Modal Shifts In Short Haul Passenger Travel And The Consequent Energy Impacts PDF Download

A study was performed to evaluate the impacts of strategies to effect modal shifts in short-haul passenger travel (defined herein as intercity travel under 500 miles) from energy-intensive modes to those modes that are less energy-intensive. A series of individual strategies, ranging from incentives to the less energy-intensive modes (bus, rail) to penalties to the more energy-intensive modes (auto, air) was examined to determine energy saved and policy implications relative to strategy implementation. The most effective of the individual strategies were then combined in all permutations, and the analysis was repeated. As part of the analytical process, effects of factors other than energy (user cost and time, emissions, government subsidy, and travel fatailities) were examined in a benefit/cost analysis. Finally, energy savings, benefit/cost impacts, implementation considerations, and policy implications were evaluated to arrive at conclusions as to the effectiveness of the more-influential strategies and to the overall effectiveness of induced modal shifts. The principal conclusion of the study is that the maximum 1980 energy saving that might be realized by modal shifts, discounting the concurrent effects of demand suppression and improvement of mode efficiency, is approximately 83 x 1012 Btu (46,500 bbl gasoline per day), 3.8% of the total projected 1980 energy consumption in the short-haul transportation sector and 0.23% of the total US petroleum use. It was also concluded that strategies to achieve these small savings by modal shifts would result in significant economic, social, and business disruptions.