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| Author | : Alexander Robinson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 100 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : H. Jay Zwally |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 22 |
| Release | : 2002 |
| Genre | : Artificial satellites in earth sciences |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Daniella N. Della-Giustina |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 78 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Glaciers |
| ISBN | : |
The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cites ice sheet dynamics as the greatest source of uncertainty for predicting current and future rates of sea level rise. This has prompted the development and use of ice sheet models that are capable of simulating the flow and evolution of ice sheets and their corresponding sea level contribution. In the Arctic, the Greenland ice sheet appears to be responding to a warming climate more quickly than expected. In order to determine sea level contribution from Greenland, it is necessary to capture the regional dynamics of the fast flowing outlet glaciers that drain the ice sheet. This work has developed a novel regional model capable of simulating an outlet glacier, and its associated drainage basin, as a mode of using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model. Specifically, it focuses on modeling the Jakobshavn Isbrae as a demonstration. The Jakobshavn Isbrae is one of the world's fastest flowing outlet glaciers, and accounts for nearly 5% of ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Additionally, the Jakobshavn Isbrae has been widely studied for several decades, and a wealth of remotely sensed and in situ data is available in this region. These data are used as model input and for model validation. We have completed a parameter study in this work to examine the behavior of the regional model. The purpose of this study was not to tune the model to match observations, but rather to look at the influence of parameter choices on the ice dynamics. Model results indicate that we have identified the subset of the model parameter space that is appropriate for modeling this outlet glacier. Additionally, we are able to produce some of this more interesting features that have been observed at Jakobshavn, such as the development and disintegration of a floating ice tongue and the distribution of observed surface velocities. We validate these model results by comparison with recent spatially rich measurements of ice surface speeds, as well as ice geometry.
| Author | : Clare M. Goodess |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 272 |
| Release | : 1992 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Johannes Oerlemans |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 414 |
| Release | : 2013-06-29 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9401578230 |
Proceedings of the Symposium on Glacier Fluctuations and Climatic Change, held in Amsterdam, June 1-5, 1987
| Author | : Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Ice sheets |
| ISBN | : |
The Greenland Ice Sheet, which extends south of the Arctic Circle, is vulnerable to melt in a warming climate. Complete melt of the ice sheet would raise global sea level by about 7 meters. Prediction of how the ice sheet will react to climate change requires inputs with a high degree of spatial resolution and improved simulation of the ice-dynamical responses to evolving surface mass balance. No Greenland Ice Sheet model has yet met these requirements. A three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model of Greenland was enhanced to address these challenges. First, it was modified to accept high-resolution surface mass balance forcings. Second, a parameterization for basal drainage (of the sort responsible for sustaining the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream) was incorporated into the model. The enhanced model was used to investigate the century to millennial-scale evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to persistent climate trends. During initial experiments, the mechanism of flow in the outlet glaciers was assumed to be independent of climate change, and the outlet glaciers' dominant behavior was to counteract changes in surface mass balance. Around much of the ice sheet, warming resulted in calving front retreat and reduction of total ice sheet discharge. Observations show, however, that the character of outlet glacier flow changes with the climate. The ice sheet model was further developed to simulate observed dynamical responses of Greenland's outlet glaciers. A phenomenological description of the relation between outlet glacier discharge and surface mass balance was calibrated against recent observations. This model was used to investigate the ice sheet's response to a hypothesized 21st century warming trend. Enhanced discharge accounted for a 60% increase in Greenland mass loss, resulting in a net sea level increment of 7.3 cm by year 2100. By this time, the average surface mass balance had become negative, and widespread marginal thinning had caused 30% of historically active calving fronts to retreat. Mass losses persisted throughout the century due to flow of dynamically responsive outlets capable of sustaining high calving rates. Thinning in these areas propagated upstream into higher elevation catchments. Large drainage basins with low-lying outlets, especially those along Greenland's west coast and those fed by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, were most susceptible to dynamic mass loss in the 21st century.
| Author | : Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 156 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Climatic changes |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 252 |
| Release | : 2002-04-23 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309133041 |
The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.
| Author | : Gail Ruth Gutowski |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Changes to ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) are going to play a significant role in future sea level rise (SLR), particularly for the Greenland ice sheet. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) found that Greenland ice sheet (GIS) response to changes in SMB is expected to contribute 9 ± 4 cm to sea level by 2100 (Fettweis et al 2013), though other estimates suggest the possibility of an even larger response. Modern ice sheet geometry and surface velocities are common metrics for determining a model's predictability of future climate. However, care must be taken to robustly quantify prediction uncertainty because errors in boundary conditions such as SMB can be compensated by (and therefore practically inseparable from) errors in other aspects of the model, complicating calculations of total uncertainty. We find that SMB calculated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) differs from established standards due to errors in the CESM SMB boundary condition. During the long ice sheet initialization process, small SMB errors such as these have an opportunity to amplify into larger uncertainties in GIS sensitivity to climate change. These uncertainties manifest themselves in ice sheet surface geometry changes, ice mass loss, and subsequent SLR. While any bias in SMB is not desirable, it is not yet clear how sensitive SLR projections are to boundary condition forcing errors. We explore several levels of SMB forcing bias in order to analyze their influence on future SLR. We evaluate ensembles of ice sheets forced by 4 different levels of SMB forcing error, covering a range of errors similar to SMB biases between CESM and RACMO SMB. We find that GIS SMB biases on the order of 1 m/yr result in 7.8 ± 3.4 cm SLR between 1850 and 2100, corresponding to 100% uncertainty at the 2[sigma] level. However, we find unexpected feedbacks between SMB and surface geometry in the northern GIS. We propose that the use of elevation classes may be incorrectly altering the feedback mechanisms in that part of the ice sheet.
| Author | : National Research Council |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 298 |
| Release | : 2011-03-11 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309151767 |
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. Emissions reductions decisions made today matter in determining impacts experienced not just over the next few decades, but in the coming centuries and millennia. According to Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia, important policy decisions can be informed by recent advances in climate science that quantify the relationships between increases in carbon dioxide and global warming, related climate changes, and resulting impacts, such as changes in streamflow, wildfires, crop productivity, extreme hot summers, and sea level rise. One way to inform these choices is to consider the projected climate changes and impacts that would occur if greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stabilized at a particular concentration level. The book quantifies the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations using analyses and information drawn from the scientific literature. Although it does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts. Climate Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others.
