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Ethnic Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War

Ethnic Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War
Author: Nicholas Sambanis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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Partition theorists argue that when violent ethnic conflict is intense, civil politics cannot be restored unless ethnic groups are demographically separated into defensible enclaves. The empirical evidence suggests otherwise.Some theorists of ethnic conflict argue that the physical separation of warring ethnic groups may be the only possible solution to civil war. Without territorial partition and (if needed) forced population movements, they argue, ethnic war cannot end and genocide is likely.Other scholars have counterargued that partition only replaces internal war with international war, creates undemocratic successor states, and generates tremendous human suffering.So far this debate has been informed by few important case studies.Sambanis uses a new set of data on civil wars to identify the main determinants of ethnic partitions and to estimate their impact on the probability of wars recurrence, on low-grade ethnic violence, and on the political institutions of successor states.Sambanis's analysis is the first large-sample quantitative analysis of the subject, testing the propositions of partition theory and weighing heavily on the side of its critics.He shows that almost all the assertions of partition theorists fail to pass rigorous empirical tests.He finds that, on average, partition does not significantly reduce the probability of new violence. A better strategy might be to combine ethnic groups, but most important is to establish credible and equitable systems of governance.It is also important not to load the strategy with subjective premises about the necessity of ethnically pure states and about the futility of interethnic cooperation.This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the economics of civil wars. The author may be contacted at [email protected].


Partition and Peace in Civil Wars

Partition and Peace in Civil Wars
Author: Carter R. Johnson
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 155
Release: 2021-08-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1000414442

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This book examines whether partition is an effective means to resolve ethnic and sectarian civil wars. It argues that partition is unlikely to end ongoing ethnosectarian civil wars, but it can increase the likelihood of preventing civil war recurrence, as long as the partition separates civilians and militaries. The book presents in-depth case studies of Georgia–Abkhazia and Moldova–Transnistria, in addition to cross-national comparisons of all ethnosectarian civil wars between 1945 and 2004. This analysis demonstrates when partitioning a country can help transform an identity-based civil war into a lasting peace. Highlighting practical and moral challenges of separating ethnosectarian groups, the book contends that complete partitions cannot be easily implemented by the international community, and this limits their applicability. It also demonstrates that ethnosectarian civil wars are driven less by inter-group antagonisms and more by state breakdown, meaning displaced minorities can reintegrate peacefully after partition as long as a minimal level of state-building has been completed. The book ends by examining whether partition would be useful for five contemporary conflicts: Iraq, Ukraine–Donbass, Afghanistan, Sudan–South Sudan, and Serbia–Kosovo. This book will be of much interest to students of civil wars, ethnic conflict, peace and conflict studies, and international relations.


Keeping the Peace

Keeping the Peace
Author: Daniel Byman
Publisher: JHU Press
Total Pages: 298
Release: 2002-03-08
Genre: History
ISBN: 9780801868047

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What strategies can a government use to end violent ethnic conflicts in the long term? Under what conditions do these strategies work best? Daniel Byman examines how government policies can affect the recurrence of violent ethnic conflict.


This Land is Our Land

This Land is Our Land
Author: Sabala Siva Baskar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN: 9781124597379

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This paper seeks to answer the question: Under what geographic, demographic, and military conditions is territorial partition more likely to prevent war recurrence between ethnic groups? To answer this question I conducted a qualitative case study of four post-World War II partitions: India/Pakistan (1947), Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh (1994), Cyprus/Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (1974), and Moldova/Transnistria (1992). My general finding was that territorial partition is more likely to prevent war recurrence between ethnic groups if it creates a "complete" demographic and territorial separation, defensible borders, and a balance of material power between successor states. However, the cases of Cyprus/TRNC and Moldova/Transnistria suggest that the absence of one factor does not have to spell disaster if the other factors can compensate. In short, since partition theory is based on the concept of the ethnic security dilemma, it follows that partitions should be implemented in a way that actually addresses each group's fear of attack. In this paper I highlight three conditions that can help mitigate the uncertainty that drives the security dilemma. I conclude with a set of recommendations aimed at policy makers who are either considering territorial partition as a conflict resolution strategy, or trying to maintain peace between two newly partitioned territories.


Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention

Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention
Author: Barbara F. Walter
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 350
Release: 1999
Genre: History
ISBN: 9780231116275

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Since the end of the Cold War, a series of costly civil wars, many of them ethnic conflicts, have dominated the international security agenda. This volume offers a detailed examination of four recent interventions by the international community.


