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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
Author: Juan Zalduendo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2007-03-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451866346

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This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.


Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources
Author: Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2007
Genre: Balance of payments
ISBN:

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This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.


Review of Access Policy in the Credit Tranches and Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Exceptional Access Policy

Review of Access Policy in the Credit Tranches and Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Exceptional Access Policy
Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2008-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498334946

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This paper reviews the Fund’s access policy under its main financing facilities in the General Resources Account (GRA) and under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). It responds to the Board’s request for a periodic review of the access policy, that is, the rules and practices that govern the amount of financing the Fund makes available to its members.


Adequacy of Fund Resources—Further Considerations

Adequacy of Fund Resources—Further Considerations
Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2021-03-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513571257

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This paper is part of the workplan on the 15th General Review of Quotas (15th Review). The paper provides a two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources, building on the staff paper discussed by the Board in March 2016. The second pillar of the framework is qualitative in nature. The paper also provides information to support a discussion on the mix of Fund resources.


Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection
Author: Nicolas Mäder
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2019-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498324614

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Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.


Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks

Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks
Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2009-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451874081

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This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks are found to be significant determinants of Fund financing. Moreover, global conditions, including changes in real oil and non-oil commodity prices and world trade, are also significant. Therefore, the demand for Fund financing by LICs is likely to be cyclical in response to common shocks with its intensity depending on the severity and persistence of adverse shocks.


Thirteenth General Review of Quotas - Assessing the Adequacy of IMF Resources

Thirteenth General Review of Quotas - Assessing the Adequacy of IMF Resources
Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2007-11-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498333141

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The Thirteenth Review provides an opportunity to take stock of the overall adequacy of IMF resources in light of developments in the world economy and the international monetary system. The Resolution concluding the Twelfth Review indicated that the Executive Board intended, during the period of the Thirteenth Review, to monitor closely and assess the adequacy of Fund resources and to consider measures to achieve a distribution of quotas that reflects developments in the world economy and to strengthen the governance of the Fund. The latter two issues have since been taken up under the work program on quota and voice reform. Accordingly, the focus of this paper is on the adequacy of Fund resources.


Handbook of the International Political Economy of Monetary Relations

Handbook of the International Political Economy of Monetary Relations
Author: Thomas Oatley
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 507
Release: 2014-06-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857938371

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This extensive Handbook provides an in-depth exploration of the political economy dynamics associated with the international monetary and financial systems. Leading experts offer a fresh take on research into the interaction between system structure, t


Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2014-05-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498343694

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With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.


The International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund
Author: Graham Bird
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2016-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 085793970X

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There is no shortage of opinion about the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Some see it as the agent of austerity, being manipulated by wealthy nations and forcing poorer countries to pursue economic policies that suppress growth and development. A sharply contrasting view regards it as bailing out such countries with large amounts of soft finance, allowing them to avoid necessary adjustment. The challenge is to evaluate the alternative arguments and to distinguish reality from rhetoric. In this book, the authors undertake a careful and detailed empirical analysis of the underlying issues, covering participation in IMF programs, their implementation and effects on economic growth, and on the willingness of international capital markets to lend. Blending research methodologies and crossing conventional disciplinary boundaries, what emerges is a balanced and nuanced assessment of the IMF’s operations that confronts many commonly held views. Unique in its broad scope, this careful examination of the IMF will be of great interest to students and academics in the fields of international economics and international relations. Those involved in international financial institutions and national monetary institutions will also find it to be an impartial and illuminating study.