Implementation Of Subjective Probability Estimates In Army Intelligence Procedures PDF Download
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Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : Decision making |
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Download Implementation of Subjective Probability Estimates in Army Intelligence Procedures Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
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Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 1980 |
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Download Implementation of Subjective Probability Estimates in Army Intelligence Procedures: A Critical Review of Research Findings Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The purpose of this report is to critically examine the formulation and expression of uncertainty in both the tactical intelligence estimate of enemy threat and the evaluation of information contained in spot reports. A study was made of both the doctrinal procedures for expressing uncertainty (FM 30-5) and the research conducted to detect problems in implementing these procedures. Findings showed that current procedures which focus on the use of terms such as 'probable' and 'unlikely' to express uncertainty are ambiguous communicators for both the user and the recipient. The use of numerical subjective probability estimates as an alternative procedure (e.g., '.70' instead of 'likely') is explored by relating the psychological research on the use of subjective probability estimates with the need of Army intelligence analysts to unambiguously express uncertainty. It is concluded that there is sufficient evidence indicating the superiority of the numerical estimates to recommend a trial implementation of the use of numerical subjective probabilities. General guidelines are discussed for the incorporation of numerical estimates in the analysis and communications of Army intelligence. (Author).
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Total Pages | : 954 |
Release | : 1980 |
Genre | : Military research |
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Download Research Report Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : |
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Total Pages | : 550 |
Release | : 1978 |
Genre | : Military research |
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Download Technical Report Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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Total Pages | : 500 |
Release | : 1986-04 |
Genre | : Science |
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Download Government Reports Announcements & Index Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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Total Pages | : 912 |
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Genre | : Science |
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Download Technical Abstract Bulletin Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Edgar M. Johnson |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 174 |
Release | : 1981 |
Genre | : Command and control systems |
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Download Bibliography, ARI Research on Command and Control (1970-80) Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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Total Pages | : 1316 |
Release | : 1981 |
Genre | : Research |
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Sections 1-2. Keyword Index.--Section 3. Personal author index.--Section 4. Corporate author index.-- Section 5. Contract/grant number index, NTIS order/report number index 1-E.--Section 6. NTIS order/report number index F-Z.
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Total Pages | : 912 |
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Genre | : Government publications |
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Download Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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Total Pages | : 628 |
Release | : 1983 |
Genre | : Government publications |
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