Major Changes In Cyclical Behavior PDF Download
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Author | : Geoffrey H. Moore |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Various structural, institutional, and policy changes have contributed to the evolution of business cycles, since World War II business expansions have been much longer and contractions much shorter than before. Over nearly 200 years of U.S. history expansions have been long relative to contractions when prices had upward secular trends, and shorter when price trends were down. The rising price trend since the 1930's fits this pattern, although we find no association between the rate of inflation during each business cycle and the relative duration of the phases. Shifts in the industrial composition of employment, in labor-force participation, and in the distribution of personal income have all contributed to the post-1945 moderation of cyclical amplitudes. The variability of economic change was low by historical standards in both 1948-69 and 1969-81, although the inflation rate was much higher and real growth on the average lower after 1969. The recent long-term inflation is attributable mainly to the new persistence of upward price movements in business cycle contractions rather than to more rapid price increases during expansions. But prices have always been sensitive to the degree of severity of business contractions, and they still are. The same is true of short-terminterest rates, although they became more sensitive during 1949-82 than before. Despite the deep changes in the economy, many basic characteristics of the business cycle remain unchanged, notably the timing relationships among groups of leading and lagging indicators
Author | : Victor Zarnowitz |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 86 |
Release | : 1984 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Various structural, institutional, and policy changes have contributed to the evolution of business cycles, since World War II business expansions have been much longer and contractions much shorter than before. Over nearly 200 years of U.S. history expansions have been long relative to contractions when prices had upward secular trends, and shorter when price trends were down. The rising price trend since the 1930's fits this pattern, although we find no association between the rate of inflation during each business cycle and the relative duration of the phases. Shifts in the industrial composition of employment, in labor-force participation, and in the distribution of personal income have all contributed to the post-1945 moderation of cyclical amplitudes. The variability of economic change was low by historical standards in both 1948-69 and 1969-81, although the inflation rate was much higher and real growth on the average lower after 1969. The recent long-term inflation is attributable mainly to the new persistence of upward price movements in business cycle contractions rather than to more rapid price increases during expansions. But prices have always been sensitive to the degree of severity of business contractions, and they still are. The same is true of short-terminterest rates, although they became more sensitive during 1949-82 than before. Despite the deep changes in the economy, many basic characteristics of the business cycle remain unchanged, notably the timing relationships among groups of leading and lagging indicators.
Author | : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 50 |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : Price indexes |
ISBN | : |
Download The Cyclical Behavior of Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Robert J. Gordon |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 882 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226304590 |
Download The American Business Cycle Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Author | : Wesley Clair Mitchell |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 332 |
Release | : 1939 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Methods of Measuring Cyclical Behavior ...: Changes in cyclical behavior and average measures Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Wesley Clair Mitchell |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 538 |
Release | : 1935 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Cyclical Behavior Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Wesley Clair Mitchell |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 434 |
Release | : 1951 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download What Happens During Business Cycles Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Laurent Ferrara |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 2018-06-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319790757 |
Download International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author | : Wesley Clair Mitchell |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 340 |
Release | : 1939 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Methods of Measuring Cyclical Behavior ...: The technique of measuring cyclical behavior Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Christina Romer |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper uses simple time series techniques to analyze changes in the short-run behavior of 38 physical production series for 1889-1984. The main finding is that fluctuations in these output series in the periods 1889-1914 and 1947-1984 are very similar, while those in the period 1922- 1939 are anomalous. Relative to the prewar era, the postwar era exhibits only a slight damping of fluctuations and no increase in the persistence of short-run movements. At the same time, the correlation between the growth rates of the 38 goods is very low in both the prewar and postwar eras and has declined slightly over time