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On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?
Author: Daniel Gurara
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2020-02-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513529986

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While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association between cost inflation and public investment in a large sample of road construction projects in developing countries. Consistent with the presence of absorptive capacity constraints, our results show a non-linear U-shaped relationship between public investment and project costs. Unit costs increase once public investment is close to 10% of GDP. This threshold is lower (about 7% of GDP) in countries with low investment efficiency and, in general, the effect of investment scaling up on costs is especially strong during investment booms.


Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence

Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence
Author: William Gbohoui
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616356200

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This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.


Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure

Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure
Author: Manal Fouad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2021-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513576569

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Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.


From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure

From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2016-02-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475591837

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This paper investigates the emerging global landscape for public-private co-investments in infrastructure. The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other so-called “infrastructure investment platforms” are an attempt to tap into the pool of both public and private long-term savings in order to channel the latter into much needed infrastructure projects. This paper puts these new initiatives into perspective by critically reviewing the literature and experience with public private partnerships in infrastructure. It concludes by identifying the main challenges policy makers and other actors will need to confront going forward and to turn infrastructure into an asset class of its own.


Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects

Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 703
Release: 2024-03-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464820015

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A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date. With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened, the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is under way, with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies. The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects. The book is essential reading for policy makers, economists, and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy. Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s. In addition to tackling traditional trade-offs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply side, policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges, from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution, all in the context of lower growth rates, waning productivity growth, and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty. In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects, the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels, identifying and unpacking salient twenty-first-century policy challenges, and providing thoughtful and evidence-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Importantly, the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and, hence, global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results. Alas, we seem to be going in the opposite direction; this book offers a road map to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community. Michael G. Plummer Director, SAIS Europe and ENI Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University


The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt

The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt
Author: Ferrarini, Benno
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 456
Release: 2022-02-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1800883722

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This is an open access title available under the terms of a [CC BY 3.0 IGO] License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. Asia has shown the world what success in economic development looks like. From the amazing transformations of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the other ‘tigers’ in the early 70s, to the more recent takeoffs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and the leading economies in Southeast Asia, the region has prospered at a startling pace. Technologies were adopted, productivity raised, and export markets conquered. Billions were lifted out of poverty. What was once a backwater is now a global engine of growth.


The Growth Report

The Growth Report
Author: Commission on Growth and Development
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 198
Release: 2008-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821374923

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The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.


Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States
Author: Ralph Chami
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 689
Release: 2021-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198853092

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Setting macroeconomic policy is especially difficult in fragile states. Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States addresses the many issues involved and considers ways to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic management in the face of these constraints.


Reforming Infrastructure

Reforming Infrastructure
Author: Ioannis Nicolaos Kessides
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, railways, and water supply, are often vertically and horizontally integrated state monopolies. This results in weak services, especially in developing and transition economies, and for poor people. Common problems include low productivity, high costs, bad quality, insufficient revenue, and investment shortfalls. Many countries over the past two decades have restructured, privatized and regulated their infrastructure. This report identifies the challenges involved in this massive policy redirection. It also assesses the outcomes of these changes, as well as their distributional consequences for poor households and other disadvantaged groups. It recommends directions for future reforms and research to improve infrastructure performance, identifying pricing policies that strike a balance between economic efficiency and social equity, suggesting rules governing access to bottleneck infrastructure facilities, and proposing ways to increase poor people's access to these crucial services.


Rainfed Lowland Rice

Rainfed Lowland Rice
Author: Jagdish Kumar Ladha
Publisher: IRRI
Total Pages: 312
Release: 1998
Genre: Rainfed lowland rice
ISBN: 9712201171

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Introduction and background; Characterization of environments; Nutrient balances; Managing organic matter; Nutrient x water interactions; Soil physical constraints and nutrient availability; Germplasm for nutrient efficiency.