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Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area

Inspecting the Mechanism of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area
Author: Ralph S. J. Koijen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2019
Genre: Inflation targeting
ISBN:

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Using new data on security-level portfolio holdings by investor type and across countries in the euro area, we study portfolio rebalancing during the European Central Bank's (ECB) purchase programme that started in March 2015. To quantify changes in risk concentration, we estimate the evolution of the distribution of duration, government, and corporate credit risk exposures across investor sectors and regions until the last quarter of 2017. Using these micro data, we show that 60% of ECB purchases are sold by non-euro area investors, and we do not find evidence that risks get concentrated in certain sectors or geographies. We estimate a sector-level asset demand system using instrumental variables to connect the dynamics of portfolio rebalancing to asset prices. Our estimates imply that government yields declined by 47bp, on average, but the estimates range from -28bp to -57bp across countries.


The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area
Author: William Arrata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2018-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484389506

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Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks’ excess reserves. This unexpected development coincided with the start of the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and repo rates. We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect them. Using proprietary data from PSPP purchases and repo transactions for specific (“special") securities, we assess the scarcity channel of PSPP and its impact on repo rates. We estimate that purchasing 1 percent of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline of its repo rate of 0.78 bps. Using an instrumental variable, we find that the full effect may be up to six times higher.


Quantitative Easing and Its Impact in the US, Japan, the UK and Europe

Quantitative Easing and Its Impact in the US, Japan, the UK and Europe
Author: Kjell Hausken
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2013-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461496462

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This volume empirically analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on interest rates and the economy in the US, Japan, UK and Europe. Using an event-study methodology, the authors find that the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which focus primarily on bond purchases, are much more effective in lowering interest rates than those undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, which have relied more heavily on lending to private financial institutions. Using large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models they also analyze the impact of QE on the wider economy. They produce no-QE counterfactual forecasts that are compared with their corresponding baseline forecasts, incorporating the effects of QE on government bond spreads. Despite the failure of stimulating economic activities as a whole, the simulation results suggest that the unconventional monetary policies have a positive influence on industrial production in the US, UK and Japan. The authors’ analysis finds that QE contributes to the reduction in unemployment in the US and Japan, and a rise in inflation-expectations in the US, UK and Euro zone. However, evidence on QE’s effect on house prices, stock prices, consumer confidence, and exchange rate, is mixed and thus inconclusive.


Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach

Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach
Author: Florian Urbschat
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the effects of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) gradually introduced by the European Central Bank from September 2014 onwards. Studying the short-term reaction of financial markets after APP press releases, we analyse the development of bond yields and spreads around these releases. More precisely, we try to estimate different asset price channels by quantifying the cumulative decrease of spreads and by running event regressions for several Euro Area countries. Focusing on the signalling channel, measured by the OIS rate, and the portfolio rebalancing channel, proxied by the conditional bond-OIS spread, we find that the effects in yield and spread reduction were most pronounced for the initial announcement on the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) but declined afterwards for additional announcements. Possible explanations for this are the declining degree to which the ECB surprised markets and the increasingly burdensome institutional set-up of the APP. While yield reductions were larger for periphery countries' than for core countries' bonds, our evidence suggests that this stronger reduction is mostly due to a decreasing risk component of southern bonds. In fact, once controlling for this implicit credit risk reduction we find rather mild effects from portfolio rebalancing for all countries.


Quantitative Easing. An evaluation of its effectiveness for the European Central Bank

Quantitative Easing. An evaluation of its effectiveness for the European Central Bank
Author: Daniel Stiehle
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 14
Release: 2016-06-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668246017

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Essay from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 78%, University of Warwick, language: English, abstract: This Essay addresses Quantitative Easing and gives an evaluation of its effectiveness and whether or not it was necessary for the European Central Bank to launch its QE program announced in January 2015. In response to the Financial Crisis of 2008, Central Bankers sought to respond with aggressive monetary policy in order to prevent deflation and stimulate aggregate demand. However, since nominal interest rates were already historically low, following the era of ‘Great Moderation’, there was an increased likelihood of nominal interest rate policy being constrained by the Zero Lower Bound. Indeed, by early 2009, 4 major global Central Banks, namely the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) had lowered policy rates to their respective lower bounds. Taylor rule predictions advocated lower policy rates than those achieved by Central Banks at the effective Zero Lower Bound, motivating unconventional policy approaches, depending on individual Central Bank objectives. The ECB implemented QE policy more hesitantly, increasing the size of bank balance sheets by 50% immediately following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in contrast to the US and UK, whose bank sheets tripled in size. Due to the bank-centric nature of Eurozone economies, firms tend to fund investment through bank borrowing as opposed to money-markets. Hence the ECB adopted an approach of increasing the elasticity of supply of loans by accepting a wide range of assets as collateral and offering unlimited funds at a fixed rate. This served to increase the size of banks’ balance sheets, although bond purchases were subsequently carried out under the framework of the Covered Bond and Securities Markets Programme. The stated aim of QE was to suppress deflationary threats and encourage investment and consumption, although many question the purchase of bonds of heavily indebted states amidst the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010, which some suggest allows for the delay in structural, economic reform.


Euro Area Quantitative Easing in a Portfolio Balance Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Assets

Euro Area Quantitative Easing in a Portfolio Balance Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Assets
Author: Tina Koziol
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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We develop a portfolio balance model to study the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) on international financial asset returns through the portfolio balance channel. Our two-country model features heterogeneity in assets and investor preferences. Both are crucial for a meaningful model-based impact assessment of QE. Preferences for asset maturity, asset class (bonds, equities and currencies) and whether an asset is issued at home or abroad influence the substitutability of assets, which drives the portfolio balance effect of central bank asset purchases. We calibrate the two countries in our model to the euro area and a representative sample of rest-of-the-world (ROW) countries in order to estimate the international impact of the ECB's asset purchase program announced in January 2015. When simulating our model, we find that central bank asset purchases decrease both domestic and foreign yields. While the effects of QE on domestic yields and the exchange rate are rather modest and smaller than commonly assumed in the literature, domestic stock prices increase substantially.


Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing

Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing
Author: Shouyang Wang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642559344

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In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.