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Influence and Escalation

Influence and Escalation
Author: Rebecca Hersman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 71
Release: 2022-01-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1538140462

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Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. As a result, both nations use sub-conventional tactics and operations to support their preferred strategies for achieving favorable outcomes while attempting to limit escalation risks. Such strategies include an array of activities loosely identified as influence operations, focused on using and manipulating information in covert, deniable, or obscure ways to shape the strategic environment. This report presents eight scenarios—four focused on Russia and four focused on China—that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.


Countering Russian & Chinese Influence Activities

Countering Russian & Chinese Influence Activities
Author: Cyrus Newlin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre: Disinformation
ISBN:

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CSIS set out to analyze Russian influence activities in the United Kingdom and Germany and Chinese influence activities in Japan and Australia. We sought to better understand how these influence efforts play out in these four democracies and how these governments and societies have (or have not) responded. We examined which factors make countries particularly vulnerable to Chinese or Russian malign influence operations and identified the sources of resilience that enable democratic governments and polities to mitigate, fend off, or push back on malign efforts. We also sought to determine the degree to which China and Russia have been successful in influencing outcomes through their activities. Finally, we assess how the strategies and tactics used by Russia and China differ or converge.


Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats

Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats
Author: Vladlena Benson
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2019-09-27
Genre: Education
ISBN: 0128192054

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In the wake of fresh allegations that personal data of Facebook users have been illegally used to influence the outcome of the US general election and the Brexit vote, the debate over manipulation of social Big Data continues to gain more momentum. Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats addresses various emerging challenges in response to cybersecurity, examining cognitive applications in decision-making, behaviour and basic human interaction. The book examines the role of psychology in cybersecurity by addressing each factor involved in the process: hackers, targets, cybersecurity practitioners, and the wider social context in which these groups operate. Cyber Influence and Cognitive Threats covers a variety of topics including information systems, psychology, sociology, human resources, leadership, strategy, innovation, law, finance and others. Explains psychological factors inherent in machine learning and artificial intelligence Explores attitudes towards data and privacy through the phenomena of digital hoarding and protection motivation theory Discusses the role of social and communal factors in cybersecurity behaviour and attitudes Investigates the factors that determine the spread and impact of information and disinformation


Countering Russian Social Media Influence

Countering Russian Social Media Influence
Author: Elizabeth Bodine-Baron
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019-01-15
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9781977401823

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The Russian government's campaigns of disinformation--political, social, religious, or otherwise--have found a comfortable home on social media. This report presents strategies to counter Russian social media influence.


Changing the Narrative

Changing the Narrative
Author: Lawrence Freedman
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2023-10-13
Genre: History
ISBN: 1003857493

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Narratives provide the storylines of conflict and in doing so become an arena of conflict themselves. When states mount information campaigns against each other, they are trying to change the narrative. The digital platforms of the new information environment have been identified by various analysts as a significant factor in contemporary strategy and crisis management. But while social media is noisier and more chaotic than traditional media, and unprecedented in its immediacy and accessibility, has it thus far been a game changer in strategic affairs? In this Adelphi book, Sir Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams examine the impact of state-led digital information – or disinformation – campaigns in four contexts: the India–Pakistan crisis over Kashmir in 2019; the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020; China’s messaging in response to the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020–22; and the Russia–Ukraine crisis from 2013–23. While noting the meaningful consequences of digital information campaigns, in each case the authors call for a sense of perspective. Such campaigns are only one aspect of wider political struggles. They are also difficult for their initiators to control, and less likely to influence foreign audiences than domestic ones. Overall, the authors argue, there is little evidence so far to suggest such campaigns will have as much influence over contemporary crises as the classical instruments of military and economic power.


China’s Grand Strategy

China’s Grand Strategy
Author: Andrew Scobell
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 155
Release: 2020-07-27
Genre: History
ISBN: 1977404200

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To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.


China's Forbearance Has Limits

China's Forbearance Has Limits
Author: Paul H. B. Godwin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre: China
ISBN:

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This study assesses the context and motivations of the PRC's use of military force since 1949. It then extracts Beijing's use of its calculus of warning statements in detail from several instances in which it has threatened and, in some cases, actually followed through with the use of military force to resolve a dispute. It offers several points to take into account in watching for and analyzing Beijing's use of this warnings calculus in contemporary contexts, and it offers a hypothetical scenario in which this calculus might appear in the context of China's claims in the South China Sea. -- Excerpted from introduction.


Renewed Great Power Competition

Renewed Great Power Competition
Author: Ronald O'Rourke
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2019-08-22
Genre:
ISBN: 9781688018983

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World events in recent years have led observers, particularly since late 2013, to conclude that the international security environment in recent years has undergone a shift from the post-Cold War era that began in the late 1980s and early 1990s, also sometimes known as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power), to a new and different situation that features, among other things, renewed great power competition with China and Russia and challenges by these two countries and others to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II. The shift to renewed great power competition has become a major factor in the debate over future U.S. defense spending levels, and has led to new or renewed emphasis on the following in discussions of U.S. defense strategy, plans, and programs: * grand strategy and geopolitics as part of the context for discussing U.S. defense budgets, plans, and programs; * nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence;* new U.S. military service operational concepts;* U.S. and NATO military capabilities in Europe;* capabilities for conducting so-called high-end conventional warfare (i.e., largescale, high-intensity, technologically sophisticated warfare) against countries such as China and Russia; * maintaining U.S. technological superiority in conventional weapons;* speed of weapon system development and deployment as a measure of merit in defense acquisition policy;* mobilization capabilities for an extended-length large-scale conflict against an adversary such as China or Russia;* minimizing reliance in U.S. military systems on components and materials from Russia and China; and* capabilities for countering so-called hybrid warfare and gray-zone tactics employed by countries such as Russia and China.


The Paradox of Power

The Paradox of Power
Author: David C. Gompert
Publisher: Government Printing Office
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN: 9780160915734

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The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solutions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chinese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about.