International Commodity Prices And Civil War Outbreak PDF Download
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| Author | : Antonio Ciccone |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Civil war |
| ISBN | : |
Download International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but the exports shares they use are time varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely reflects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time varying export shares partly reflect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation. I also show that setting time-invariant export shares equal to average export shares over the sample period, can be a way of dealing with attenuation bias due to mismeasured export shares. When I differentiate between agricultural commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak following downturns in agricultural commodity prices.
| Author | : Stijn van Weezel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 12 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Commodity Prices, Growth, and Civil War Revisited Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Brückner and Ciccone (2010) find that there is a higher probability of the outbreak of civil war in Sub-Sahara Africa following downturns in the international commodity prices of the countries' main traded commodities. I use R to replicate their results which yields identical estimates but slight discrepancies in the standard errors due to a small sample adjustment, although this doesn't affect the level of statistical significance. Re-estimating the model using the latest data for 1981-2013 I am unable to find a strong link between commodity price shocks and civil war but do find that economic growth in OECD export countries negatively affects civil war onset.
| Author | : Edward Edwin Gellender |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 1901 |
| Genre | : Prices |
| ISBN | : |
Download The Effect of War on the Prices of Commoditioes, 1850-1900 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Paul Collier |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Civil war |
| ISBN | : |
Download On the Duration of Civil War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
| Author | : Isha Agrawal |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2017-12-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484333527 |
Download International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.
| Author | : Mr.Rabah Arezki |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 24 |
| Release | : 2010-03-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451963424 |
Download International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.
| Author | : Mr.Markus Eberhardt |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 53 |
| Release | : 2018-07-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484367820 |
Download Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
| Author | : Rupert Russell |
| Publisher | : Doubleday |
| Total Pages | : 229 |
| Release | : 2022-02-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 038554586X |
Download Price Wars Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A fascinating, groundbreaking exposé of how commodity traders in New York and London have destabilized societies all over the world, leaving the most vulnerable at the mercy of hunger, chaos, and war. • With a new Afterword for the ebook. For Rupert Russell, the Brexit vote was only the latest shock in a decade full of them: the unstoppable war in Syria, huge migrant flows into Europe, beheadings in Iraq, children placed in cages on the U.S. border. In Price Wars, he sets out on a worldwide journey to investigate what caused the wave of chaos that consumed the world in the 2010s. Russell travels to Tunisia, Iraq, Venezuela, Ukraine, East Africa, and Central America and discovers that unrest in all these places was triggered by dramatic and mysterious swings in the price of essential commodities. Deregulation of the commodities markets means that food prices can shoot up even in years of abundant harvests, causing hunger and protest. Oil prices and real-estate values can surge even when supplies are normal, enriching and emboldening dictators. It is this instability--fueled by banks and hedge funds in faraway New York and London--that has toppled regimes and unsettled the West. Price Wars is a fascinating, original, and groundbreaking exposé of the power of the commodities markets to disrupt the world.
| Author | : Atin Basuchoudhary |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 137 |
| Release | : 2021-10-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030819930 |
Download Identifying the Complex Causes of Civil War Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book uses machine-learning to identify the causes of conflict from among the top predictors of conflict. This methodology elevates some complex causal pathways that cause civil conflict over others, thus teasing out the complex interrelationships between the most important variables that cause civil conflict. Success in this realm will lead to scientific theories of conflict that will be useful in preventing and ending civil conflict. After setting out a current review of the literature and a case for using machine learning to analyze and predict civil conflict, the authors lay out the data set, important variables, and investigative strategy of their methodology. The authors then investigate institutional causes, economic causes, and sociological causes for civil conflict, and how that feeds into their model. The methodology provides an identifiable pathway for specifying causal models. This book will be of interest to scholars in the areas of economics, political science, sociology, and artificial intelligence who want to learn more about leveraging machine learning technologies to solve problems and who are invested in preventing civil conflict.
| Author | : Edward Newman |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 217 |
| Release | : 2014-04-24 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1134715358 |
Download Understanding Civil Wars Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This volume explores the nature of civil war in the modern world and in historical perspective. Civil wars represent the principal form of armed conflict since the end of the Second World War, and certainly in the contemporary era. The nature and impact of civil wars suggests that these conflicts reflect and are also a driving force for major societal change. In this sense, Understanding Civil Wars: Continuity and change in intrastate conflict argues that the nature of civil war is not fundamentally changing in nature. The book includes a thorough consideration of patterns and types of intrastate conflict and debates relating to the causes, impact, and ‘changing nature’ of war. A key focus is on the political and social driving forces of such conflict and its societal meanings, significance and consequences. The author also explores methodological and epistemological challenges related to studying and understanding intrastate war. A range of questions and debates are addressed. What is the current knowledge regarding the causes and nature of armed intrastate conflict? Is it possible to produce general, cross-national theories on civil war which have broad explanatory relevance? Is the concept of ‘civil wars’ empirically meaningful in an era of globalization and transnational war? Has intrastate conflict fundamentally changed in nature? Are there historical patterns in different types of intrastate conflict? What are the most interesting methodological trends and debates in the study of armed intrastate conflict? How are narratives about the causes and nature of civil wars constructed around ideas such as ethnic conflict, separatist conflict and resource conflict? This book will be of much interest to students of civil wars, intrastate conflict, security studies and international relations in general.
