Masters Of Uncertainty PDF Download
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| Author | : Phaedra Daipha |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 280 |
| Release | : 2015-11-17 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 022629868X |
Download Masters of Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha offers a new framework for understanding decision-making practice after spending years immersed in a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather, Daipha shows how they enlist an onmivorous appetite for information and improvisational collage techniques to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. This richly detailed and lucidly written book advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts new light on how we make decisions in the digital age"--Page {4] of cover.
| Author | : Dennis Merritt Jones |
| Publisher | : Penguin |
| Total Pages | : 306 |
| Release | : 2011-06-09 |
| Genre | : Body, Mind & Spirit |
| ISBN | : 1101516984 |
Download The Art of Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the reader to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment. If the difficulties of recent years have taught us anything-particularly those who "did everything right" and still saw it all fall apart-it's that none of us has as much control over our lives as we believe. The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? What if we discovered that a new paradigm can be more fulfilling, more rewarding, and more peaceful than what we have known? Living in the I don't know and loving it is an art form we can all master, and The Art of Uncertainty is the perfect guidebook.
| Author | : Pema Chödrön |
| Publisher | : Shambhala Publications |
| Total Pages | : 145 |
| Release | : 2019-05-21 |
| Genre | : Religion |
| ISBN | : 1611806801 |
Download Living Beautifully Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Instant bestseller: Buddhist teacher Pema Chödrön shares life-changing practices for living with wisdom, confidence, and integrity amidst confusing situations and uncertain times We live in difficult times. Life so often seems like a turbulent river threatening to drown us and destroy our world. Why, then, shouldn’t we cling to the certainty of the comfortable—to our deep-seated habits and familiar ways? Because, Pema Chödrön teaches, that kind of fear-based clinging keeps us from the infinitely more powerful experience of being fully alive. The Buddhist teachings she presents here—known as the “Three Commitments”—provide a treasure trove of wisdom for learning to step right into the unknown, to completely and fearlessly embrace the groundlessness of being human, for people of all faiths. When we do, we begin to see not only how much better it feels to live an openhearted life, but we find that we begin to naturally and more effectively reach out to help and heal all those around us.
| Author | : John Kay |
| Publisher | : W. W. Norton & Company |
| Total Pages | : 407 |
| Release | : 2020-03-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1324004789 |
Download Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
| Author | : Pema Chödrön |
| Publisher | : Shambhala Publications |
| Total Pages | : 255 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Body, Mind & Spirit |
| ISBN | : 1590305558 |
Download Comfortable with Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.
| Author | : Natasha Brown |
| Publisher | : Little, Brown |
| Total Pages | : 85 |
| Release | : 2021-09-14 |
| Genre | : Fiction |
| ISBN | : 0316268461 |
Download Assembly Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This blistering, fearless, and unforgettable literary novel finds a woman with everything on the line and a life-or-death decision waiting for her—perfect for fans of Claudia Rankine and Jenny Offill. Come of age in the credit crunch. Be civil in a hostile environment. Go to college, get an education, start a career. Do all the right things. Buy an apartment. Buy art. Buy a sort of happiness. But above all, keep your head down. Keep quiet. And keep going. The narrator of Assembly is a black British woman. She is preparing to attend a lavish garden party at her boyfriend’s family estate, set deep in the English countryside. At the same time, she is considering the carefully assembled pieces of herself. As the minutes tick down and the future beckons, she can’t escape the question: is it time to take it all apart? Assembly is a story about the stories we live within – those of race and class, safety and freedom, winners and losers.And it is about one woman daring to take control of her own story, even at the cost of her life. With a steely, unfaltering gaze, Natasha Brown dismantles the mythology of whiteness, lining up the debris in a neat row and walking away. "Virginia Woolf's Mrs. Dalloway meets Claudia Rankine's Citizen...as breathtakingly graceful as it is mercilessly true.”—Olivia Sudjic, author of Sympathy and Asylum Road A woman confronts the most important question of her life in this blistering, fearless, and unforgettable literary debut from "a stunning new writer." (Bernardine Evaristo) “A quiet, measured call to revolution…This is the kind of book that doesn’t just mark the moment things change, but also makes that change possible.”—Ali Smith, author of Summer "Brilliant. Brown's gaze is piercing."—Avni Doshi, author of Burnt Sugar
| Author | : Susan Jeffers, Ph.D. |
| Publisher | : St. Martin's Press |
| Total Pages | : 320 |
| Release | : 2007-04-01 |
| Genre | : Self-Help |
| ISBN | : 1429975865 |
Download Embracing Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author of Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway From the multi-million bestselling author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway comes a powerful and healing book designed to offer a safety net in a world of never-ending change. It may be one of the most comforting and life-affirming books you will ever read. With her invaluable insights and exercises, Susan Jeffers gives you the tools you need to deal with all the uncertainty in your life with a sense of peace and possibility. You will learn: - Forty-two exercises to help make your life an exciting adventure instead of a continuous worry - How to lighten up and put problems into a life-affirming perspective - The amazing power of the word "maybe" - And much more. You will discover that there is a wondrous, joyous, and abundant life that can exist in the presence of uncertainty. The question is, "What do you need to do to reach this wonderful state?" And the answers abound in Embracing Uncertainty..
| Author | : Andy Clark |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
| Total Pages | : 425 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 0190217014 |
Download Surfing Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.
| Author | : Howard Wainer |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 2021-06-08 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1400832896 |
Download Picturing the Uncertain World Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In his entertaining and informative book Graphic Discovery, Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with Picturing the Uncertain World, a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a New Yorker cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. Picturing the Uncertain World takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs. We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read Picturing the Uncertain World and learn how.
| Author | : Rich Diviney |
| Publisher | : Random House |
| Total Pages | : 305 |
| Release | : 2021-01-26 |
| Genre | : Self-Help |
| ISBN | : 0593133943 |
Download The Attributes Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Do you have what it takes to succeed in any situation? According to a retired commander who ran training for Navy SEALs, true optimal performance goes beyond just skill. It’s all about THE ATTRIBUTES. “Diviney’s incredible book explains why some people thrive—even when things get hard.”—Charles Duhigg, New York Times bestselling author of The Power of Habit During his twenty years as a Navy officer and SEAL, Rich Diviney was intimately involved in a specialized SEAL selection process, which whittled a group of hundreds of extraordinary candidates down to a handful of the most elite performers. Diviney was often surprised by which candidates washed out and which succeeded. Some could have all the right skills and still fail, while others he might have initially dismissed would prove to be top performers. The seemingly objective criteria weren’t telling him what he most needed to know: Who would succeed in one of the world’s toughest military assignments? It is similarly hard to predict success in the real world. It happens often enough that underdog students accomplish exceptional achievements while highly skilled, motivated employees fail to meet expectations. Dark-horse companies pull away from the pack while dream teams flush with talent and capital go under. In working with and selecting top special operators for decades, Diviney saw that beneath obvious skills are hidden drivers of performance, surprising core attributes—including cunning, adaptability, courage, even narcissism—that determine how resilient or perseverant we are, how situationally aware and how conscientious. These attributes explain how we perform as individuals and as part of a team. The same methodology that Diviney used in the military can be applied by anyone in their personal and professional lives, and understanding these attributes can allow readers and their teams to perform optimally, at any time, in any situation. Diviney defines the core attributes in fresh and practical ways and shares stories from the military, business, sports, relationships, and even parenting to show how understanding your own attributes and those of the people around you can create optimal performance in all areas of your life.
