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Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
Author: Mokhtar Benlamine
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018-02-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484342607

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The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.


Morocco

Morocco
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Morocco Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.


Morocco

Morocco
Author: Mokhtar Benlamine
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Morocco Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.


The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios

The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios
Author: Aya Achour
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2021-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513573322

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The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.


Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.


Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021-10-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589067266

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This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.


The Liquidation of Government Debt

The Liquidation of Government Debt
Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2015-01-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498338380

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High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.


Morocco's Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth

Morocco's Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth
Author: Roberto Cardarelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 244
Release: 2023-10-09
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

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Throughout the past two decades, Morocco has faced several external and domestic shocks, including large swings in international oil prices, regional geopolitical tensions, severe droughts, and most recently the impact of the pandemic and the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite rough waters, the government stayed the course and remained focused not only on immediate stability, but also on the long-term needs of the Moroccan economy. This involved the adoption of a series of difficult measures, like the elimination of energy subsidies, and a strategy aimed at improving the country's infrastructure, diversifying the production and export bases by attracting foreign investment, and modernizing the governance structure of the public administration. The road to higher and more inclusive growth, however, remains steep. Despite gains in poverty reduction, literacy and lifespans, Morocco economy continues to face a high share of inactive youth, large gaps in economic opportunities for women, a fragmented social protection system, and remaining barriers to private sector development. An ambitious reform agenda is needed to better meet the aspirations of Moroccans, by making economic growth stronger, more resilient and more inclusive, particularly to provide greater opportunities for young, women, and entrepreneurs. Morocco appears well positioned to address these challenges, and indeed, the country has recently sought to define and pursue a new "model of development", through national debates and a more inclusive approach to reform. Significant reforms have been announced recently that revamp both the social protection system and the SOEs business model. This book draws lessons from the reforms Morocco has implemented in the past few decades and charts a course for Morocco by addressing key areas for reform.


Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia

Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia
Author: Masahiro Kawai
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 321
Release: 2012-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857933353

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Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.


Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems

Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems
Author: John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 1993
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 155775327X

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This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.