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Author | : Athanasios Orphanides |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2002 |
Genre | : Monetary policy |
ISBN | : |
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This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interaction between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. Our results highlight the value of effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring inflation expectations and fostering macroeconomic stability.
Author | : Vítor Gaspar |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 160 |
Release | : 2006-02-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781139448567 |
Download Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.
Author | : Athanasios Orphanides |
Publisher | : DIANE Publishing |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2010 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1437935613 |
Download Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.
Author | : Athanasios Orphanides |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 70 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Anti-inflationary policies |
ISBN | : |
Download Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Michael T. Kiley |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Inflation (Finance) |
ISBN | : |
Download Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Ben S. Bernanke |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 469 |
Release | : 2007-11-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226044734 |
Download The Inflation-Targeting Debate Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Author | : Christopher J. Erceg |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 44 |
Release | : 2001 |
Genre | : Inflation (Finance) |
ISBN | : |
Download Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Download Inflation Expectations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 545 |
Release | : 2013-06-28 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226066959 |
Download The Great Inflation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author | : Alberto Locarno |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 70 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Monetary policy |
ISBN | : |
Download Imperfect knowledge, adaptive learning and the bias against activist monetary policies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle