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International Evidence on the Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Liquidity

International Evidence on the Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Liquidity
Author: FNU Pratima
Publisher:
Total Pages: 175
Release: 2021
Genre: Economic policy
ISBN:

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In this dissertation, I investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market liquidity across a broad cross-section of countries. My dissertation is composed of three distinct yet related essays. My first essay examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity and various firm-level cross-sectional variables explaining the uncertainty-liquidity relationship. The focus of the second essay, using a sample for non-U.S. stocks cross-listed in the U.S., is to examine the role of cross-listing in moderating the above impact. In the third essay, I examine the market liquidity and country-level factors that explain the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and market liquidity.In the first essay, I investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity using an international sample of twenty-four countries spanning twenty-three years. The sample countries include fourteen developed and ten emerging countries. In this essay, I initially provide global evidence on the adverse impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock liquidity.The result holds for all the countries in the sample except Croatia and Russia. Subsequently, I investigate the role of firms' information environment in explaining the uncertainty-liquidity relationship. Considering informational transparency and quality of information as two aspects of the information environment, I find that firm-level informational transparency plays a significant role in mitigating EPU's effect on stock liquidity, whereas the quality of information does not.In the second essay, I investigate whether cross-listing a non-U.S. stock in the U.S. reduces the detrimental impact of EPU on the liquidity of that stock. My sample of cross-listed stocks includes the stocks from twenty countries, cross-listed in the U.S. In this essay, I first examine how domestic and U.S. EPUs affect the domestic liquidity of cross-listed stocks relative to their non-cross-listed domestic counterparts. Based on the findings, I document that cross-listing helps mitigate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity--literature on cross-listing and liquidity documents that the impact of cross-listing on liquidity is contingent upon country characteristics. Using further analysis, I show that the role of cross-listing in mitigating the negative impact of EPU on domestic liquidity is contingent on home country characteristics. I provide evidence that cross-listing helps mitigate the negative impact for the stocks of developed strong governance countries but not for stocks of emerging and weak governance countries. The role of cross-listing in moderating the relationship between EPU and liquidity is stronger for common law countries relative to civil law countries.In the third essay, I examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market liquidity. Using a broad sample of twenty-four countries, I focus on the country-level characteristics that affect the EPU-liquidity relationship. Specifically, I study the role of market segmentation, financial development, funding constraint, and the country's governance structure in shaping the above relationship. I find that a country's financial development and its governance mechanism help mitigate EPU's negative effect on stock market liquidity. However, market integration, as captured through trade openness and political stability, worsen the impact.


Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises

Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises
Author: Allen N. Berger
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 296
Release: 2015-11-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128005319

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Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank’s performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank’s output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts


Policy Uncertainty in Japan

Policy Uncertainty in Japan
Author: Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2017-05-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484302362

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We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.


Trade Credit and Bank Credit

Trade Credit and Bank Credit
Author: Inessa Love
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2005
Genre: Bank loans
ISBN:

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"The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand "--World Bank web site.


Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Behaviour

Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Behaviour
Author: Xun Lei
Publisher:
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper studies how the Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) new measure capturing economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is related to stock market performance in the United States. We use a variety of methods to estimate different specifications. We find that an increase in the EPU index negatively affects the S&P500 returns and raises its implied volatility. However, there is no evidence to support that an increase in the EPU has a significant influence on dividend growth. Furthermore, the component of the EPU that has the strongest explanatory power is that based on newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, while the other three components lack statistical significance. These findings suggest that the news information is an economically important risk factor for a financial market. This study also provides some further discussion on characteristics portfolio and predictability of cash flow and discount rate. Governments should try to maintain policy stability and sustainability, so that investors can make reasonable predictions about policy changes and arrange their investment planning accordingly. Moreover, investors should also pay attention to expectations of policy change and adjust their portfolios based on policy uncertainty exposure.


Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making
Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 941
Release: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814417351

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This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).


Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Performance

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Performance
Author: Vichet Sum
Publisher:
Total Pages: 7
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study investigates the effect of the changes in economic policy uncertainty in Europe on the performance of stock markets in the European Union, Croatia, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine. Based on the analyses of monthly returns on the major stock market indices in these countries from 1993:2 to 2012:4, the results show that the changes in economic policy uncertainty in Europe negatively affect all stock market returns in the European Union, Croatia, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine, and the effect is statistically significant for all countries except Croatia and seven members (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia) of the European Union. The findings provide empirical evidence of the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the stock market performance in Europe. This study provides important implication for equity investment and risk management.


Market Liquidity

Market Liquidity
Author: Thierry Foucault
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 531
Release: 2023
Genre: Capital market
ISBN: 0197542069

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"The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--


Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?

Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?
Author: Mr.Julan Du
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2003-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451847130

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This paper studies the role of insider trading in explaining cross-country differences in stock market volatility. The central finding is that countries with more prevalent insider trading have more volatile stock markets, even after one controls for liquidity/maturity of the market and the volatility of the underlying fundamentals (volatility of real output and of monetary and fiscal policies). Moreover, the effect of insider trading is quantitively significant when compared with the effect of economic fundamentals.


Emerging Markets and the Global Economy

Emerging Markets and the Global Economy
Author: Mohammed El Hedi Arouri
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 927
Release: 2013-12-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0124115632

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Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies