Local Modeling Of Us Mortality Rates PDF Download

Using a number of modern predictive modeling methods, we seek to understand the factors that drive mortality in the contiguous United States. The mortality data we use is indexed by county and year as well as age grouped into 18 different bins. We propose a model that adds two important contributions to existing mortality studies. First, instead of building mortality models separately by age or treating age as a fixed covariate, we treat age as a random effect. This is an improvement over previous models because it allows the model in one age group to borrow strength and information from other age groups that are nearby. The result is a multivariate spatiotemporal model and is estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Second, we utilize Gaussian Processes to create nonlinear covariate effects for predictors such as unemployment rate, race, and income. This allows for a more flexible relationship to be modeled between mortality and these important predictors. Understanding that the United States is expansive and diverse, we also allow for many of these affects to vary by location. The amount of flexibility of our model in how predictors relate to mortality has not been used in previous mortality studies and will result in a more accurate model and a more complete understanding of the factors that drive mortality. Both the multivariate nature of the model as well as the non-linear predictors that have an interaction with space will advance the study of mortality beyond what has been done previously and will allow us to better examine the often complicated relationships between the predictors and mortality in different regions.