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Managerial Overconfidence, Conservative Accounting and Corporate Investment

Managerial Overconfidence, Conservative Accounting and Corporate Investment
Author: Keiichi Shima
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines the link between managerial overconfidence, conservative accounting and investment. Using Japanese firm data, we estimate a q investment model incorporating real options effects. Consistent with prior studies, we find that managerial overconfidence increases investment--cash flow sensitivity. On the other hand, we find mixed results regarding the relationship between managerial overconfidence and real options. We proxy sales growth for investment return growth and find that firms' investment is positively related to sales growth and negatively related to its volatility. We also find that managerial overconfidence increases both positive sensitivity of investment to sales growth and negative sensitivity of investment to sales growth volatility. In addition, we examine whether conservative accounting mitigates agency costs and investment distortions after controlling for the effect of managerial overconfidence on investment. Contrary to prior studies, we find that conservative accounting increases investment--cash flow sensitivity. However, our results confirm that conservative accounting significantly reduces investment--cash flow sensitivity for firms with managerial overconfidence.


Behavioral Corporate Finance

Behavioral Corporate Finance
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Publisher: College Ie Overruns
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2017-04-16
Genre: Corporations
ISBN: 9781259254864

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Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education

Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education
Author: Maximilian Margolin
Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
Total Pages: 82
Release: 2014-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3954896281

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In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.


Corporate Financial Policies with Overconfident Managers

Corporate Financial Policies with Overconfident Managers
Author: Ulrike Malmendier
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2007
Genre: Corporations
ISBN:

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Many financing choices of US corporations remain puzzling even after accounting for standard determinants such as taxes, bankruptcy costs, and asymmetric information. We propose that managerial beliefs help to explain the remaining variation across and within firms, including variation in debt conservatism and in pecking-order behavior. Managers who believe that their company is undervalued view external financing as overpriced, especially equity financing. As a result, they display pecking-order preferences for internal financing over debt and for debt over equity. They may also exhibit debt conservatism: While they prefer debt to equity, they still underutilize debt relative to its tax benefits. We test these hypotheses empirically, using late option exercise by the CEO as a measure of overconfidence. We find that, conditional on accessing public markets, CEOs who personally overinvest in their companies are significantly less likely to issue equity. They raise 33 cents more debt to cover an additional dollar of financing deficit than their peers. Moreover, the frequency with which they access any external finance (debt or equity) is significantly lower, resulting in debt conservatism. The results replicate when identifying managerial overconfidence based on press portrayal as confident or optimistic. We conclude that managerial overconfidence helps to explain variation in corporate financial policies.


A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 636
Release: 2008-05-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080482244

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Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition


Handbook of the Economics of Finance

Handbook of the Economics of Finance
Author: G. Constantinides
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 698
Release: 2003-11-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780444513632

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Arbitrage, State Prices and Portfolio Theory / Philip h. Dybvig and Stephen a. Ross / - Intertemporal Asset Pricing Theory / Darrell Duffle / - Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance / Wayne E. Ferson / - Consumption-Based Asset Pricing / John y Campbell / - The Equity Premium in Retrospect / Rainish Mehra and Edward c. Prescott / - Anomalies and Market Efficiency / William Schwert / - Are Financial Assets Priced Locally or Globally? / G. Andrew Karolyi and Rene M. Stuli / - Microstructure and Asset Pricing / David Easley and Maureen O'hara / - A Survey of Behavioral Finance / Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler / - Derivatives / Robert E. Whaley / - Fixed-Income Pricing / Qiang Dai and Kenneth J. Singleton.


Corporate Risk

Corporate Risk
Author: Gregory W. Brown
Publisher:
Total Pages: 436
Release: 1999
Genre: Corporations
ISBN: 9781899332588

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An invaluable reference tool that is structured to demonstrate and explore the interaction of business and financial risk, and how risk management enhances shareholder firm value


Earnings Management

Earnings Management
Author: Joshua Ronen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 587
Release: 2008-08-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0387257713

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This book is a study of earnings management, aimed at scholars and professionals in accounting, finance, economics, and law. The authors address research questions including: Why are earnings so important that firms feel compelled to manipulate them? What set of circumstances will induce earnings management? How will the interaction among management, boards of directors, investors, employees, suppliers, customers and regulators affect earnings management? How to design empirical research addressing earnings management? What are the limitations and strengths of current empirical models?


Earnings Quality

Earnings Quality
Author: Jennifer Francis
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 97
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601981147

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This review lays out a research perspective on earnings quality. We provide an overview of alternative definitions and measures of earnings quality and a discussion of research design choices encountered in earnings quality research. Throughout, we focus on a capital markets setting, as opposed, for example, to a contracting or stewardship setting. Our reason for this choice stems from the view that the capital market uses of accounting information are fundamental, in the sense of providing a basis for other uses, such as stewardship. Because resource allocations are ex ante decisions while contracting/stewardship assessments are ex post evaluations of outcomes, evidence on whether, how and to what degree earnings quality influences capital market resource allocation decisions is fundamental to understanding why and how accounting matters to investors and others, including those charged with stewardship responsibilities. Demonstrating a link between earnings quality and, for example, the costs of equity and debt capital implies a basic economic role in capital allocation decisions for accounting information; this role has only recently been documented in the accounting literature. We focus on how the precision of financial information in capturing one or more underlying valuation-relevant constructs affects the assessment and use of that information by capital market participants. We emphasize that the choice of constructs to be measured is typically contextual. Our main focus is on the precision of earnings, which we view as a summary indicator of the overall quality of financial reporting. Our intent in discussing research that evaluates the capital market effects of earnings quality is both to stimulate further research in this area and to encourage research on related topics, including, for example, the role of earnings quality in contracting and stewardship.


All Is Not Lost that Is Delayed

All Is Not Lost that Is Delayed
Author: André Betzer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Using a unique panel data set of private German firms over the period 2002 to 2013 we analyze the relation between managerial overconfidence and investment policy in small and medium-sized firms. We construct direct estimates of managerial overconfidence that are based on sales forecasts. We find that overconfident managers are more likely to invest, and that this relation is driven by expansion investments (as opposed to replacement investments). Most importantly, we provide empirical evidence on the determinants of failed (downsized, delayed or abandoned) corporate investment projects. Controlling for socio-demographic variables and firm characteristics, we find that investment projects planned by overconfident managers are more likely to fail. When we differentiate between the three categories of failure (abandoning, delaying, and downsizing) we find that overconfident managers are more likely to delay, rather than to abandon or downsize, an investment project. We offer an explanation that is based on the theory of cognitive dissonance.