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Inflation in Portugal

Inflation in Portugal
Author: Mr. Kamil Dybczak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2023-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.


From Crisis to Convergence

From Crisis to Convergence
Author: Mr.Dmitry Gershenson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2016-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147554832X

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In 2011, following years of large-scale external imbalances financed by debt, Portugal’s economy reached a crisis point. To restore economic growth and credibility with international lenders, the country embarked on a difficult path of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. By many metrics, Portugal’s 2011–14 macroeconomic stabilization program has been a success, but going forward Portugal would benefit from policies to reduce vulnerabilities, absorb labor slack, and generate sustainable growth.


A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal

A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal
Author: Alex Pienkowski
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2019-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513524860

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This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this model differentiates between shocks originating from both inside and outside the euro area, as well as domestic shocks, each of which have different implications for Portugal. This framework is also used to consider the dynamics of the Portuguese economy over recent decades. The model, which is designed to guide forecasts and undertake simulations, can easily be modified for use in other small euro area countries.


Portugal

Portugal
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2023-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Portugal: Selected Issues


Public Deficits and Inflation, Some More Results for Portugal

Public Deficits and Inflation, Some More Results for Portugal
Author: António Afonso
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper evaluates the existence of a relation between public deficits and inflation using quarterly data for Portugal. In theory, this link can be explained either through aggregate demand or via the monetization of the deficit. The results for the period 1978:2 1994:4 allow to accept the absence of effects of the government deficit upon the money supply or even upon the monetary base. It is, however, possible to validate the existence of a direct effect of the deficit on inflation.


Portugal

Portugal
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2016-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484311299

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This report discusses key issues related to the economy of Portugal. Highly accommodative macroeconomic conditions have generated only modest growth in the presence of remaining structural impediments. In 2015, low interest rates, a weak euro, and low oil prices remained largely in place, allowing growth to reach 1.5 percent. The 2016 budget proposal appears insufficiently ambitious to put public debt on a firmly downward trajectory, with significant risks to execution. Bank balance sheets need to be strengthened to avoid further negative surprises and protect taxpayers. Envisaged labor and product market policies imply at least a partial reversal of structural measures introduced during the IMF-supported program.