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| Author | : Robert S. Pindyck |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 58 |
| Release | : 1989 |
| Genre | : Capital investments |
| ISBN | : |
Download Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.
| Author | : Giuseppe Bertola |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 1991 |
| Genre | : Investments |
| ISBN | : |
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Investment is often irreversible, in that installed capital has little or no value unless used in production. In the presence of ongoing uncertainty, an individual firm's irreversible investment policy optimally alternates short bursts of positive gross investment to periods of inaction, when the installed capital stock is allowed to depreciate. The behavior of aggregate investment series is characterized by sluggish, continuous adjustment instead. We argue in this paper that aggregate dynamics should be interpreted in terms of unsynchronized irreversible investment decisions by heterogenous firms, rather than in terms of ad-hoc adjustment cost functions in a representative-agent framework. We propose a closed-form solution for a realistic model of sequential irreversible investment, characterize the aggregate implications of microeconomic irreversibility and idiosyncratic uncertainty, and interpret U.S. data in light of the theoretical results.
| Author | : Ricardo J. Caballero |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 82 |
| Release | : 1997 |
| Genre | : Capital investments |
| ISBN | : |
Download Aggregate Investment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The 90s have witnessed a revival in economists' interest and hope of explaining" aggregate and microeconomic investment behavior. New theories, better econometric" procedures, and more detailed panel data sets are behind this movement. Much of the progress" has occurred at the level of microeconomic theories and evidence; however aggregation and general equilibrium aspects of the investment problem also has been significant." The concept of sunk costs is at the center of modern theories. The implications of these costs for" investment go well beyond the neoclassical response to the irreversible-technological friction" they represent, for they can also lead to first order inefficiencies when interacting with" informational and contractual problems
| Author | : Robert S. Pindyck |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 75 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Most investment expenditures have two important characteristics: First, they are largely irreversible; the firm cannot disinvest, so the expenditures are sunk costs. Second, they can be delayed, allowing the firm to wait for new information about prices, costs, and other market conditions before committing resources. An emerging literature has shown that this has important implications for investment decisions, and for the determinants of investment spending. Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to risk, whether with respect to future cash flows, interest rates, or the ultimate cost of the investment. Thus if a policy goal is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates. This paper presents some simple models of irreversible investment, and shows how optimal investment rules and the valuation of projects and firms can be obtained from contingent claims analysis, or alternatively from dynamic programming. It demonstrates some strengths and limitations of the methodology, and shows how the resulting investment rules depend on various parameters that come from the market environment. It also reviews a number of results and insights that have appeared in the literature recently, and discusses possible policy implications.
| Author | : Robert K. Dixit |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 484 |
| Release | : 2012-07-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400830176 |
Download Investment under Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
| Author | : Robert S. Pindyck |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Developing countries |
| ISBN | : |
Download Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Using the irreversibility approach to investment, a robust, negative relationship between inflation and capital formation is found for high- inflation countries in Latin America and for low- inflation economies in the OECD.
| Author | : Andrew B. Abel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 60 |
| Release | : 1995 |
| Genre | : Capital |
| ISBN | : |
Download The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
When investment decisions cannot be reversed and returns to capital are uncertain, the firm faces a higher user cost of capital than if it could reverse its decisions. This higher user cost tends to reduce the firm's capital stock. Opposing this effect is the irreversibility constraint itself: when the constraint binds, the firm would like to sell capital but cannot. This effect tends to increase the firm's capital stock. We show that a firm with irreversible investment may have a higher or a lower expected capital stock, even in the long run, compared to an otherwise identical firm with reversible investment. Furthermore, an increase in uncertainty can either increase or decrease the expected long-run capital stock under irreversibility relative to that under reversibility. However, changes in the expected growth rate of demand, the interest rate, the capital share in output, and the price elasticity of demand all have unambiguous effects.
| Author | : Mr.Arne Bigsten |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 54 |
| Release | : 1999-07-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451852258 |
Download Adjustment Costs, Irreversibility and Investment Patterns in African Manufacturing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper examines dynamic patterns of investment in Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, assessing the consistency of those patterns with different adjustment cost structures. Using survey data on manufactured firms, we document the importance of zero investment episodes and lumpy investment. The proportion of firms experiencing large investment spikes is significant in explaining aggregate manufacturing investment. Taken together, evidence from descriptive statistics, average investment regressions modeling the response to capital imbalance, and transition data analysis indicate that irreversibility is an important factor considered by firms when making investment plans. The picture is not unanimous however, and some explanations for the mixed results are proposed.
| Author | : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 1997-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451858302 |
Download Investment, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility in Ghana Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Panel data on Ghanaian manufacturing firms are used to test predictions from models of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Information on the entrepreneur’s subjective probability distribution over future demand for the firm’s products is used to construct the expected variance of demand, which is used as a measure of uncertainty. Empirical results support the prediction that firms wait to invest until the marginal revenue product of capital reaches a firm-specific hurdle level. Moreover, higher uncertainty raises the hurdle level that triggers investment, and uncertainty has a negative effect on investment levels that is greater for firms with more irreversible investment.
| Author | : Eduardo S. Schwartz |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 890 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262693189 |
Download Real Options and Investment Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The study of investment under uncertainty was stagnant for several decades until developments in real options revitalized the field. The topics covered in this book include the reasons behind the under-investment programme.
