Macroeconomic Imbalances Bulgaria PDF Download

This in-depth review takes a broad view of the Bulgarian economy in order to identify actual or potential imbalances and the possible macroeconomic risks which they may entail. Following an economic boom in 2006-2008, the necessary adjustment is taking place. But the burden on the labour market is unnecessarily high. Moreover, more needs to be done to ensure the sustainability of the adjustment once the economy recovers to its growth trend. The main observations of this review are: Following EU accession, some notable internal and external imbalances built up in the Bulgarian economy. The labour market has been hit hard by the crisis and the reintegration of low-skilled workers has proven difficult. The main labour market challenges relate to skills mismatches in some sectors and regions. Despite a pronounced deceleration, unit labour cost (ULC) growth remains one of the fastest in the EU. The current account adjustment is largely structural and is driven by sizable export market share gains, but major vulnerabilities remain. Deleveraging of the corporate sector is on-going, but the still high level of indebtedness will lengthen the adjustment process and keep the corporate sector vulnerable to changes in market sentiment. Fiscal policy is facilitating the adjustment process. In this context, the in-depth review concludes that Bulgaria is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be addressed. In particular, the level of external indebtedness as well as certain macroeconomic developments related to corporate sector deleveraging and the adjustment process through labour markets deserve attention so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects on the functioning of the economy. Possible policy responses should focus on reducing skills and regional labour market mismatches and on reviewing the minimum thresholds for social security contributions. Also, emphasis on boosting total factor productivity remains crucial given that the deleveraging of the corporate sector will probably dampen investment. As a small open catching-up economy with unfettered capital flows and a fixed exchange rate tends to be inherently volatile, macroeconomic policies and banking regulation in Bulgaria should focus on reducing the risks of repeating boom-cycles and on strengthening the risk absorption capacity of economic agents.