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Author | : Nate Silver |
Publisher | : Penguin |
Total Pages | : 577 |
Release | : 2015-02-03 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0143125087 |
Download The Signal and the Noise Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Author | : Nancy Berry |
Publisher | : Creative Teaching Press |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 1998-06 |
Genre | : Bulletin boards |
ISBN | : 9781574713718 |
Download Giant Bk of Bulletin Boards Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Transform your classroom into a dazzling learning environment with this great "one-stop" resource. Over 150 easy-to-make bulletin boards and accompanying reproducible patterns help you create an award-winning classroom year after year. Great ideas for back-to-school displays, seasonal fun, displaying student work, curriculum displays, door decorations, and much more. 224 pages.
Author | : Massachusetts. Dept. of Labor and Industries. Division of Statistics |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1110 |
Release | : 1914 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Labor Bulletin of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Zahra Marwan |
Publisher | : Bloomsbury Publishing USA |
Total Pages | : 47 |
Release | : 2022-03-29 |
Genre | : Juvenile Nonfiction |
ISBN | : 1547607831 |
Download Where Butterflies Fill the Sky Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A New York Times/New York Public Library Best Illustrated Children's Book One of NPR's Best Books of 2022 Chicago Public Library's Best of the Best Informational Books for Younger Readers of 2022 A School Library Journal Best Book of 2022 A Bulletin of the Center for Children's Books 2022 Blue Ribbon Book The Society of Illustrators' Dilys Evans Founders Award Winner 2022 Zahra Marwan is a recipient of the United Nations Minority Artist Award on Statelessness An evocative picture book debut that tells the true story of the author's immigration from Kuwait to the United States. Zahra lives in a beautiful place where the desert reaches all the way to the sea and one hundred butterflies always fill the sky. When Baba and Mama tell her that their family is no longer welcome here and they must leave, Zahra wonders if she will ever feel at home again--and what about the people she will leave behind? But when she and her family arrive in a new desert, she's surprised to find magic all around her. Home might not be as far away as she thought it would be. With spare, moving text and vivid artwork, Zahra Marwan tells the true story of her and her family's immigration from Kuwait, where they were considered stateless, to New Mexico, where together they made a new home. "Utterly original and enjoyable from start to finish." -Betsy Bird, librarian, book critic, and author of Long Road to the Circus
Author | : Texas Agricultural Experiment Station |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 724 |
Release | : 1914 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Bulletins Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 284 |
Release | : 1922 |
Genre | : Labor |
ISBN | : |
Download Bulletin of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : New South Wales. Department of Industrial Relations and Technology |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1226 |
Release | : 1923 |
Genre | : Labor |
ISBN | : |
Download The New South Wales Industrial Gazette Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : National Electric Light Association |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 1082 |
Release | : 1916 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download N.E.L.A. Bulletin ... Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 644 |
Release | : 1919 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Bulletins, Binders Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Commerce Clearing House |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 308 |
Release | : 1921 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Federal Tax Bulletins Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle