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Inequality, Leverage and Crises

Inequality, Leverage and Crises
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2013-12-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484311205

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The paper studies how high household leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of high-income households, a large increase in debt leverage of the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where higher leverage and crises arise endogenously in response to a growing income share of high-income households. The model matches the profiles of the income distribution, the debt-to-income ratio and crisis risk for the three decades prior to the Great Recession.


Inequality, Leverage and Crises

Inequality, Leverage and Crises
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2010-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455210757

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The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.


Inequality, Consumer Credit and the Saving Puzzle

Inequality, Consumer Credit and the Saving Puzzle
Author: Christopher Brown
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 199
Release: 2008-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1848443803

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. . . provides an excellent example of economic analysis using atypical analytical approaches. . . the book is very accessible, especially to readers with some grounding in economics. Mathematical models and empirical evidence are appropriately used and the writing is superb. Advanced undergraduates and graduate students should be able to follow the analysis and will benefit from seeing the alternative analytics at work. Of course economists of all stripes will find something useful in this book as will anyone with a strong interest in understanding the current economic crisis. Richard V. Adkisson, The Social Science Journal For those who do not mind a stimulating read, the book by Christopher Brown, Inequality, Consumer Credit and the Saving Puzzle, is recommended. . . the book is exciting, tracing the causes for the uncommonly low savings rate in American households. . . this book is written in nearly colloquial language and easily understood. It is divided into eight chapters, each of which addresses one theme group, respectively. The author evaluates in detail literary sources, and also examines alternative approaches, but always returns to his line of thought. Relationships that he perceives as important are exemplified through small models. In addition to that, he always attempts to support the central thesis with statistics. In particular, to read those statistics is very exciting. Conclusion: a book definitely worth reading. Friedrich Thießen, Bankhistorisches Archiv Brown makes an important contribution to the field of consumer credit by presenting a broad view of the issues and problems associated with growing consumer credit habits, culture, and institutions. . . This book effectively uses a heterodox methodology, which will appeal to a wide audience of social scientists. Highly recommended. R.H. Scott, Choice Providing much needed context for current events like the sub-prime mortgage crisis, this timely book presents a vision of an economy evolved to greater dependence on consumer credit and analyzes the trade-offs and risks associated with it. While synthesizing the Keynesian theory of consumption with the Institutional theory of habit selection (brought up to date with new knowledge from evolutionary biology and neuroscience), this book represents an in-depth treatment of the macroeconomic dimensions of consumer credit and implications of recent financial innovations from a non-traditional economic approach. Some of the effects of consumer credit dependence include the potential for illiquidity in markets for debt-collateralized securities, sub-prime contagion, or the possibility of a Minsky-type debt deflation episode. The author also argues that a sharp increase in borrowing by US households over the past 20 years, aided by financial innovations such as the securitization of consumer loans and sub-prime lending, have lessened the harmful consequences of income inequality, and that the collapse of personal saving after 1993 is actually a gradual trend of consumer habits conforming to the imperatives of corporatism. The book s primary audience will be academic economists in sympathy with heterodox and pluralist approaches. It sets forth an institutional or top-down theory of household spending behavior that should be of interest to readers in fields such as sociology, consumer or family studies, psychology, or anthropology. Much of the book is technically accessible for non-economists and students.


Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2012-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463936397

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This paper studies the empirical and theoretical link between increases in income inequality and increases in current account deficits. Cross-sectional econometric evidence shows that higher top income shares, and also financial liberalization, which is a common policy response to increases in income inequality, are associated with substantially larger external deficits. To study this mechanism we develop a DSGE model that features workers whose income share declines at the expense of investors. Loans to workers from domestic and foreign investors support aggregate demand and result in current account deficits. Financial liberalization helps workers smooth consumption, but at the cost of higher household debt and larger current account deficits. In emerging markets, workers cannot borrow from investors, who instead deploy their surplus funds abroad, leading to current account surpluses instead of deficits.


