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Heuristics and Biases

Heuristics and Biases
Author: Thomas Gilovich
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 884
Release: 2002-07-08
Genre: Education
ISBN: 9780521796798

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This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.


The Heuristics Debate

The Heuristics Debate
Author: Mark Kelman
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2011
Genre: Law
ISBN: 0199755604

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All of use heuristics - that is, we reach conclusions using shorthand cues without utilizing or analyzing all of the available information at hand. Here, Kelman takes a step back from the chaos of competing academic debates to consider the wealth of knowledge that a more expansive use of heuristics can open up.


Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart

Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 432
Release: 2000-10-12
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0190286768

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Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.


Heuristics

Heuristics
Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Addison Wesley Publishing Company
Total Pages: 406
Release: 1984
Genre: Computers
ISBN:

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Problem-solving strartegies and the nature of Heuristic informatio n.Heuristics and problem representations. Basic Heuristic-Search procedures. Formal properties of Heuristic methods. Heuristics viewed as information provided by simplified models. Performance analysis of Heuristic methods. Abstract models for quantitative performace analysis. Complexity versus precision of admissible Heuristics. Searching with nonadmissible Heuristics. Game-playing programs. Strategies and models for game-playing programs. Performace analysis for game-searching strategies. Decision quality in game searching. Bibliography. Index.


Hyper-Heuristics: Theory and Applications

Hyper-Heuristics: Theory and Applications
Author: Nelishia Pillay
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 130
Release: 2018-10-05
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 331996514X

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This introduction to the field of hyper-heuristics presents the required foundations and tools and illustrates some of their applications. The authors organized the 13 chapters into three parts. The first, hyper-heuristic fundamentals and theory, provides an overview of selection constructive, selection perturbative, generation constructive and generation perturbative hyper-heuristics, and then a formal definition of hyper-heuristics. The chapters in the second part of the book examine applications of hyper-heuristics in vehicle routing, nurse rostering, packing and examination timetabling. The third part of the book presents advanced topics and then a summary of the field and future research directions. Finally the appendices offer details of the HyFlex framework and the EvoHyp toolkit, and then the definition, problem model and constraints for the most tested combinatorial optimization problems. The book will be of value to graduate students, researchers, and practitioners.


Judgment Under Uncertainty

Judgment Under Uncertainty
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 574
Release: 1982-04-30
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 9780521284141

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Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.


121 Heuristics for Solving Problems

121 Heuristics for Solving Problems
Author: Marco Aurelio de Carvalho
Publisher: Lulu.com
Total Pages: 348
Release: 2004-11-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1411616898

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Creative solutions are easily recognizable, after they have been created. But how to attain them? This book is about a promising approach to creative problem solving - the use of heuristics. The main purpose of an heuristic is to make problem solving more efficient, by making past experience - which could guide the generation of new solutions - promptly available. The heuristic approach is widely used in TRIZ (the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving), which is becoming increasingly popular worldwide. Successful results of using heuristics have been reported by companies such as ABB, Bosch, General Motors, Ford, Mitsubishi, Philips, Siemens, among others. With this book, the reader will be able to: - Understand the 121 Heuristics for problem solving, both from their descriptions and from selected examples; - Find the more promising Heuristic(s) for the solution of his/her problems; - Apply the heuristics and find creative solutions to his/her problems.


Meta-Heuristics

Meta-Heuristics
Author: Ibrahim H. Osman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 676
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461313619

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Meta-heuristics have developed dramatically since their inception in the early 1980s. They have had widespread success in attacking a variety of practical and difficult combinatorial optimization problems. These families of approaches include, but are not limited to greedy random adaptive search procedures, genetic algorithms, problem-space search, neural networks, simulated annealing, tabu search, threshold algorithms, and their hybrids. They incorporate concepts based on biological evolution, intelligent problem solving, mathematical and physical sciences, nervous systems, and statistical mechanics. Since the 1980s, a great deal of effort has been invested in the field of combinatorial optimization theory in which heuristic algorithms have become an important area of research and applications. This volume is drawn from the first conference on Meta-Heuristics and contains 41 papers on the state-of-the-art in heuristic theory and applications. The book treats the following meta-heuristics and applications: Genetic Algorithms, Simulated Annealing, Tabu Search, Networks & Graphs, Scheduling and Control, TSP, and Vehicle Routing Problems. It represents research from the fields of Operations Research, Management Science, Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science.


Heuristics in Analytics

Heuristics in Analytics
Author: Carlos Andre Reis Pinheiro
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2014-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118347609

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Employ heuristic adjustments for truly accurate analysis Heuristics in Analytics presents an approach to analysis that accounts for the randomness of business and the competitive marketplace, creating a model that more accurately reflects the scenario at hand. With an emphasis on the importance of proper analytical tools, the book describes the analytical process from exploratory analysis through model developments, to deployments and possible outcomes. Beginning with an introduction to heuristic concepts, readers will find heuristics applied to statistics and probability, mathematics, stochastic, and artificial intelligence models, ending with the knowledge applications that solve business problems. Case studies illustrate the everyday application and implication of the techniques presented, while the heuristic approach is integrated into analytical modeling, graph analysis, text analytics, and more. Robust analytics has become crucial in the corporate environment, and randomness plays an enormous role in business and the competitive marketplace. Failing to account for randomness can steer a model in an entirely wrong direction, negatively affecting the final outcome and potentially devastating the bottom line. Heuristics in Analytics describes how the heuristic characteristics of analysis can be overcome with problem design, math and statistics, helping readers to: Realize just how random the world is, and how unplanned events can affect analysis Integrate heuristic and analytical approaches to modeling and problem solving Discover how graph analysis is applied in real-world scenarios around the globe Apply analytical knowledge to customer behavior, insolvency prevention, fraud detection, and more Understand how text analytics can be applied to increase the business knowledge Every single factor, no matter how large or how small, must be taken into account when modeling a scenario or event—even the unknowns. The presence or absence of even a single detail can dramatically alter eventual outcomes. From raw data to final report, Heuristics in Analytics contains the information analysts need to improve accuracy, and ultimately, predictive, and descriptive power.


Heuristic Research

Heuristic Research
Author: Clark Moustakas
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Total Pages: 131
Release: 1990-07-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1452210756

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Well-organized and well-referenced, this book gives a clear presentation of heuristic methodology as a systematic form of qualitative research. Investigators of human experiences will find this book invaluable as a research guide. The author illustrates how heuristic concepts and processes form components of the research design and become the basis for a methodology. There is a clear explanation of how heuristic inquiry works in practice and the actual process of conducting a human science investigation is described in detail.