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Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics
Author: Seungho Jung
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2021-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1557759677

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We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.


Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences

Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in six Asian-Pacific selected countries of Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia. The monthly data on stock price indices, foreign exchange rates, consumer price index and industrial production index that spans from January 1993 to December 2002 are used. In particular, we focus our analysis on the long run equilibrium and short run multivariate causality between these variables. The results indicate the existing of a long run equilibrium relationship between and among variables in only four countries, i.e., Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Australia. As for short run relationship, all countries except for Hong Kong and Thailand show some interactions. The Hong Kong shows relationship only between exchange rate and stock price while the Thailand reports significant interaction only between output and stock prices. An accurate estimation of the relationship between the economic variables and stock market behaviour enables the investors - both local and foreign to make effective investment decisions. At the same time, for the policy makers, a precise prediction of this type of relationship may help government agencies in designing policies to encourage more capital inflows into the respective countries' capital market.


Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics
Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 445
Release: 2020-08-05
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030497283

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This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.


Governing the Market

Governing the Market
Author: Robert Wade
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780691117294

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"George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg lead a talented cast in this harrowing special-effects adventure intercutting the plight of seafarers struggling to reach safe harbor with the heroics of air/sea rescue crews"--Container.


ICoSMI 2020

ICoSMI 2020
Author: Eko Ruddy Cahyadi
Publisher: European Alliance for Innovation
Total Pages: 1335
Release:
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1631902997

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This book is the proceeding of the International Conference on Sustainable Management and Innovation (ICoSMI 2020) that was successfully held on 14-16 September 2020 using an online platform. The conference was mainly organized by the Department of Management IPB University in collaboration with Leibniz University of Hannover, Universiti Putera Malaysia, Kasetsart University, Tun Hussein Onn University of Malaysia, Tamil Nadu Teachers Education University, Deakin University, University of Adelaide, Forum Manajemen Indonesia, FE Pakuan University, FE Gajah Mada University FEB University of North Sumatra and FEB Andalas University, SBM Bandung Institute of Technology, FEB Lampung University, Perbanas Institute Jakarta, FE Bina Nusantara University, and SBE Prasetiya Mulya University. This conference has brought academic researchers, business practitioners as well as graduate students together to exchange their experiences and research results about most aspects of innovation and sustainability, and discuss the practical challenges encountered and the solutions adopted. About 402 delegates across the world including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Spain, China, and India have attended and presented their research works in the conference. The proceeding consists of 80 high-quality papers that were selected from more than 250 submitted papers. The papers are classified into 12 themes, namely Finance for Sustainability, Industry 4.0 and Future Business Sustainability, Policy and Strategy for Sustainable Innovation and Supply Chain, Smart Agriculture Management for Environmental Sustainability, and Sustainable Human Resources. Finally, we would like to express the greatest thanks to all colleagues in the steering and organizing committee for their cooperation in administering and arranging the conference as well as reviewers for their academic works and commitment to reviewing papers.