Managing Inflation In Socialist Economies In Transition PDF Download

January 1997 In transition economies monetary stability goes hand in hand with adjustment in the real sectors. Subsidies and central bank support of public enterprises to help maintain employment and output are ultimately financed by creating money, reducing the options for market-based monetary policy regardless of how market-oriented the monetary system. De Melo and Denizer examine monetary policy in 26 transition countries in Europe and Central Asia from 1989 to 1995. In a socialist economy money and credit are largely determined as a residual. In a market economy monetary policy plays an active role in economic management and economic efficiency is believed to be improved by variety and sophistication in financial instruments. De Melo and Denizer classify these 26 countries by the extent of market orientation in the use of instruments of monetary policy, by indicators of policy stance, and by broad measures of effectiveness. They evaluate these three dimensions by cross-country comparison over the transition period and at the time of stabilization. They find several clear patterns. By the end of 1994 slightly fewer than half the countries were relying mainly on market-oriented monetary instruments. More than half exhibited low to moderate reliance on them. Countries that quickly formulated a monetary policy response after the break from central planning were more likely to switch to market-oriented instruments. Central and Eastern European countries moved more rapidly than countries of the former Soviet Union toward these instruments. The use of credit ceilings was helpful in the year of stabilization, especially in the Central and Eastern European countries. The elimination of credit controls was associated with effective stabilization. Policy stance, as measured by base money growth and the real discount rate, was effective in helping to reverse undesirable inflation and disintermediation trends. But the relationship between effectiveness and market orientation of monetary policy instruments is less clear. Financial depth is associated with the elimination of credit ceilings and the development of markets for government paper, and inflation is associated with the elimination of directed credit and the establishment of a market-oriented refinancing window. The overall index of the market orientation of monetary policy instruments is negatively related to inflation, but the direction of causality is unclear. On balance, inflation control and financial depth seem to be more directly related to policy stance, which is in turn related to broader structural reform. Monetary stability goes hand in hand with adjustment in the real sectors. Subsidies and central bank support of public enterprises to help maintain employment and output are ultimately financed by creating money, reducing the options for market-based monetary policy regardless of how market-oriented the monetary system. This paper - a product of the Public Economics Division and the Macroeconomics and Growth Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to provide a comparative overview of the progress in transition from a planned to a market economy.