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Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments

Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Author: Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2016-08-30
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1316654192

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This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.


Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
Author: David T. Moore
Publisher: Lulu.com
Total Pages: 160
Release: 2011-03-21
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 1257781804

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This National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. "...a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College.


Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst

Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst
Author: David A. Schum
Publisher:
Total Pages: 384
Release: 1987
Genre: Education
ISBN:

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This is the companion volume to the book described above. Volume II contains supplementary material for Chapters 3 through 12 in Volume I. These supplements contain various formal, logical, or mathematical arguments in support of assertions made in the chapters in Volume I. The supplements also contain additional topical examples of evidentiary and inferential matters discussed in the chapter of Volume I; the examples in eight of these supplements are numerical in nature and are designed to illustrate the operations of the various formal systems of probability/inference under consideration.


Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2020-03-05
Genre: History
ISBN: 1839743050

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In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.


Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher: CQ Press
Total Pages: 385
Release: 2014-05-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 148331202X

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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.


Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Author: Randolph H. Pherson
Publisher: CQ Press
Total Pages: 385
Release: 2020-01-14
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1506368948

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The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.


Advances in Intelligent Decision Technologies

Advances in Intelligent Decision Technologies
Author: Gloria Phillips-Wren
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 719
Release: 2010-07-19
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3642146163

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Intelligent Decision Technologies (IDT) seeks an interchange of research on intelligent systems and intelligent technologies which enhance or improve decision making in industry, government and academia. The focus is interdisciplinary in nature, and includes research on all aspects of intelligent decision technologies, from fundamental development to the applied system. This volume represents leading research from the Second KES International Symposium on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES IDT’10), hosted and organized by the Sellinger School of Business and Management, Loyola University Maryland, USA, in conjunction with KES International. The symposium was concerned with theory, design development, implementation, testing and evaluation of intelligent decision systems. Topics include decision making theory, intelligent agents, fuzzy logic, multi-agent systems, Bayesian networks, optimization, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms, expert systems, decision support systems, geographic information systems, case-based reasoning, time series, knowledge management systems, Kansei communication, rough sets, spatial decision analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize decision making in many areas of management, healthcare, international business, finance, accounting, marketing, military applications, ecommerce, network management, crisis response, building design, information retrieval, and disaster recovery.


Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Cases in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Sarah Miller Beebe
Publisher: CQ Press
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2014-04-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1483340155

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In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.


Knowledge Engineering

Knowledge Engineering
Author: Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 481
Release: 2016-09-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107122562

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Using robust software, this book focuses on learning assistants for evidence-based reasoning that learn complex problem solving from humans.