research on housing markets with economic issues of the aged in the United States and Japan.


Aging in Asia

Aging in Asia
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 486
Release: 2012-07-31
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309254094

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The population of Asia is growing both larger and older. Demographically the most important continent on the world, Asia's population, currently estimated to be 4.2 billion, is expected to increase to about 5.9 billion by 2050. Rapid declines in fertility, together with rising life expectancy, are altering the age structure of the population so that in 2050, for the first time in history, there will be roughly as many people in Asia over the age of 65 as under the age of 15. It is against this backdrop that the Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the U.S. National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC), through the Committee on Population, to undertake a project on advancing behavioral and social research on aging in Asia. Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives is a peer-reviewed collection of papers from China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Thailand that were presented at two conferences organized in conjunction with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, and Science Council of Japan; the first conference was hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, and the second conference was hosted by the Indian National Science Academy in New Delhi. The papers in the volume highlight the contributions from new and emerging data initiatives in the region and cover subject areas such as economic growth, labor markets, and consumption; family roles and responsibilities; and labor markets and consumption.


Aging and the Macroeconomy

Aging and the Macroeconomy
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2013-01-10
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309261961

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The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.


Low Fertility and Population Aging in Japan and Eastern Asia

Low Fertility and Population Aging in Japan and Eastern Asia
Author: Toru Suzuki
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 95
Release: 2014-02-04
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 4431547800

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This book provides a unique comparative view of the extremely low fertility and drastic population aging in Eastern Asian countries. After discussing demographic and political developments of Japan in detail as a reference case, accelerated changes in Korea, Taiwan and China are interpreted with a comparative cultural view. In addition to the well-known cultural divide between countries with strong and weak family ties, this book proposes another divide between offspring of the feudal family and that of the Confucian family. Included is a discussion of how the discrepancy between the compressed change in the socioeconomic system and the slow change in the family system has resulted in extremely low fertility in Eastern Asia. A comparison of policy development reveals that the sense of overpopulation has caused difficulty in launching pro-natal policy interventions in Eastern Asia, especially in China. Impacts of fertility decline on population aging, total dependency ratio and the timing of population decline in Eastern Asia are analyzed with a stylized model. The remaining Confucian family pattern is especially important in understanding and predicting political development to cope with accelerated population aging. This book is a valuable resource for researchers who are interested in the latest and most surprising demographic phenomena in the region.