Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks In Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility PDF Download

Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks In Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility PDF full book. Access full book title Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks In Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility.

Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
Author: Kyongwook Choi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

We explore the possibility of structural breaks in the daily realized volatility of the Deutschemark/Dollar, Yen/Dollar and Yen/Deutschemark spot exchange rates with observed long-memory behavior. We find that structural breaks in the mean can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility. We propose a VAR-RV-Break model that provides superior predictive ability when the timing of future breaks is known. With unknown break dates and sizes, we find that a VAR-RV-I(d) long memory model provides a robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks.


Forecasting a Long Memory Process Subject to Structural Breaks

Forecasting a Long Memory Process Subject to Structural Breaks
Author: Cindy S.H. Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Forecasting a Long Memory Process Subject to Structural Breaks Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can be well approximated by an auto-regressive (AR) model and suggest using an information criterion (AIC or Mallows' Cp) to choose the order of the approximate AR model. Our method avoids the issue of estimation inaccuracy of the long memory parameter and the issue of spurious breaks in finite sample. Insights from our theoretical analysis are confirmed by Monte Carlo experiments, through which we also find that our method provides a substantial improvement over existing prediction methods. An empirical application to the realized volatility of three exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of our forecasting procedure. The empirical success of the HAR-RV model is explained, from an econometric perspective, by our theoretical and simulation results.


Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View

Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View
Author: Uwe Hassler
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2018-09-07
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119470285

Download Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Provides a simple exposition of the basic time series material, and insights into underlying technical aspects and methods of proof Long memory time series are characterized by a strong dependence between distant events. This book introduces readers to the theory and foundations of univariate time series analysis with a focus on long memory and fractional integration, which are embedded into the general framework. It presents the general theory of time series, including some issues that are not treated in other books on time series, such as ergodicity, persistence versus memory, asymptotic properties of the periodogram, and Whittle estimation. Further chapters address the general functional central limit theory, parametric and semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter, and locally optimal tests. Intuitive and easy to read, Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View offers chapters that cover: Stationary Processes; Moving Averages and Linear Processes; Frequency Domain Analysis; Differencing and Integration; Fractionally Integrated Processes; Sample Means; Parametric Estimators; Semiparametric Estimators; and Testing. It also discusses further topics. This book: Offers beginning-of-chapter examples as well as end-of-chapter technical arguments and proofs Contains many new results on long memory processes which have not appeared in previous and existing textbooks Takes a basic mathematics (Calculus) approach to the topic of time series analysis with long memory Contains 25 illustrative figures as well as lists of notations and acronyms Time Series Analysis with Long Memory in View is an ideal text for first year PhD students, researchers, and practitioners in statistics, econometrics, and any application area that uses time series over a long period. It would also benefit researchers, undergraduates, and practitioners in those areas who require a rigorous introduction to time series analysis.


Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 691
Release: 2008-02-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 044452942X

Download Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.


Structural Change and Long Range Dependence in Volatility of Exchange Rates

Structural Change and Long Range Dependence in Volatility of Exchange Rates
Author: Claudio Morana
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Structural Change and Long Range Dependence in Volatility of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

In this paper we test for the existence of long memory and structural breaks in the realized variance process for the DM/US$ and Yen/US$ exchange rates. While long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted changes in regime. We then compare the forecasting performance of Markov switching models with that of an ARFIMA model. The results indicate that neglecting the break process is not important for very short term forecasting, once it is allowed for a long memory component in the model, but that superior forecasts can be obtained at longer horizons by modelling both long memory and structural change.


Localized Realized Volatility Modelling

Localized Realized Volatility Modelling
Author: Ying Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Localized Realized Volatility Modelling Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

With the recent availability of high-frequency financial data the long range dependence of volatility regained researchers' interest and has lead to the consideration of long memory models for realized volatility. The long range diagnosis of volatility, however, is usually stated for long sample periods, while for small sample sizes, such as e.g. one year, the volatility dynamics appears to be better described by short-memory processes. The ensemble of these seemingly contradictory phenomena point towards short memory models of volatility with nonstationarities, such as structural breaks or regime switches, that spuriously generate a long memory pattern (see e.g. Diebold and Inoue, 2001; Mikosch and Starica, 2004b). In this paper we adopt this view on the dependence structure of volatility and propose a localized procedure for modeling realized volatility. That is at each point in time we determine a past interval over which volatility is approximated by a local linear process. Using S&P500 data we find that our local approach outperforms long memory type models in terms of predictability.


Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates

Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates
Author: Michiel de Pooter
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN: 9051709153

Download Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

This dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two areas in quantitative finance: asset return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. The first part of this dissertation offers contributions to the literature on how to test for sudden changes in unconditional volatility, on modelling realized volatility and on the choice of optimal sampling frequencies for intraday returns. The emphasis in the second part of this dissertation is on the term structure of interest rates.


Recent Advances and Future Directions in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis

Recent Advances and Future Directions in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis
Author: Xiaohong Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 582
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461416531

Download Recent Advances and Future Directions in Causality, Prediction, and Specification Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

This book is a collection of articles that present the most recent cutting edge results on specification and estimation of economic models written by a number of the world’s foremost leaders in the fields of theoretical and methodological econometrics. Recent advances in asymptotic approximation theory, including the use of higher order asymptotics for things like estimator bias correction, and the use of various expansion and other theoretical tools for the development of bootstrap techniques designed for implementation when carrying out inference are at the forefront of theoretical development in the field of econometrics. One important feature of these advances in the theory of econometrics is that they are being seamlessly and almost immediately incorporated into the “empirical toolbox” that applied practitioners use when actually constructing models using data, for the purposes of both prediction and policy analysis and the more theoretically targeted chapters in the book will discuss these developments. Turning now to empirical methodology, chapters on prediction methodology will focus on macroeconomic and financial applications, such as the construction of diffusion index models for forecasting with very large numbers of variables, and the construction of data samples that result in optimal predictive accuracy tests when comparing alternative prediction models. Chapters carefully outline how applied practitioners can correctly implement the latest theoretical refinements in model specification in order to “build” the best models using large-scale and traditional datasets, making the book of interest to a broad readership of economists from theoretical econometricians to applied economic practitioners.


Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao

Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao
Author: Dek Terrell
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 418
Release: 2020-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1789739594

Download Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Including contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao.