Incomplete Information Heterogeneous Beliefs And The Statistical Properties Of Asset Prices PDF Download
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| Author | : Tony Berrada |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2003 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Incomplete Information, Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Statistical Properties of Asset Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
I consider a pure exchange economy where the growth rate of aggregate consumption is mean reverting and unobservable. Agents have heterogenous beliefs which they continuously update. I study the properties of asset prices as they can be measured by an outside observer (objective probability). First, it is shown that under the objective probability, the market price of risk (Sharpe ratio) is larger than the complete information equivalent, if the agents with higher level of expectations about the growth rate also have higher level of conditional variances. I provide an analytical formula for the volatility of the stock price which identifies the respective contributions of information incompleteness and heterogeneity in beliefs. It is shown that the volatility can be higher or lower than the complete information case, depending on the parametrization. I found that a parametric specification which yields a high level of volatility necessarily implies a negative covariance of the stock return with the interest rate. Finally I discuss why asset returns appear predictable in the objective probability measure when agents rationally update their beliefs by taking into account the observable variations of the dividend.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Adaptive Beliefs and the Volatility of Asset Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
I present a simple model of an evolutionary financial market with heterogeneous agents, based on the concept of adaptive belief systems introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997a). Agents choose between different forecast rules based on past performance, resulting in an evolutionary dynamics across predictor choice coupled to the equilibrium dynamics. The model generates endogenous price fluctuations with similar statistical properties as those observed in real return data, such as fat tails and volatility clustering. These similarities are demonstrated for data from the British, German, and Austrian stock market. (author's abstract).
| Author | : Tony Berrada |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Incomplete Information, Heterogeneity, and Asset Pricing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We consider a pure exchange economy where the drift of aggregate consumption is unobservable. Agents with heterogeneous beliefs and preferences act competitively on financial and goods markets. We discuss how equilibrium market prices of risk differ across agents, and in particular we discuss the properties of the market price of risk under the physical (objective) probability measure. We propose a number of specifications of risk aversions and beliefs where the market price of risk is much higher, and the riskless rate of return lower, than in the equivalent full information economy (homogeneous and heterogeneous preferences) and thus can provide an(other) answer to the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles. We also derive a representation of the equilibrium volatility and numerically assess the role of heterogeneity in beliefs. We show that a high level of stock volatility can be obtained with a low level of aggregate consumption volatility when beliefs are heterogeneous. Finally, we discuss how incomplete information may explain the apparent predictability in stock returns and show that in-sample predictability cannot be exploited by the agents, as it is in fact a result of their learning processes.
| Author | : John G. Cragg |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 185 |
| Release | : 2009-05-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226116727 |
Download Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.
| Author | : Shu-Heng Chen |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 785 |
| Release | : 2018-01-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0190877502 |
Download The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
| Author | : Wayne Ferson |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 497 |
| Release | : 2019-03-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262039370 |
Download Empirical Asset Pricing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
| Author | : Kerry Back |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press, USA |
| Total Pages | : 504 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0195380614 |
Download Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Theory Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book covers the classical results on single-period, discrete-time, and continuous-time models of portfolio choice and asset pricing. It also treats asymmetric information, production models, various proposed explanations for the equity premium puzzle, and topics important for behavioral finance.
| Author | : Hersh Shefrin |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 636 |
| Release | : 2008-05-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0080482244 |
Download A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition
| Author | : Markus K. Brunnermeier |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 262 |
| Release | : 2001-01-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0191606928 |
Download Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Asset prices are driven by public news and information that is often dispersed among many market participants. These agents try to infer each other's information by analyzing price processes. In the past two decades, theoretical research in financial economics has significantly advanced our understanding of the informational aspects of price processes. This book provides a detailed and up-to-date survey of this important body of literature. The book begins by demonstrating how to model asymmetric information and higher-order knowledge. It then contrasts competitive and strategic equilibrium concepts under asymmetric information. It also illustrates the dependence of information efficiency and allocative efficiency on the security structure and the linkage between both efficiency concepts. No-Trade theorems and market breakdowns due to asymmetric information are then explained, and the existence of bubbles under symmetric and asymmetric information is investigated. The remainder of the survey is devoted to contrasting different market microstructure models that demonstrate how asymmetric information affects asset prices and traders' information , which provide a theoretical explanation for technical analysis and illustrate why some investors "chase the trend." The reader is then introduced to herding models and informational cascades, which can arise in a setting where agents' decision-making is sequential. The insights derived from herding models are used to provide rational explanations for stock market crashes. Models in which all traders are induced to search for the same piece of information are then presented to provide a deeper insight into Keynes' comparison of the stock market with a beauty contest. The book concludes with a brief summary of bank runs and their connection to financial crises.
| Author | : John H. Cochrane |
| Publisher | : Now Publishers Inc |
| Total Pages | : 117 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1933019158 |
Download Financial Markets and the Real Economy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