Exploring the Link Between Household Debt and Income Inequality

Exploring the Link Between Household Debt and Income Inequality
Author: Apostolos Fasianos
Publisher:
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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We investigate the relationship between household debt and income inequality in the US, allowing for asymmetry, using data over the period 1913-2008. We find evidence of an asymmetric cointegration between household debt and inequality for different regimes. Our results indicate household debt only responds to positive changes in income inequality, while there is no evidence of falling inequality significantly affecting household debt. The presence of this asymmetry provides further empirical insights into the emerging literature on household debt and inequality.


House of Debt

House of Debt
Author: Atif Mian
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2015-05-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022627750X

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“A concise and powerful account of how the great recession happened and what should be done to avoid another one . . . well-argued and consistently informative.” —Wall Street Journal The Great American Recession of 2007-2009 resulted in the loss of eight million jobs and the loss of four million homes to foreclosures. Is it a coincidence that the United States witnessed a dramatic rise in household debt in the years before the recession—that the total amount of debt for American households doubled between 2000 and 2007 to $14 trillion? Definitely not. Armed with clear and powerful evidence, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi reveal in House of Debt how the Great Recession and Great Depression, as well as less dramatic periods of economic malaise, were caused by a large run-up in household debt followed by a significantly large drop in household spending. Though the banking crisis captured the public’s attention, Mian and Sufi argue strongly with actual data that current policy is too heavily biased toward protecting banks and creditors. Increasing the flow of credit, they show, is disastrously counterproductive when the fundamental problem is too much debt. As their research shows, excessive household debt leads to foreclosures, causing individuals to spend less and save more. Less spending means less demand for goods, followed by declines in production and huge job losses. How do we end such a cycle? With a direct attack on debt, say Mian and Sufi. We can be rid of painful bubble-and-bust episodes only if the financial system moves away from its reliance on inflexible debt contracts. As an example, they propose new mortgage contracts that are built on the principle of risk-sharing, a concept that would have prevented the housing bubble from emerging in the first place. Thoroughly grounded in compelling economic evidence, House of Debt offers convincing answers to some of the most important questions facing today’s economy: Why do severe recessions happen? Could we have prevented the Great Recession and its consequences? And what actions are needed to prevent such crises going forward?


Household Debt, Consumption, and Monetary Policy in Australia

Household Debt, Consumption, and Monetary Policy in Australia
Author: Ms.Elena Loukoianova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2019-04-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498306489

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This paper discusses the evolution of the household debt in Australia and finds that while higher-income and higher-wealth households tend to have higher debt, lower-income households may become more vulnerable to rising debt service over time. Then, the paper analyzes the impact of a monetary policy shock on households’ current consumption and durable expenditures depending on the level of household debt. The results corroborate other work that households’ response to monetary policy shocks depends on their debt and income levels. In particular, households with higher debt tend to reduce their current consumption and durable expenditures more than other households in response to a contractionary monetary policy shocks. However, households with low debt may not respond to monetary policy shocks, as they hold more interest-earning assets.


Income Inequality

Income Inequality
Author: Matthew P. Drennan
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2015-11-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0300216343

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Prevailing economic theory attributes the 2008 crash and the Great Recession that followed to low interest rates, relaxed borrowing standards, and the housing price bubble. After careful analyses of statistical evidence, however, Matthew Drennan discovered that income inequality was the decisive factor behind the crisis. Pressured to keep up consumption in the face of flat or declining incomes, Americans leveraged their home equity to take on excessive debt. The collapse of the housing market left this debt unsupported, causing a domino effect throughout the economy. Drennan also found startling similarities in consumer behavior in the years leading to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession. Offering an economic explanation of a phenomenon described by prominent observers including Thomas Piketty, Jacob Hacker, Robert Kuttner, Paul Krugman, and Joseph Stiglitz, Drennan’s evenhanded analysis disproves dominant theories of consumption and draws much-needed attention to the persisting problem of income inequality.