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International commodity prices, macroeconomic performance and politics in Sub-Saharan Africa

International commodity prices, macroeconomic performance and politics in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Release: 1996
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Looks at SSA experience of dealing with commodity price variability, and discusses whether poor macroeconomic results can be attributed to the inherent difficulty of predicting commodity price fluctuations, or to flawed internal political and fiscal arrangements. Also gives attention to the effects of commodity prices on political outcomes, and whether the survival of African leaders is affected by the changes in national output associated with fluctuations in international prices.


Commodity Terms of Trade

Commodity Terms of Trade
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2009-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451873522

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We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.


Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 137
Release: 2012-05-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616352493

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Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region's low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.


Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 408
Release: 2012-10-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475545193

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In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.


Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms

Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms
Author: Ms.Olessia Korbut
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2011-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455217867

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Economic stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has led several economists to question the region’s ability to attain sustained economic growth, some of them arguing for the need to shift away from natural resource - based exports. Yet, we find that low growth has not been common to all SSA countries and that those that achieved political stability and significantly liberalized their economies experienced high growth in income per capita, as high as ASEAN-5 countries. This group of SSA countries attained high growth while maintaining their specialization in natural resource exports. Our analysis also rejects the hypothesis of reverse causality: that good growth performance allowed countries to attain political stability or liberalize their economies.


Economic Trends in Africa

Economic Trends in Africa
Author: Mr.Stéphane Cossé
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 54
Release: 1994-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451853149

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This paper highlights selected recent developments in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that the outlook for commodity prices has improved, and with it the outlook for economic activity beyond 1994; it also notes, however, the need for higher savings and investment to sustain growth over the medium term. The paper also covers two aspects of structural adjustment: the liberalization of exchange and trade systems, which has been extensive and has resulted in a sharp reduction in exchange market distortions; and the momentum of regional integration in the CFA countries and in the Southern Africa region.


Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Mr.Giovanni Melina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2019-01-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484394534

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We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.


Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes
Author: Mr.Nicola Spatafora
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 75
Release: 2012-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475558872

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The experience of developing countries over 1990-2010 indicates that commodity prices have a significant impact on fiscal outcomes. Both revenue and expenditure rise in response to commodity (import or export) price increases; the response of the fiscal deficit is ambiguous. A floating exchange rate regime only partially offsets the impact; foreign-exchange reserves do not dampen the effects. Hence, there is a strong case for fiscal hedging against commodity price shocks. Hedging instruments based on a limited set of benchmark world prices for a narrow set of commodities may suffice to realize most of the potential benefits.