Methods For Estimating Future Burning Index From Fire Weather Forecasts And Local Weather Observations PDF Download

Excerpt from Using Fire-Weather Forecasts and Local Weather Observations in Predicting Burning Index for Individual Fire-Danger Stations Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for con verting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind Speed into predicted values for individual fire-danger stations. Difficulties in preparation and use of these aids by field personnel were investigated during 2 summers on 5 ranger districts in the na tional forests of Oregon and Washington. Emphasis was given to ac curacy of predictions of changes and other situations important to fire control. Actually tested were: (1) aids for adapting area forecasts of wind speed and relative humidity, (2) a procedure for predicting wind speed, (3) aids for the use of predicted relative humidity in forecast ing fuel moisture, and (4) routine statistical procedures for predicting wind Speed, fuel moisture, relative humidity, and burning index class. Performance of the various methods varied considerably be tween stations, depending on the complexity of the relation between station weather and the prevailing weather situation. Aids utilizing area forecasts could not, of course, correct basic forecast errors. Aids based on climatic averages would be incorrect with any depar ture from a normal weather situation. Difficulty of aid preparation was another serious handicap. Nevertheless, certain aids showed real promise for some stations, thus permitting more intensive use of forecasts and other weather information now available. In the course of the study, improvements were made in methods previously suggested for predicting the burning index. But, perhaps most import ant, the study emphasizes that much more research will be needed before fire weather and fire danger can be predicted with enough ac curacy to meet adequately the needs of forest-fire control. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.