Oil Price Volatility Forecast With Mixture Memory Garch PDF Download
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Author | : Tony Klein |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2018 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Oil Price Volatility Forecast with Mixture Memory GARCH. Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
First Version: 03/11/2015This Version: 04/01/2016We expand the literature of volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasting of oil price returns by comparing the recently proposed Mixture Memory GARCH (MMGARCH) model to other discrete volatility models (GARCH, FIGARCH, and HYGARCH). We incorporate an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation of the MMGARCH and find regimes that differ in volatility level as well as shock persistence. Furthermore, we observe dissimilar memory structure in variance of WTI and Brent crude oil prices which is confirmed by altering the mixture components. In regard of variance forecasting and Value-at-Risk prediction, we show that MMGARCH outperforms the aforementioned models due to its dynamic approach in varying the volatility level and memory of the process. We find MMGARCH superior for application in risk management as a result of its flexibility in adjusting to variance shifts and shocks.
Author | : May Al- Issa |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2023-09-27 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781916761629 |
Download Forecasting Volatility of Oil Prices & Their Effect on the Economy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
With the importance of crude oil and its effect on the macro and micro economy alike and with the fluctuations of oil prices mainly due to geopolitical reasons -speculators taking this advantage in raising the prices in 2008; forecasting crude oil volatility becomes vital. This project addresses three main areas: modelling volatility, forecasting and calculating options premiums and finally examining the effect of oil prices on the economy. Five year daily prices of OPEC, being the reference to oil prices, Brent being one of the main oil markets, BP.plc as one of the giant oil companies, and S&P500 being the important market index are obtained from different approved resources. Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity series proved, as examined by vast number of studies in the literature reviewed; to be better in forecasting volatility in time series. GARCH and EGARCH are estimated under normality using random walk with drift for a better fit. Upon choosing the optimal models according to the Akaike and Schwartz Information Criteria; EGARCH(1,2) is of better fit to volatility for OPEC containing recent shocks to the prices, yet GARCH(1,2) and GARCH(5,4) provided almost similar results. EGARCH(1,1) proves to be yet another good model for both modelling and forecasting volatility of Brent crude returns by covering the asymmetry and the leverage effects. Options premiums calculated of 31-day forecast period using Black-Scholes model show different outcome to that obtained from Bloomberg implying the attraction of more investors to buy more profitable options since higher risk leads to higher profits. By performing the Johansen cointegration method, it is evident that oil price fluctuations have longer term relationship between OPEC and BP than between OPEC and S&P500 yet all three are in equilibrium portraying for more downturn in the economy.
Author | : Emin Musayev |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 80 |
Release | : 2016-12-13 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9783330008939 |
Download Modelling and Forecasting Crude Oil Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Shahriar Akter |
Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
Total Pages | : 335 |
Release | : 2023-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1800888554 |
Download Handbook of Big Data Research Methods Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This state-of-the-art Handbook provides an overview of the role of big data analytics in various areas of business and commerce, including accounting, finance, marketing, human resources, operations management, fashion retailing, information systems, and social media. It provides innovative ways of overcoming the challenges of big data research and proposes new directions for further research using descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.
Author | : Tony Klein |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 508 |
Release | : 2022-06-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1800611927 |
Download Modern Finance And Risk Management: Festschrift In Honour Of Hermann Locarek-junge Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Modern Finance and Risk Management is dedicated to our colleague, academic mentor, and adviser Professor Hermann Locarek-Junge. During his academic career, Hermann Locarek-Junge published several important contributions to the field of risk management and portfolio management and served as the chairman and board member of the German Finance Association (DGF) and the Data Science Society (Gesellschaft für Klassifikation).A short foreword by the mentors of Hermann Locarek-Junge and an introduction by the editors mark the beginning of the Festschrift. The first section on Modern Finance includes chapters on asset management, entrepreneurship, and behavioural finance. The second section on Modern Risk Management contains seven contributions covering considerations of risk measurement, risk management, and regulation. Finally, the third section includes topics on commodities and energy finance.This Festschrift comprises 20 original contributions of notable scholars in finance who have worked with Hermann Locarek-Junge over the last four decades. Due to numerous connections to practice and applications, Modern Finance and Risk Management is relevant and attractive not only to academics and researchers but also to practitioners in industry and banking.
Author | : Duc Khuong Nguyen |
Publisher | : MDPI |
Total Pages | : 250 |
Release | : 2020-12-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3039364855 |
Download Trends in Emerging Markets Finance, Institutions and Money Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since the waves of financial liberalization in the 1980s, emerging market economies have been accessible to foreign investors. Altogether, they contributed up to 43.8% of the global GDP in 2018, and many of them, such as China, India, Bangladesh, Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam from 2010 to 2019, are among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Given the high economic growth, the assets issued by companies in emerging markets are viewed as a new set of investment opportunities for global investors and fund managers who seek to improve the risk-adjusted performance of their portfolios. In addition to their risky profile due to the lack of transparency as well as stable and matured institutions, their recent development path faces a number of challenges arising not only from the slow pace of economic reforms but also from their increased integration with the world. Geopolitical risks, the US–China trade wars, and rising policy uncertainty around the world are expected to reduce their growth potential and performance. This Special Issue dedicates special attention to the current dynamics of emerging financial markets, as well as their perspectives of development as a key driver for sustainable firms and economies. Accordingly, the focus is particularly placed on market integration and interdependence, valuations and risk management practices, and the financing means for inclusive growth.
Author | : Xiangyun Gao |
Publisher | : Frontiers Media SA |
Total Pages | : 221 |
Release | : 2024-04-09 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 2832547532 |
Download Critical Energy Minerals: A Material Enabler for Carbon Neutrality Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In line with the Paris Agreement, the global community has committed to holding the rise in global temperatures below 1.5 °C pre-industrial levels. At COP26, held recently in Glasgow, participating parties are expected to strengthen their commitment to ambitious 2030 emissions reduction targets to achieve net-zero emissions by the middle of the 21st century. Achieving these ambitious climate goals requires all countries to phase out coal consumption, speed up electrification of transport technologies and mobilize significant investment in renewable energy technologies.
Author | : Philip Hans Franses |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 299 |
Release | : 2000-07-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0521770416 |
Download Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This 2000 volume reviews non-linear time series models, and their applications to financial markets.
Author | : Riccardo Rebonato |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 864 |
Release | : 2005-07-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0470091401 |
Download Volatility and Correlation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author | : James D. Hamilton |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 267 |
Release | : 2013-06-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3642511821 |
Download Advances in Markov-Switching Models Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.