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Long-term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh

Long-term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh
Author: Rishabh Sinha
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2017
Genre: Bangladesh
ISBN:

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Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to gain insights on government debt sustainability given different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures.


Toward Great Dhaka

Toward Great Dhaka
Author: Julia Bird
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 205
Release: 2018-07-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 146481239X

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A unique strategic opportunity beckons Bangladesh. Dhaka, the economic powerhouse of the country, stands on the cusp of a dramatic transformation that could make it much more prosperous and livable. Today, Dhaka is prone to flooding, congestion, and messiness, to a point that is clogging its growth. But toward its east, where two major highway corridors will one day intersect, is a vast expanse of largely rural land. And much of it is within 6 kilometers of the most valuable parts of the city. The time to make the most of this eastward opportunity is now. Many parts of East Dhaka are already being developed in a haphazard way at an alarmingly rapid pace. Private developers are buying land and filling it with sand so they can build and sell new houses and apartments. Canals and ponds are disappearing, and the few narrow roads crossing the area are being encroached by construction. This spontaneous development could soon make East Dhaka look like the messy western part of the city, and retrofitting it later will be more difficult and costlier than properly planning and developing it now. Toward Great Dhaka: A New Urban Development Paradigm Eastward seeks to analyze how the opportunity of East Dhaka could be realized. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the study simulates population, housing, economic activity, and commuting times across the 266 unions that constitute Greater Dhaka. It does so under various scenarios for the development of East Dhaka, but always assessing the implications for the entire city. The simulations suggest that pursuing a strategic approach to the development of East Dhaka would make Greater Dhaka a much more productive and livable city than continuing with business as usual. Based on current trends, Greater Dhaka would have a population of 25 million in 2035 and an income per capita of US$8,000 at 2015 prices. However, embracing a strategic approach would add 5 million people to the city. And, it would be a more productive city, with nearly 1.8 million more jobs and an income per capita of more than US$9,200 at 2015 prices, enough to put Dhaka on the map of global cities.


Open and Nimble

Open and Nimble
Author: Daniel Lederman
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 169
Release: 2017-11-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464810435

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Does economic size matter for economic development outcomes? If so are current policies adequately addressing the role of size in the development process? Using working age population as a proxy for country size, Open and Nimble, systematically analyzes what makes small economies unique. Small economies are not necessarily prone to underdevelopment and in fact can achieve very high income levels. Small economies, however, do tend to be highly open to both international trade and foreign direct investment, have highly specialized export structures, and have large government expenditures relative to their Gross Domestic Product. The export structures of small economies are concentrated in a few products or services and in a small number of export destinations. In turn, this export concentration is associated with terms of trade volatility, which combined with high exposure to international trade, implies that small economies tend to face more volatility on average as external volatility permeates national economic life. Yet small economies tend to compensate for their export concentration by being nimble in the sense of being able to change their production and export structure relatively quickly over time. Moreover, limited territory plays a role in shaping how economies are affected by natural disasters, even when the probability of facing such disasters is not necessarily higher among small than among large economies. The combination of large governments with macroeconomic volatility seems to be associated with low national savings rates in small economies. This combination could be a challenge for long-term growth if productivity growth and foreign investment do not compensate for low domestic savings. The book finishes with some thoughts on how policy makers can respond to these issues through coordinated investments and regional integration efforts, as well as fiscal policy reforms aimed at both increasing public savings and conducting countercyclical fiscal policies.


Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas

Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas
Author: Robert J. Nicholls
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 615
Release: 2018-05-29
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3319710931

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This book answers key questions about environment, people and their shared future in deltas. It develops a systematic and holistic approach for policy-orientated analysis for the future of these regions. It does so by focusing on ecosystem services in the world’s largest, most populous and most iconic delta region, that of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. The book covers the conceptual basis, research approaches and challenges, while also providing a methodology for integration across multiple disciplines, offering a potential prototype for assessments of deltas worldwide. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas analyses changing ecosystem services in deltas; the health and well-being of people reliant on them; the continued central role of agriculture and fishing; and the implications of aquaculture in such environments.The analysis is brought together in an integrated and accessible way to examine the future of the Ganges Brahmaputra delta based on a near decade of research by a team of the world’s leading scientists on deltas and their human and environmental dimensions. This book is essential reading for students and academics within the fields of Environmental Geography, Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy focused on solving the world’s most critical challenges of balancing humans with their environments. This book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.


Strengthening Competitiveness In Bangladesh—Thematic Assessment

Strengthening Competitiveness In Bangladesh—Thematic Assessment
Author: Sanjay Kathuria
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2016-07-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464808996

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This is volume 2 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh’s trade prospects. Bangladesh’s ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government’s reform efforts. This second volume provides in-depth analysis across seven cross-cutting themes that underpin most of the findings of pillars 1 and 2 above.


Bangladesh

Bangladesh
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 90
Release: 2018-06-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148436032X

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This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bangladesh economy continues to perform well with robust and stable growth. The strong growth comes with stable inflation, moderate public debt, and greater resilience to external shocks. The country continues to make steady progress in reducing poverty and improving social indicators. Real GDP growth in FY2017 (ending September 30) further accelerated to 7.3 percent from 7.1 percent in the previous fiscal year. The macroeconomic situation is expected to remain robust in FY2018. Growth is projected at about 7 percent with strong domestic demand. Inflation is expected to remain below 6 percent, close to Bangladesh Bank’s target as flood-related pressure on food prices eases with the rice harvest recovery.


Beyond the Annual Budget

Beyond the Annual Budget
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 261
Release: 2012-11-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821396277

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Beyond the Annual Budget is a comprehensive review of country experience with Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs) worldwide. It looks at countries both with and without MTEFs over the period 1990 to 2008 to obtain results about their impact on fiscal performance.


Moving Forward

Moving Forward
Author: Matías Herrera Dappe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 159
Release: 2019-10-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815070

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The erosion of its competitiveness is raising concerns about the sustainability of Bangladesh's growth model based on exports of ready-made garments. To safeguard its comparative advantage in ready-made garments and diversify its exports basket, Bangladesh needs to increase its competitiveness. Improving logistics performance is an important lever with which to do so. Moving Forward: Connectivity and Logistics to Sustain Bangladesh's Success presents a comprehensive assessment of logistics performance and its main determinants. It analyzes freight demand at a spatially disaggregated level, quantifies logistics costs, including the costs of externalities, looks at the factors that determine the stock and quality of infrastructure, and examines the incentives to provide logistics services of a certain type and quality and to charge the observed prices. It also quantifies the potential impacts of removing transport and logistics inefficiencies on Bangladesh's exports and economic geography using a spatial general equilibrium model. Bangladesh's congested, unreliable, and unsophisticated logistics system imposes high costs on the economy. Making it efficient requires a holistic system-wide approach that is based on a comprehensive strategy; improves the quality, capacity, and management of infrastructure; improves the quality and integration of logistics services; and achieves seamless regional connectivity. Moving Forward will be of interest to policy makers, private sector practitioners, and academics with an interest in the performance of Bangladesh's transport and logistics sectors.