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Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis
Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2013-01-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461452392

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Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.


Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis
Author: John Guerard
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2013-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781461452409

Download Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.


Financial Forecasting, Analysis, and Modelling

Financial Forecasting, Analysis, and Modelling
Author: Michael Samonas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2015-01-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118921097

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Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.


Financial Analysis, Planning & Forecasting

Financial Analysis, Planning & Forecasting
Author: Alice C. Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 1134
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9812706089

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New Professor Cheng-Few Lee ranks #1 based on his publications in the 26 core finance journals, and #163 based on publications in the 7 leading finance journals (Source: Most Prolific Authors in the Finance Literature: 1959-2008 by Jean L Heck and Philip L Cooley (Saint Joseph's University and Trinity University). Based on the authors' extensive teaching, research and business experiences, this book reviews, discusses and integrates both theoretical and practical aspects of financial planning and forecasting. The book is divided into six parts: Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis, Alternative Finance Theories and Their Application, Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions, Corporate Policies and Their Interrelationships, Short-term Financial Decisions, Financial Planning and Forecasting, and Overview.The theories used in this book are pre-Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and Option Pricing Theory. The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Meaningful real-world examples of using these theories are discussed step-by-step, with relevant data and methodology. Alternative planning and forecasting models are also used to show how the interdisciplinary approach is helpful in making meaningful financial management decisions.


Financial Analysis, Planning & Forecasting

Financial Analysis, Planning & Forecasting
Author: John C Lee
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 1392
Release: 2016-08-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981472386X

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This book is an introduction-level text that reviews, discusses, and integrates both theoretical and practical corporate analysis and planning. The field can be divided into five parts: (1) Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis; (2) Alternative Finance Theories and Cost of Capital; (3) Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions; (4) Corporate Policies and their Interrelationships; (5) Financial Planning and Forecasting. The theories used and discussed in this book can be grouped into the following classical theoretical areas of corporate finance: (1) Pre-M&M Theory, (2) M&M Theory, (3) CAPM, and (4) Option Pricing Theory (OPT). The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Real world examples are used to enrich the learning experience; and alternative planning and forecasting models are used to show how the interdisciplinary approach can be used to make meaningful financial-management decisions. In this third edition, we have extensively updated and expanded the topics of financial analysis, planning and forecasting. New chapters were added, and some chapters combined to present a holistic view of the subject and much of the data revised and updated.


Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS

Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS
Author: John B. Guerard
Publisher: SAS Institute
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2019-04-03
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1635266890

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Choose statistically significant stock selection models using SAS® Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS®: Financial Modeling Techniques for Optimization is an introduction to using SAS to choose statistically significant stock selection models, create mean-variance efficient portfolios, and aggressively invest to maximize the geometric mean. Based on the pioneering portfolio selection techniques of Harry Markowitz and others, this book shows that maximizing the geometric mean maximizes the utility of final wealth. The authors draw on decades of experience as teachers and practitioners of financial modeling to bridge the gap between theory and application. Using real-world data, the book illustrates the concept of risk-return analysis and explains why intelligent investors prefer stocks over bonds. The authors first explain how to build expected return models based on expected earnings data, valuation ratios, and past stock price performance using PROC ROBUSTREG. They then show how to construct and manage portfolios by combining the expected return and risk models. Finally, readers learn how to perform hypothesis testing using Bayesian methods to add confidence when data mining from large financial databases.


Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets

Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets
Author: Stephen Satchell
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 299
Release: 2011-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080550673

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Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques. *Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives


Quantitative Investment Analysis

Quantitative Investment Analysis
Author: Richard A. DeFusco
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 576
Release: 2011-01-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118044789

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In the Second Edition of Quantitative Investment Analysis, financial experts Richard DeFusco, Dennis McLeavey, Jerald Pinto, and David Runkle outline the tools and techniques needed to understand and apply quantitative methods to today's investment process. Now, in Quantitative Investment Analysis Workbook, Second Edition, they offer you a wealth of practical information and exercises that will further enhance your understanding of this discipline. This essential study guide--which parallels the main book chapter by chapter--contains challenging problems and a complete set of solutions as well as concise learning outcome statements and summary overviews. If you're looking to successfully navigate today's dynamic investment environment, the lessons found within these pages can show you how. Topics reviewed include: The time value of money Discounted cash flow Probability distributions Sampling and estimation Hypothesis testing Multiple regression Time-series analysis And much more


Forecasting Financial Markets

Forecasting Financial Markets
Author: Tony Plummer
Publisher:
Total Pages: 280
Release: 1990
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Takes the mystery out of financial markets by providing a straightforward analytical framework for trading. Offers a unifying rationale for technical analysis of markets, making it more of a ``science'' than ever before. Begins with a discussion of how emotional elements permeate economic and financial behaviors and how forecasters can remain independent from such behavior. The more reliable theories of natural systems and price pulse--continuously recurring price patterns--are introduced and examined in detail. The author shows analysts how to use these techniques to forecast price movement profile, extent, and timing of reversals, putting investors on the road to trading with minimum risk and maximum success.


Investments

Investments
Author: Frederick Amling
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Total Pages: 776
Release: 1978
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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