Panel Nowcasting For Countries Whose Quarterly Gdps Are Unavailable PDF Download
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Author | : Omer Faruk Akbal |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 2023-08-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Author | : Mr.Philip Liu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2011-04-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455254290 |
Download Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Author | : Laurent Ferrara |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 298 |
Release | : 2018-06-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319790757 |
Download International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author | : United Nations |
Publisher | : United Nations |
Total Pages | : 134 |
Release | : 2019-12-18 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9210045173 |
Download Guidelines on Producing Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
Author | : Edouard Challe |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 361 |
Release | : 2023-09-19 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0262549298 |
Download Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Author | : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 114 |
Release | : 1996 |
Genre | : Agricultural estimating and reporting |
ISBN | : 9789264148086 |
Download The Agricultural Outlook Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The Agricultural Outlook provides a five-year assessment of trends and prospects in the major agricultural commodity markets
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2020-07-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513550608 |
Download Zimbabwe Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
As part of a five-year project of the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 Government Finance Statistics (GFS) Module on improving GFS and public-sector debt statistics in selected African countries, a mission was conducted in Harare, Zimbabwe during April 15–26, 2019. This mission was a follow up on a 2018 GFS technical assistance (TA) mission under the EDDI 2. The mission’s objective was to review progress made and assisting with outstanding statistical issues that are important for sound policymaking in Zimbabwe. Some of the key outstanding issues raised by the IMF African Department prior to the mission were, the classification of government subsidies to state owned enterprises (SOEs); the identification of extrabudgetary units (EBUs) and classification of their operations; and the correct classification of other government transactions in line with a Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 2014 framework.
Author | : Claudia Foroni |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9783865587817 |
Download U-MIDAS Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Maximo Camacho |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 74 |
Release | : 2013-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781601987426 |
Download Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Author | : Mr.Futoshi Narita |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2018-12-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484390172 |
Download In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends’ data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates. The correlation with real GDP is stronger than that of nighttime lights, whereas the opposite is found for emerging market economies. The search frequencies also improve out-of-sample forecasting performance albeit slightly, demonstrating their potential to facilitate timely assessments of economic conditions in low-income developing countries.