Partitions

Partitions
Author: Arie Dubnov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 377
Release: 2019
Genre: Decolonization
ISBN: 9781503607675

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Partition--the physical division of territory along ethno-religious lines into separate nation-states--is often presented as a successful political "solution" to ethnic conflict. In the twentieth century, at least three new political entities--the Irish Free State, the Dominions (later Republics) of India and Pakistan, and the State of Israel--emerged as results of partition. This volume offers the first collective history of the concept of partition, tracing its emergence in the aftermath of the First World War and locating its genealogy in the politics of twentieth-century empire and decolonization. Making use of the transnational framework of the British Empire, which presided over the three major partitions of the twentieth century, contributors draw out concrete connections among the cases of Ireland, Pakistan, and Israel--the mutual influences, shared personnel, economic justifications, and material interests that propelled the idea of partition forward and resulted in the violent creation of new post-colonial political spaces. In so doing, the volume seeks to move beyond the nationalist frameworks that served in the first instance to promote partition as a natural phenomenon.


Modern Hatreds

Modern Hatreds
Author: Stuart J. Kaufman
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 275
Release: 2015-05-26
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1501702009

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Ethnic conflict has been the driving force of wars all over the world, yet it remains an enigma. What is it about ethnicity that breaks countries apart and drives people to acts of savage violence against their lifelong neighbors? Stuart Kaufman rejects the notion of permanent "ancient hatreds" as the answer. Dissatisfied as well with a purely rationalist explanation, he finds the roots of ethnic violence in myths and symbols, the stories ethnic groups tell about who they are. Ethnic wars, Kaufman argues, result from the politics of these myths and symbols—appeals to flags and faded glories that aim to stir emotions rather than to address interests. Popular hostility based on these myths impels groups to follow extremist leaders invoking such emotion-laden ethnic symbols. If ethnic domination becomes their goal, ethnic war is the likely result. Kaufman examines contemporary ethnic wars in the Caucasus and southeastern Europe. Drawing on information from a variety of sources, including visits to the regions and dozens of personal interviews, he demonstrates that diplomacy and economic incentives are not enough to prevent or end ethnic wars. The key to real conflict resolution is peacebuilding—the often-overlooked effort by nongovernmental organizations to change hostile attitudes at both the elite and the grassroots levels.


Partition and Peace in Civil Wars

Partition and Peace in Civil Wars
Author: Carter R. Johnson
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 139
Release: 2021-08-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1000414493

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This book examines whether partition is an effective means to resolve ethnic and sectarian civil wars. It argues that partition is unlikely to end ongoing ethnosectarian civil wars, but it can increase the likelihood of preventing civil war recurrence, as long as the partition separates civilians and militaries. The book presents in-depth case studies of Georgia–Abkhazia and Moldova–Transnistria, in addition to cross-national comparisons of all ethnosectarian civil wars between 1945 and 2004. This analysis demonstrates when partitioning a country can help transform an identity-based civil war into a lasting peace. Highlighting practical and moral challenges of separating ethnosectarian groups, the book contends that complete partitions cannot be easily implemented by the international community, and this limits their applicability. It also demonstrates that ethnosectarian civil wars are driven less by inter-group antagonisms and more by state breakdown, meaning displaced minorities can reintegrate peacefully after partition as long as a minimal level of state-building has been completed. The book ends by examining whether partition would be useful for five contemporary conflicts: Iraq, Ukraine–Donbass, Afghanistan, Sudan–South Sudan, and Serbia–Kosovo. This book will be of much interest to students of civil wars, ethnic conflict, peace and conflict studies, and international relations.


Targeting Civilians in War

Targeting Civilians in War
Author: Alexander B. Downes
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 329
Release: 2011-05-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0801457297

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Accidental harm to civilians in warfare often becomes an occasion for public outrage, from citizens of both the victimized and the victimizing nation. In this vitally important book on a topic of acute concern for anyone interested in military strategy, international security, or human rights, Alexander B. Downes reminds readers that democratic and authoritarian governments alike will sometimes deliberately kill large numbers of civilians as a matter of military strategy. What leads governments to make such a choice? Downes examines several historical cases: British counterinsurgency tactics during the Boer War, the starvation blockade used by the Allies against Germany in World War I, Axis and Allied bombing campaigns in World War II, and ethnic cleansing in the Palestine War. He concludes that governments decide to target civilian populations for two main reasons—desperation to reduce their own military casualties or avert defeat, or a desire to seize and annex enemy territory. When a state's military fortunes take a turn for the worse, he finds, civilians are more likely to be declared legitimate targets to coerce the enemy state to give up. When territorial conquest and annexation are the aims of warfare, the population of the disputed land is viewed as a threat and the aggressor state may target those civilians to remove them. Democracies historically have proven especially likely to target civilians in desperate circumstances. In Targeting Civilians in War, Downes explores several major recent conflicts, including the 1991 Persian Gulf War and the American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Civilian casualties occurred in each campaign, but they were not the aim of military action. In these cases, Downes maintains, the achievement of quick and decisive victories against overmatched foes allowed democracies to win without abandoning their normative beliefs by intentionally targeting civilians. Whether such "restraint" can be guaranteed in future conflicts against more powerful adversaries is, however, uncertain. During times of war, democratic societies suffer tension between norms of humane conduct and pressures to win at the lowest possible costs. The painful lesson of Targeting Civilians in War is that when these two concerns clash, the latter usually prevails.