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Maturity and Volume Effects on the Volatility

Maturity and Volume Effects on the Volatility
Author: Pratap Chandra Pati
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study attempts to examine the volatility dynamics and investigate the Samuelson Maturity Hypothesis, a source of non-stationary in volatility of futures price in the context of Indian Futures Market, by taking Nifty Index Futures traded on NSE. The data sample consist of daily closing price, volume and open interest of Nifty index futures from the period January 1, 2002 to December 29, 2005 for near month contract with 1009 sample data points. We construct data sample for time-to-maturity by rolling or switching over to the next maturing contract four days before the expiration date. For empirical analysis, ARMA-GARCH, ARMA-EGARCH models have been estimated. The empirical evidence suggests that there is time-varying volatility, volatility clustering and leverage effect in Indian futures market. This study does not provide support for the Samuelson Hypothesis in Indian futures market. The coefficient of the time-to-maturity variable is found to be insignificant. With respect to volume-volatility relationship, the results indicate a clear acceptance of Mixtures of Distribution Hypothesis i.e. there is positive contemporaneous relationship between futures prices volatility and volume. Hence this study concludes that time-to-maturity is not a strong determinant of futures price volatility, but rate of information arrival proxyed by volume and open interest are the important sources of volatility.


Trader Type Effects on the Volatility-Volume Relationship

Trader Type Effects on the Volatility-Volume Relationship
Author: Aris Kartsaklas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines empirically the volatility-volume relationship implied by various market microstructure models which associate movements in prices and trading volume with information, dispersion of beliefs and trading motives. Our unique dataset allows to investigate whether different types of traders (members vs non-members, institutional vs individual) have a positive or negative effect upon volatility. Our empirical results show that surprises in non-member investors' trading volume are positively related with volatility in most of the cases. These results are more reinforcing in the case of log-volume and generally consistent with existing theoretical and empirical evidence. As regards member investors, we primarily find that unexpected volume is positively related to volatility, providing further support for the argument that informed rational speculators exacerbate volatility especially when noise traders follow positive feedback strategies. Another result of our study is that the coefficients relating the unexpected component of open interest with volatility are uniformly negative, implying that an increase in open interest during the day lessens the impact of a volume shock in volatility. Finally, when we allow for time-to-maturity effects, non-member institutional investors are not associated with any movement in volatility while surprises in open interest are associated with more volatility towards the end of the contract life.


Maturity Effects in Futures Markets

Maturity Effects in Futures Markets
Author: Rita Madarassy Akin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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This essay examines the volatility dynamics of the financial futures returns. Samuelson (1965) demonstrated theoretically that the conditional variance of changes in futures prices should increase as the time-to-maturity decreases. Interestingly, the empirical evidence on the Samuelson hypothesis is mixed. This essay revisits that issue, applying a unified GARCH framework to a unique data set of daily data, spanning 19 years up to 2000, and eleven types of financial contracts (currencies, Samp;P500, Nikkei 225, Eurodollar, Treasury Bills). The conditional variance equation is augmented by time-to-maturity, open interest and trading volume variables. I detect evidence for a role of the time-to-maturity in currency futures, and mixed evidence in equity index and interest rate futures. Lagged trading volume and open interest are positively related to volatility in most of these financial futures but they do not fully account for the estimated conditional variance.


Reexamining the Maturity Effect Using Extensive Futures Data

Reexamining the Maturity Effect Using Extensive Futures Data
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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In his seminal article, Samuelson (1965) proposes the maturity effect that volatility of futures prices should increase as futures contract approaches expiration. This study provides new evidence on the maturity effect by examining a more extensive set of futures contracts over longer period than previous studies: 8451 futures contracts drawn from 74 commodities and four International exchanges, (London, Sydney, Tokyo and Winnipeg Futures), in addition to the U.S. markets over the years from 1960 to 2000. Strong support is found for the maturity effect in agricultural and energy commodities, but not for financial futures. Moreover, negative covariance between spot price and net carry cost appears to be able explain the maturity effect fairly well for commodity futures.


Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets
Author: Stephen Satchell
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 428
Release: 2011-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080471420

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Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling


An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India

An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India
Author: Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2018-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668659958

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Project Report from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , course: Ph. D, language: English, abstract: Every modern economy is based on a sound financial system and acts as a monetary channel for productive purpose with effecting economic growth. It encourages saving habit by throwing open and plethora of instrument avenues suiting to the individuals requirements, mobilizing savings from households and other segments and allocating savings into productive usage such as trade, commerce, manufacture etc. Thus a financial system can also be understood as institutional arrangements, through which financial surpluses are mobilized from the units generating surplus income and transferring them to the others in need of them. In nutshell, financial market, financial assets, financial services and financial institutions constitute the financial system. The activities include exchange and holding of financial assets or instruments of different kinds of financial institutions, banks and other intermediaries of the market. Financial markets provide channels for allocation of savings to investment and provide variety of assets to savers in various forms in which the investors can park their funds. At the same time, financial market is one that integral part of the financial system which makes significant contribution to the countries’ economic development. It establishes a link between the demand and supply of long-term capital funds. The economic strength of a country depends squarely on the state of financial market, apart from the productive potential of the country. The efficient allocation of fund by the capital market depends on the state of capital market. All the countries therefore focus more on the functioning of the capital market. Indian financial market has faced many challenges in the process of effecting more efficient allocation and mobilization of capital. It has attained a remarkable degree of growth in the last decade and in continuing to achieve the same in current decade also. Opening up of the economy and adoption of the liberalized economic policies have driven our economy more towards the free market. Over the last few years, financial markets, more specifically the security market were experiencing a lot of structural and regulatory changes. The major constituents of financial market are money market and the capital market catering to the type of capital requirements.


The Volatility Surface

The Volatility Surface
Author: Jim Gatheral
Publisher:
Total Pages: 179
Release: 2006
Genre: Options (Finance)
ISBN: 9781119202073

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