Impact Of Us Macroeconomic Surprises On Stock Market Returns In Developed Economies PDF Download
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| Author | : Brian M. Lucey |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 21 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Impact of US Macroeconomic Surprises on Stock Market Returns in Developed Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Macroeconomic conditions are known to affect risks factors and thereby influence asset returns within a given economy. We explore this link in a global setting. Given the dominant role the U.S. economy plays in the global economic environment, U.S. Macro economic shocks are expected to affect asset returns in other countries. The impact should be more pronounced in the developed economies where the U.S. is a large trading and capital-flows partner. Our results shows that residual returns and conditional volatilities in major developed economies are significantly impacted by US macroeconomic surprises. We identify U.S. macro economic shocks that have spillover impact on global asset returns over and above those transmitted through equity market returns. While return levels are significantly influenced by productivity and retail sales surprises, return conditional volatilities are mainly influenced by inflation, personal income, industrial production, leading indicators, and gross domestic product surprises.
| Author | : Brian M. Lucey |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Do U.S. Macroeconomic Surprises Influence Equity Returns? An Exploratory Analysis of Developed Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Given the dominant role the U.S. economy plays in global trade, we explore how U.S. macroeconomic surprises affect stock markets in ten major developed economies as well as in China and India. We do not find strong enough evidence to conclude that US macro shocks materially and consistently influence equity returns and volatilities in the economies studied. Consistent with previous research, it appears that only in few markets are return levels materially influenced by macro surprises generated in the U.S. Also, only a small number of macro shocks seem to be of any consistent significance. For returns levels, inflation, productivity, consumer confidence, and retail sales seem to matter. At the same time, conditional volatilities appear to be influenced by inflation, retail sales, durable goods, industrial production, consumer confidence, gross domestic product, and trade balance surprises. Finally, our exploratory analysis indicates that the degree of bilateral trade connectedness may partially explain the extent to which macroeconomic surprises are transmitted across countries.
| Author | : Dennis Sauert |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 27 |
| Release | : 2010-10-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3640720210 |
Download Do Macroeconomic Variables have an Effect on the US Stock Market? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
| Author | : Dennis Sauert |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2010-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3640720652 |
Download Do MacRoeconomic Variables Have an Effect on the Us Stock Market? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
| Author | : Mansour Alharaib |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 340 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Capital movements |
| ISBN | : |
Download Stock Market Returns and Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This study examines how stock market returns and volatility responses to macroeconomic news announcements in US and Europe, and oil prices. Moreover, the market risk associated with these stock markets based on selected countries and regions is also analyzed here. In all chapters, the data is in a weekly time horizon and it covers 21 countries from different contents. In particular, Data covers three different time periods, i.e. full sample from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2015, before the financial crisis, i.e. from 1/1/2000 to 9/27/2008 and after the financial crisis, i.e. from 10/11/2008 to 12/31/2015. Chapter 2 studies the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on stock markets in 21 countries using US and European countries macroeconomic news announcements. The first part investigates the impact of macroeconomic news announcements surprises in US and European Countries on stock markets returns in these countries. The second part analyzes the impact of macroeconomic news announcements in US and European Countries on stock markets volatility in these countries. Our results show that stock markets in selected countries react differently to macroeconomic news announcement in US and Europe. Chapter 3 study the interaction and volatility spillover between oil prices and stock markets returns and volatility in selected countries and regions. Oil prices are based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The analysis use VAR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model to capture the interdependence between stocks market and oil prices. The findings show that there is interdependence between stock markets and oil price changes in most selected countries and regions. Chapter 4 study the market risk in stock markets returns in selected countries and regions using IGARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1) to obtain the value at risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES). The findings of chapter 4 show that market risk was high for most selected countries before the financial crisis and low after the financial crisis.
| Author | : Norbert Funke |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2002-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze the impact of a broad set of macroeconomic news on stock prices in the United States and Germany. With GARCH specifications we test five hypotheses and find that news on real economic activity has a significant impact on stock prices. The effects vary between different types of stocks and depend on the state of the economy. In a boom period, bad economic news may be good news for stock prices. For German stock prices, international news is at least as important as domestic news. The analysis of bihourly data suggests that the main effect occurs within a short period of time.
| Author | : Tobias R. Rühl |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9783867885744 |
Download Discovering and Disentangling Effects of US Macro-Announcements in European Stock Markets Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
| Author | : Barbara Bedowska-Sojka |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Macroeconomic News Effects on the Stock Markets in Intraday Data Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The aim of the paper is to compare reactions of two stock markets, the German and the French, to releases of macroeconomic fundamentals emanating from Germany and the U.S. We examine the reaction of intraday returns and volatility of the CAC40 and the DAX indices to macroeconomic surprises. We find that both American and German macroeconomic releases cause an immediate response in returns and volatility of the German and the French stock market sampled at a five-minute frequency. The reaction to the American macroeconomic surprises is stronger than to the German ones.
| Author | : Jürgen von Hagen |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 331 |
| Release | : 2013-04-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475763905 |
Download Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Monetary union has dawned in Europe. Now that the common currency is a reality, questions concerning the practical conduct of monetary policy in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are moving to the forefront of the policy debate. Among these, one of the most critical is how the new monetary union will cope with the large heterogeneity of its member economies. Given the large differences in economic and financial structures among the EMU member states, monetary policy is likely to affect different member economies in different ways. Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe collects the proceedings of an international conference held at the Center for European Integration Studies of the University of Bonn, dedicated to this issue. The contributions to this conference fall into two parts. The first part consists of empirical and theoretical studies of the regional effects of monetary policy in heterogeneous monetary unions. The second part consists of papers analyzing the political economy of monetary policy in a monetary union of heterogeneous regions or member states. The papers all support the conclusion that regional differences in the responses to a common monetary policy will make European monetary policy especially difficult in the years to come. Such differences arise from a variety of sources, and they cannot be expected to be mere teething troubles that will disappear after a while. Even if they were ignored in the run-up to the EMU, Europe's central bankers and economic policy makers will have to learn how to cope with such differences in the future.
| Author | : Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 21 |
| Release | : 2013-11-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475513429 |
Download The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
