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High consumption Volatility

High consumption Volatility
Author: Philippe Auffret
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2003
Genre: Caribbean Area
ISBN:

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A history of repeated external and domestic shocks has made economic insecurity a major concern across the Caribbean region. Of particular concern to all households, especially the poorest segments of the population, is the exposure to shocks that are generated by catastrophic events or natural disasters. The author shows that despite high consumption growth, the Caribbean region suffers from a high volatility of consumption that decreases household welfare. After presenting some empirical evidence that consumption volatility is higher in the Caribbean region than in the rest of the world, he makes some empirically testable inferences that help explain consumption volatility. The author develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the effects of catastrophic events on household and aggregate welfare. According to this framework, the volatility of consumption comes from production shocks that are transformed into consumption shocks mostly because of underdeveloped or ineffective risk-management mechanisms. Auffret conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of catastrophic events on 16 countries (6 from the Caribbean region and 10 from Latin America) from 1970-99 and shows that catastrophic events lead to: 1) A substantial decline in the growth of output. 2) A substantial decline in the growth of investment. 3) A more moderate decline in consumption growth (most of the decline is in private consumption, while public consumption declines moderately. 4) A worsening of the current account of the balance of payments.


High Consumption Volatility

High Consumption Volatility
Author: Philippe Auffret
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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A history of repeated external and domestic shocks has made economic insecurity a major concern across the Caribbean region. Of particular concern to all households, especially the poorest segments of the population, is the exposure to shocks that are generated by catastrophic events or natural disasters.Auffret shows that despite high consumption growth, the Caribbean region suffers from a high volatility of consumption that decreases household welfare. After presenting some empirical evidence that consumption volatility is higher in the Caribbean region than in the rest of the world, he makes some empirically testable inferences that help explain consumption volatility. The author develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the effects of catastrophic events on household and aggregate welfare. According to this framework, the volatility of consumption comes from production shocks that are transformed into consumption shocks mostly because of underdeveloped or ineffective risk-management mechanisms. Auffret conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of catastrophic events on 16 countries (6 from the Caribbean region and 10 from Latin America) from 1970-99 and shows that catastrophic events lead to:ʼn A substantial decline in the growth of output.ʼn A substantial decline in the growth of investment.ʼn A more moderate decline in consumption growth (most of the decline is in private consumption, while public consumption declines moderately).ʼn A worsening of the current account of the balance of payments.This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to assess the impact of catastrophic events on welfare.


Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility

Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2013-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475543980

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This paper examines the impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility using a dynamic panel analysis for 110 advanced and developing countries. We find that financial depth plays a significant role in dampening the volatility of output, consumption, and investment growth, but only up to a certain point. At very high levels, such as those observed in many advanced economies, financial depth amplifies consumption and investment volatility. We also find strong evidence that deeper financial systems serve as shock absorbers, mitigating the negative effects of real external shocks on macroeconomic volatility. This smoothing effect is particularly pronounced for consumption volatility in environments of high exposure - when trade and financial openness are high - suggesting significant gains from further financial deepening in developing countries.


Consumption Volatility Ambiguity and Risk Premium's Time-Variation

Consumption Volatility Ambiguity and Risk Premium's Time-Variation
Author: Janis Müller
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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In a consumption based asset pricing model one can calculate the volatility of (log-)consumption-growth from the expected market return and from the risk-free rate. We propose to use the difference between these estimates to measure ambiguity about consumption volatility. Using a long dataset we show that this measure explains up to 69% of post-war variation in the market risk premium.


External Habit in a Production Economy

External Habit in a Production Economy
Author: Andrew Y. Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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A standard real business cycle model with external habit and capital adjustment costs matches a long list of asset price and business cycle moments: equity, firm value, and risk-free rate volatility; the equity premium; excess return predictability; consumption growth predictability; basic moments of consumption, output, and investment; and more. The model also generates endogenous consumption volatility risk. Precautionary savings motives make consumption sensitive to shocks in bad times, leading to countercyclical volatility, even with homoskedastic technology shocks. Habit acts as countercyclical leverage, which amplifies this channel. Habit also implies high risk aversion, which amplifies the stock price response.


Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania
Author: Mr.Matthieu Bellon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2020-03-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513527010

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Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g. by education, ethnic group, and economic activity) and we quantify the impact that reducing consumption volatility would have on aggregate poverty. We then discuss coverage of consumption insurance mechanisms, including financial access and transfers. Country characteristics crucially determine which household-level shocks are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an important source of consumption risk as two thirds of households are involved in some level of agricultural production. For South Africa, we focus on labor market risk proxied by transitions from formal employment to informal work or unemployment. We find that access to credit, when available, and government transfers can effectively mitigate labor market shocks.


Asset Pricing

Asset Pricing
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 560
Release: 2009-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829135

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Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.


By Force of Habit

By Force of Habit
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
Total Pages: 76
Release: 1995
Genre: Capital assets pricing model
ISBN:

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We present a consumption-based model that explains the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. Our model has an i.i.d. consumption growth driving process, and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function. The latter feature produces cyclical variation in risk aversion, and hence in the prices of risky assets. Our model also predicts many of the difficulties that beset the standard power utility model, including Euler equation rejections, no correlation between mean consumption growth and interest rates, very high estimates of risk aversion, and pricing errors that are larger than those of the static CAPM. Our model captures much of the history of stock prices, given only consumption data. Since our model captures the equity premium, it implies that fluctuations have important welfare costs. Unlike many habit-persistence models, our model does not necessarily produce cyclical variation in the risk free interest rate, nor does it produce an extremely skewed distribution or negative realizations of the marginal rate of substitution.


Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2003-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451846991

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This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.