On the optimal use of forecasts in economic policy decisions
Author | : Leif Johansen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Leif Johansen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Tor Hersoug |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1975 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Gregor Betz |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 287 |
Release | : 2007-10-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3835090534 |
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Author | : Kneale T. Marshall |
Publisher | : McGraw-Hill Science, Engineering & Mathematics |
Total Pages | : 440 |
Release | : 1995 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This book discusses how to design the most important features of realistic decision problems into analytical models that reveal their structure and give insight. Emphasis is on model formulation using graphical techniques with influence diagrams and decision trees. Decision Making and Forecasting shows how forecasting must be integrated with decision making in a coherent manner and makes frequent use of the economic value of forecasts.
Author | : Aaart R. Heesterman |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 165 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9401031398 |
This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in such a thing as the 'optimal' plan. The possible result of bad planning or no planning at all, for instance massive unemployment, sudden financial crises, unused capital equipment, or the production of unsalable goods is agreed to be undesirable. Programming methods may of course be needed, if only for having a systematic algorithm to find a solution that avoids this kind of 'obvious' non-optimality. However, the main emphasis is on forecasting models.
Author | : Ralf Brüggemann |
Publisher | : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG |
Total Pages | : 176 |
Release | : 2016-11-21 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3110510847 |
Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.
Author | : Lawrence Robert Klein |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 88 |
Release | : 1981 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Philip Hans Franses |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 32 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Author | : John E. Silvia |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 400 |
Release | : 2014-03-31 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1118497090 |
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.