Motivated Metamodels Synthesis Of Cause Effect Reasoning And Statistical Metamodeling PDF Download

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Motivated Metamodels

Motivated Metamodels
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society
Total Pages: 94
Release: 2003
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9780833033192

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A metamodel approximates the behavior of a more complex model. A common and superficially attractive way to develop a metamodel is to generate large-model data and use off-the-shelf statistical methods without attempting to understand the model's internal workings. This report describes research illuminating why it can be important to improve the quality of metamodels by using even modest phenomenological knowledge to help structure them. The work helps to understand multiresolution, multiperspective modeling


Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling

Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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Simple, low-resolution models are needed for high-level reasoning and communication, decision support, exploratory analysis, and rapidly adaptive calculations. Analytical organizations often have large and complex object models, which are regarded as reasonably valid. However, they do not have simpler models and cannot readily develop them by rigorously studying and simplifying the object model. Perhaps the object model is hopelessly opaque, the organization no longer has the expertise to delve into the model's innards, or there simply is not enough time to do so. One recourse in such instances is statistical metamodeling, which is often referred to as developing a response surface. The idea is to emulate approximately the behavior of the object model with a statistical representation based on a sampling of base-model "data" for a variety of test cases. No deep knowledge of the problem area or the object model is required. Unfortunately, such statistical metamodels can have insidious shortcomings, even if they are reasonably accurate "on average." This monograph describes some of those shortcomings and proposes a way (motivated metamodeling) to do better, which amounts to drawing upon an approximate understanding of the phenomena at work (i.e., upon approximate theory) to suggest variables for and perhaps the analytical form of the metamodel. This approach is hardly radical, but it is quite different from what happens in normal statistical metamodeling. The quality of metamodels can sometimes be greatly improved with relatively modest infusions of theory.


Principles of Modeling and Simulation

Principles of Modeling and Simulation
Author: John A. Sokolowski
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 211
Release: 2011-09-20
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118210948

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Explores wide-ranging applications of modeling and simulation techniques that allow readers to conduct research and ask "What if?" Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach is the first book to provide an introduction to modeling and simulation techniques across diverse areas of study. Numerous researchers from the fields of social science, engineering, computer science, and business have collaborated on this work to explore the multifaceted uses of computational modeling while illustrating their applications in common spreadsheets. The book is organized into three succinct parts: Principles of Modeling and Simulation provides a brief history of modeling and simulation, outlines its many functions, and explores the advantages and disadvantages of using models in problem solving. Two major reasons to employ modeling and simulation are illustrated through the study of a specific problem in conjunction with the use of related applications, thus gaining insight into complex concepts. Theoretical Underpinnings examines various modeling techniques and introduces readers to two significant simulation concepts: discrete event simulation and simulation of continuous systems. This section details the two primary methods in which humans interface with simulations, and it also distinguishes the meaning, importance, and significance of verification and validation. Practical Domains delves into specific topics related to transportation, business, medicine, social science, and enterprise decision support. The challenges of modeling and simulation are discussed, along with advanced applied principles of modeling and simulation such as representation techniques, integration into the application infrastructure, and emerging technologies. With its accessible style and wealth of real-world examples, Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach is a valuable book for modeling and simulation courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners working in statistics, mathematics, engineering, computer science, economics, and the social sciences who would like to further develop their understanding and knowledge of the field.


Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2007
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0833041266

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An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.


Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 181
Release: 2005
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0833038087

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A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.


Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 408
Release: 2019-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.


New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Author: Stuart E. Johnson
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 415
Release: 2003
Genre: History
ISBN: 0833032895

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The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÑand then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ñtransformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÑfrom modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.


Selected Rand Abstracts

Selected Rand Abstracts
Author: Rand Corporation
Publisher:
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2003
Genre: Abstracts
ISBN:

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Includes publications previously listed in the supplements to the Index of selected publications of the Rand Corporation (Oct. 1962-Feb. 1963).


Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science VIII

Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science VIII
Author: Dawn A. Trevisani
Publisher: SPIE-International Society for Optical Engineering
Total Pages: 502
Release: 2004
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9780819453464

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Proceedings of SPIE present the original research papers presented at SPIE conferences and other high-quality conferences in the broad-ranging fields of optics and photonics. These books provide prompt access to the latest innovations in research and technology in their respective fields. Proceedings of SPIE are among the most cited references in patent literature.


Forthcoming Books

Forthcoming Books
Author: Rose Arny
Publisher:
Total Pages: 1816
Release: 2003
Genre: American literature
ISBN:

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