Northeast Asias Turbulent Triangle PDF Download

Northeast Asia, as every other region of the world, has been profoundly affected by the end of the Cold War and the implosion and dissolution of the Soviet Union. While the region's politics were never entirely subsumed by the bipolar global structure, the existence of the Soviet Union as putative enemy of China, Japan, and the United States was the single most important factor determining regional alignments. Indeed, the two most critical disputes in the region, the North-South confrontation on the Korean peninsula and the status of Taiwan, are direct legacies of the Cold War. With a weak and nonthreatening Russia succeeding the Soviet Union, other factors--trade, investment, regional security issues, and historical memories predating the Cold War-- now also influence Northeast Asian developments.Japan and China are clearly the major regional actors in Northeast Asia--indeed, all of East Asia--and can demand to be considered on every significant regional decision. This puts them in a category for which only one other nation, the United States, can qualify. Yet North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan are not small, insignificant powers which have no ability to influence regional events. On the contrary, each of them have capabilities that permit them to veto certain outcomes, and mobilize support to achieve other outcomes. Moreover, they are directly involved in the disputes more likely than any others to drag the regional major powers into conflict. These governments are relatively ineffective with respect to other issues, however. China, Japan, and the United States have the capacity to be engaged in and influence virtually all regional activities. Russia, the only extra-regional nation other than the United States that might play an important role in regional politics, also exerts influence on some, but relatively few and relatively marginal, issues. Russia's share in the region's economic activity is minimal, and it does not have the capable regional military force which its predecessor, the Soviet Union, could deploy in earlier years. The potential for Moscow to assume a greater role in the future--most non-Russians believe in a distant future--is the main source of what influence it can mobilize to affect current regional security affairs.